HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on December 23, 2008

Points to Note

Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by HKUPOP in 2008, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of headline events reported by the local newspapers over the past three years can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". That may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,005 Hong Kong people between 16 and 18 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has significantly increased, tentatively switching off the danger signal. In terms of support rating and approval rate, CE's popularity figures are slightly above those registered two months ago, when they dropped to another record low. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, dissatisfaction rate continues to climb, to its worst since February 2005. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, the satisfaction rate of maintaining economic prosperity plunged by 7 percentage points, also to record low since February 2005, no doubt due to the recent economic turmoil. The ranked order of people's satisfaction with government performance across the five policy areas is: relationship with the Central Government, protection of human rights, developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity and then improving people's livelihood. Three of these five areas have negative rates, the situation is far from perfect. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 72%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 71.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.3. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
16-18/12/2008	1,005	71.7%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22-24/10/08	5-7/11/08	18-24/11/08^	2-8/12/08	16-18/12/08*	Latest change
Sample base	1,018	1,003	1,006	1,004	1,005	--
Overall response rate	70.5%	67.9%	71.3%	67.6%	71.7%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.5	53.4	54.5	50.2	52.0 +/-1.3	+1.8#
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	45%	46%	41%	41% +/-3%	--
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	38%	34%	43%	40% +/-3%	-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	23%	--	31%	--	23% +/-3%	-8%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	28%	--	29%	--	38% +/-3%	+9%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 687 and 671 respectively.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in mid-December showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 52.0 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive while 40% opposes. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 23% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	19-24/12/07	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08	16-18/12/08*	Latest change
Sample base	1,019	1,026	1,003	1,003	1,005	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%	71.7%	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**	60%	64%	65%	55%	58% +/-3%	+3%
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**	13%	8%	10%	14%	12% +/-2%	-2%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**	48%	49%	43%	45%	46% +/-3%	+1%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**	19%	18%	23%	22%	21% +/-3%	-1%
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**	34%	37%	32%	30%	31% +/-3%	+1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**	32%	28%	33%	35%	32% +/-3%	-3%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**	54%	57%	42%	32%	25% +/-3%	-7%#
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**	18%	13%	22%	32%	37% +/-3%	+5%#
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**	29%	39%	28%	24%	25% +/-3%	+1%
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**	35%	26%	36%	41%	43% +/-3%	+2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state " sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 58%. The government's performance in protecting human rights followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 46%. Finally, a respective of 31%, 25% and 25% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on September 17, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 17 to 19, 2008 while this survey was conducted from 16-18/12/08. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/12/08	46 people suffer burns from the acid-attack in Mongkok.
10/12/08	The three-day Central Economic Work Conference ends in Beijing.
9/12/08	Bird flu outburst in a chicken farm in Yuen Long.
8/12/08	Hong Kong SAR government announces a massive rescue package.
3/12/08	Taxi strike against new fare structure blocks highway.
2/12/08	Newspapers report and discuss the issue of Hong Kong people stranded in Thailand.
1/12/08	The government arranges charter flights to pick up residents in Thailand.
29/11/08	2,000 restaurants are to introduce "$1-meal" next month.
19/11/08	Hopewell Holdings cut down the size of its long-proposed Wan Chai Mega Tower.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%.
17/11/08	HSBC announces it will slash 450 jobs in Hong Kong.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.
9/11/08	Mainland pledges a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package to boost economy.
7/11/08	1) HSBC cuts its prime lending rate by a quarter percentage point. 2) DBS Group to cut 900 jobs.
29/10/08	Premier Wen Jiabao issued five pledges to help Hong Kong ride out the global financial storm.
27/10/08	Hang Seng Index dives 12.7 percent.
24/10/08	Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance.
22/10/08	SFC launched formal investigation into the affairs of CITIC.
21/10/08	Citic Pacific stock losses $17.5bn in a day.
20/10/08	Citic Pacific faces $15bn losses on currency bets.
18/10/08	Financial turmoil leads economic downturn.
17/10/08	1) Tailin undergoes liquidity. 2) Banks agrees to buy back the minibonds.
16/10/08	Toymaker Smart Union Group (Holdings) closes factories in Dongguan.
15/10/08	Donald Tsang announces his 4th Policy Address.
14/10/08	HKSAR government guarantees all bank deposits.
12/10/08	HKSAR government makes great effort to rescue financial crisis.
10/10/08	Stock bloodbath as fear prevails.
9/10/08	U-Right International went into liquidation due to financial difficulties.
6/10/08	Government urges the banks to buy back mini-bonds issued by Lehman.
3/10/08	Public consultation is launched to review the Control of Obscene and Indecent Articles Ordinance.
1/10/08	China National Day celebrates achievement.
30/9/08	Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces 5 points emergency plan to ease the credit crunch in the banking system.
29/9/08	Melamine found in chocolates.
28/9/08	Shenzhou VII spacecraft returns to earth.
27/9/08	China astronaut's first spacewalk.
25/9/08	Shenzhou VII successfully blasts off.
24/9/08	Rumors panic BEA customers.
21/9/08	1) 5 Hongkongers perish and one injure in club fire at Shenzhen. 2) The worst of financial turmoil not yet over.
20/9/08	Hong Kong first kidney stone case due to tainted milk.
17/9/08	Poison milk concealed for 3 years infects more than 6000 babies.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has significantly increased, tentatively switching off the danger signal. In terms of support rating and approval rate, CEs popularity figures are slightly above those registered two months ago, when they dropped to another record low. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, dissatisfaction rate continues to climb, to its worst since February 2005. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, the satisfaction rate of maintaining economic prosperity plunged by 7 percentage points, also to record low since February 2005, no doubt due to the recent economic turmoil. The ranked order of people's satisfaction with government performance across the five policy areas is: relationship with the Central Government, protection of human rights, developing democracy, maintaining economic prosperity and then improving people's livelihood. Three of these five areas have negative rates, the situation is far from perfect. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 30, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkupop.hk.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it 11 times in our press releases issued between August 22, 2006 and September 23, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"

Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.