HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureauxunder the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on December 9, 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong people between 2 and 8 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that after recovering some grounds last month, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang drop again, his support rating now stands at 50.2 marks, with approval rate 2 percentage-points below disapproval rate. In terms of support rating, Tsang's figure is now at record low since we started polling his popularity in April 1997. For the Secretaries of Departments, the support ratings of CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang are both at record low since they took up their current posts, quite like the CE. The popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung, however, have remained high, unaffected by the recent mishaps. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee plunges 20 percentage points. He has dropped out of the 'successful' list, but is still the most popular Director of Bureau. Other Directors of Bureaux whose approval rates have registered changes beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, whose approval rate goes up by 8 percentage points, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, whose approval rate drops 6 percentage points, and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, whose approval rate goes up by 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of 'ideal' performance. Wong Yan-lung can be labeled as 'successful', Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, York Chow, John Tsang, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Denise Yue, Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Tsang Tak-sing, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. Director of POP Robert Chung observes, the popularity plunge of the CE and the Secretary for Security is no doubt due to the Thailand charter flights incident. The fact that CE's popularity rating is just marginally above 50 marks is a dangerous signal. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.4 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 687 and 671 respectively. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. ^ The approval rates of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung are 47.00% and 46.96% respectively in 2 decimal places. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 50.2 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 53.0, 50.8 and 59.4 marks, and 40%, 37% and 59% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top three approval rates fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung with respective support rates of 49%, 47% and 47%. The 4th to 6th ranks went to Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, with respective support rates of 37%, 36% and 30%. The 7th to 11th ranks went to Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung and gained 29%, 28%, 25%, 24% and 23% vote of confidence from the public respectively. The 12th rank went to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan, achieving 20% of public support. In other words, no Directors of Bureaux can score approval rates of over 50%. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information. In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on August 11, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from November 5 to 7, 2008 while this survey was conducted from 2-8/12/2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that after recovering some grounds last month, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang drop again, no doubt due to the Thailand charter flights incident. CE Tsang's support rating now stands at 50.2 marks, with approval rate 2 percentage-points below disapproval rate. In terms of support rating, Tsang's figure is now at record low since we started polling his popularity in April 1997. The fact that it is just marginally above 50 marks is a dangerous signal. For the Secretaries of Departments, the support ratings of CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang are both at record low since they took up their current posts, quite like the CE. The popularity figures of SJ Wong Yan-lung, however, have remained high, unaffected by the recent mishaps. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the approval rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee plunges 20 percentage points, due to the impact of the charter flights incident. Lee has now dropped out of the 'successful' list, but he is still the most popular Director of Bureau. Other Directors of Bureaux whose approval rates have registered changes beyond sampling errors include Secretary for Food and Health York Chow, whose approval rate goes up by 8 percentage points, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng, whose approval rate drops 6 percentage points, and Secretary for Development Carrie Lam, whose approval rate goes up by 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of 'ideal' performance. Wong Yan-lung can be labeled as 'successful', Ambrose Lee, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, York Chow, John Tsang, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Denise Yue, Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Tsang Tak-sing, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, other than the Thailand charter flights incident, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
A new grading system was adopted last year for the HKCEE Chinese Language and English Language, whereby the old 'pulling curve' system using a six-grade norm reference approach was replaced by a standard-referenced approach with six grades from Level '1' to '5*'. This should have deepened people's understanding of the standard-referenced approach, which is fairly similar to POP's grading system of principal officials. We therefore would not object to community members using Level '1' to '5*' to describe the popularity of principle officials. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December16, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest findings of people's ethnic identity will be released. POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will release tomorrow, December 10, WPO's next round of international polling results on the Universal Declaration on Human Rights. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys 19 times in our press releases issued between October 31, 2006 and November 11, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can review such development. (1) Development of CE's popularity survey
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
