HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Press Release on December 30, 2008

Points to Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by HKUPOP in 2008, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of headline events reported by the local newspapers over the past three years can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". That may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 16 and 18 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that three months after the new Legco was formed, people's satisfaction with the performance of Legco members continues to stand at a negative level, meaning that the dissatisfaction rate is higher than the satisfaction rate. Both figures, however, remain the same as those registered three months ago. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has plunged 8 percentage points in three months, down to the level registered in March 2001, probably due to reports of police officers involved in sexual assaults. As for PLA Hong Kong Garrison, satisfaction rate has slightly dropped by 2 percentage points, within sampling error, while dissatisfaction rate remains at almost zero. Programme Director Robert Chung stresses that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical and functional constituencies, it is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 72%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 71.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail this kind of precision.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-18/12/2008	1,005	71.7%	+/-3%

Date of survey	19-24/12/07	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08*	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,026	1,003	1,003	1,005	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	25%	31%	25%	26%	26% +/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	27%	22%	23%	29%	29% +/-3%	--
Satisfaction rate of HKPF**	80%	73%	70%	70%	62% +/-3%	-8%#
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF**	5%	7%	8%	8%	15% +/-2%	+7%#
Satisfaction rate of PLA**	60%	57%	61%	58%	56% +/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA**	2%	1%	1%	2%	2% +/-1%	--

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in mid-December revealed that 26% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 29% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 62% were satisfied while 15% were dissatisfied. Besides, 56% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from September 17 to 19, 2008 while this survey was conducted from December 16 to 18, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
3/12/08	Taxi strike against new fare structure blocks highway.
2/12/08	Newspapers report and discuss the issue of Hong Kong people stranded in Thailand.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.
24/10/08	Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance.
17/10/08	Banks agrees to buy back the minibonds
15/10/08	Donald Tsang announces his 4th Policy Address.
14/10/08	HKSAR government guarantees all bank deposits.
12/10/08	HKSAR government makes great effort to rescue financial crisis.
6/10/08	Government urges the banks to buy back mini-bonds issued by Lehman.
3/10/08	Public consultation is launched to review the Control of Obscene and Indecent Articles Ordinance.
30/9/08	Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces 5 points emergency plan to ease the credit crunch in the banking system.
29/9/08	1) Market plunge after rescue plan throw out. 2) Melamine found in chocolates.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that three months after the new Legco was formed, people's satisfaction with the performance of Legco members continues to stand at a negative level, meaning that the dissatisfaction rate is higher than the satisfaction rate. Both figures, however, remain the same as those registered three months ago. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has plunged 8 percentage points in three months, down to the level registered in March 2001, probably due to reports of police officers involved in sexual assaults. As for PLA Hong Kong Garrison, satisfaction rate has slightly dropped by 2 percentage points, within sampling error, while dissatisfaction rate remains at almost zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. It should be noted, however, that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 31, 2008, Wednesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest figures of the 2008 year-end and 2009 forecast survey will be released. Then on January 6, 2009, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP Site will release the latest findings of 6 trust and confidence indicators.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkupop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

People's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison survey

Regarding the development of our surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison, we have explained it 9 times in our press releases issued between October 3, 2006 and September 30, 2008. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members

The First Legislative Council of the HKSAR was formed one year after the handover of Hong Kong. In July 1998, HKUPOP began our regular surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general. When the Second Legislative Council was formed two years later, we simply changed the name of the survey from "First Legco" to "Second Legco", without changing the research design. In October 2004, the "Third Legco" subsequently replaced the "Second Legco" while in December 2008, the "Fourth Legco" subsequently replaced the "Third Legco". From the beginning to its end, the "First Legco" surveys were conducted once every month. For the "Second Legco" surveys, the frequency was changed to once every two months until July 2003. Thereafter, the surveys are conducted once every three months to cope with the changing social conditions.

The question wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of HKSAR Legislative Council?". Interviewers then probed respondents' degree of satisfaction and respondents could choose a single response ranged from "very satisfied", "quite satisfied", "half-half", "not quite satisfied" to "very dissatisfied".

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison

Shortly after the handover of Hong Kong in July 1997, HKUPOP began our regular surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison. From the beginning, the surveys were conducted once every month. Then in September 2000 the frequency was changed to once every two months. Since October 2003, the surveys have been conducted once every three months to cope with the changing social conditions.

The question wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force / People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison?" Interviewers then probed respondents' degree of satisfaction and respondents could choose a single response ranged from "very satisfied", "quite satisfied", "half-half", "not quite satisfied" to "very dissatisfied".

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.