HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on November 25, 2008

Abstract

HKUPOP interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong people between 18 and 24 November by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that after setting their record lows in late-October, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to recover for the second time, back to the level registered in July and August this year. CE can now grasp some breath. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, its satisfaction rate has rebounded 8 percentage points, but it is still only 2 percentage points above its dissatisfaction rate, and there is still no room for complacency. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 71%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 71.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
18-24/11/2008	1,006	71.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	8-10/10/08	15/10/08^	22-24/10/08	5-7/11/08	18-24/11/08*	Latest Change
Sample base	1,007	1,011	1,018	1,003	1,006	--
Overall response rate	61.9%	74.9%	70.5%	67.9%	71.3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	52.7	53.9	51.5	53.4	54.5 +/- 1.3	+1.1
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	44%	44%	39%	45%	46% +/- 3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39%	34%	39%	38%	34% +/- 3%	-4%#
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	--	23%	--	31% +/- 3%	+8%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	--	28%	--	29% +/- 3%	+1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 687 and 671 respectively.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in late-November showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.5 marks, and 46% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 34% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 31% were satisfied, whereas 29% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from October 22 to 24, 2008 while this survey was conducted from November 18 to 24, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/11/08	Hopewell Holdings cut down the size of its long-proposed Wan Chai Mega Tower.
18/11/08	The latest HK unemployment rate rises to 3.5%.
17/11/08	HSBC announces it will slash 450 jobs in Hong Kong.
14/11/08	HK economy shrinks for a second quarter as global crisis bites.
12/11/08	The Legislative Council will investigate the Lehman Brothers minibonds affair.
10/11/08	HKSAR Government announces a HK$10 billion loans special scheme for small and medium-sized enterprises.
9/11/08	Mainland pledges a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package to boost economy.
8/11/08	ICAC principal investigator Alan Wu Tat-sun dies in motorcycle accident.
7/11/08	1) HSBC cuts its prime lending rate by a quarter percentage point. 2) DBS Group to cut 900 jobs.
29/10/08	Premier Wen Jiabao issued five pledges to help Hong Kong ride out the global financial storm.
27/10/08	Hang Seng Index dives 12.7 percent.
24/10/08	1) Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance. 2) The global financial crisis is spreading.
22/10/08	SFC launched formal investigation into the affairs of CITIC.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "After setting their record lows in late-October, the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to recover for the second time, back to the level registered in July and August this year. CE can now grasp some breath. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, compared to a month ago, its satisfaction rate has rebounded 8 percentage points, but it is still only 2 percentage points above its dissatisfaction rate, and there is still no room for complacency. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 2, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys 18 times in our press release issued between August 22, 2006 and October 28, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.