HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and Tibet issuesBack

Press Release on December 18, 2008

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,016 Hong Kong people between 9 and 12 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan and Tibet issues has not changed much. Other than the drop in people's confidence in reunification across the strait, all variations are within sampling errors. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at almost 80%, while their confidence in reunification and the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan remains positive. About half opposes to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, which is lower than that opposing the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. As for the drop in people's confidence in reunification, because the figures were registered before media's widespread coverage of the "cross-straits three big direct links", how these figures would change after the "three direct links" started remains to be seen. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 69%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,016 successful interviews, not 1,016 x 69.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and Tibet issues. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
9-12/12/2008	1,016	69.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	11-14/12/07	12-14/3/08	11-13/6/08	10-12/9/08	9-12/12/08	Latest change
Sample base	1,011	1,017	1,012	1,006	1,016	--
Overall response rate	65.1%	65.8%	67.4%	62.2%	69.3%	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	82%	80%	81%	79%	79% +/-3%	--
Taiwan independence: Support rate	10%	12%	11%	11%	12% +/-2%	+1%
Tibet independence: Opposition rate	69%	71%	82%	80%	78% +/-3%	-2%
Tibet independence: Support rate	10%	11%	7%	7%	9% +/-2%	+2%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	49%	56%	59%	59%	53% +/-3%	-6%#
No-confidence in cross-strait reunification	38%	33%	31%	29%	35% +/-3%	+6%#
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	66%	58%	46%	49%	47% +/-3%	-2%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	20%	25%	37%	33%	35% +/-3%	+2%
Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to Taiwan	52%	61%	60%	59%	58% +/-3%	-1%
Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to Taiwan	34%	27%	29%	29%	29% +/-3%	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results obtained in mid-December revealed that 79% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 12% showed support. Meanwhile, 78% objected Tibet becoming independent whilst only 9% held a positive view. Besides, 53% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 35% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 47% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 35% supported it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 58% gave a positive view while 29% gave a negative answer.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on September 6, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 10-12, 2008 while this survey was conducted from 9-12/12/2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/11/08	Former Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian is in custody for money-laundering.
6/11/08	The meeting between Taiwan's leader Ma Ying-jeou and Chen Yunlin lasts for 8 minutes.
4/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials sign four agreements for cross-strait co-operation.
3/11/08	ARATS and SEF officials start negotiations for further co-operation across the straits.
2/11/08	Chen Yunlin visits Taiwan.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, Hong Kong people's opinion towards Taiwan and Tibet issues has not changed much. Other than the drop in people's confidence in reunification across the strait, all variations are within sampling errors. People's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and Tibet remains high, at almost 80%, while their confidence in reunification and the applicability of 'one country, two systems' to Taiwan remains positive. About half opposes to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, which is lower than that opposing the independence of Taiwan. This shows that some people are quite sympathetic to Taiwan's quest for more international space. As for the drop in people's confidence in reunification, because the figures were registered before media's widespread coverage of the 'cross-straits three big direct links', how these figures would change after the 'three direct links' started remains to be seen. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of different figures, readers are free to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 23, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Taiwan issues and Tibet issues

Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Taiwan issues. We have explained the development of the Taiwan and Tibet issues surveys and that of the "appraisal of past Chinese leaders" survey in our press releases of September 18, 2007, April 11, June 19 as well as September 16, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can refresh their memory on such development.

(1) Taiwan issues

Two years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions.

In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?"

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Tibet issue

As for the Tibet issues survey, we began our regular surveys on the independence of Tibet in June 1993. From the beginning to April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months. Since June 2000 onwards, the frequency of this survey was changed to once every three months to cope with the social development.

The question wordings used in the survey are, "Do you agree to Tibet becoming independent?".

Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Tibet issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of Taiwan issues and Tibet issues surveys are released online via POP Site.