HKU POP SITE releases 6 latest trust and confidence indicatorsBack

Press Release on November 6, 2008

Special Announcement

Starting from July this year, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. At present WPO consists of research centers from over 20 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will release WPO's next round of international polling results next Tuesday, including findings from the Greater China Region.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people between 27 and 29 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to two months ago, 4 of the 6 trust and confidence indicators have dropped significantly, including people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China, "one country, two systems" and people's trust in the SAR government. However, people's trust in the Beijing Central and Taiwan governments has increased significantly. People's current level of confidence in Hong Kong's future, and their trust in the local government, are both at record low since early 2005. Their trust in the central government is now 13 percentage points higher than that of the local government, the biggest gap registered since the end of 2003. On the whole, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and "one country, two systems" still remains high, in spite of recent drops. Their trust in the central government remains positive, but their trust in the Taiwan government remains negative. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 70.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background

Since December 1992 and continuously for 15 years, POP has been regularly surveying Hong Kong people's opinion on the trust in cross-strait governments, as part of our survey series on national issues. All surveys on people's trust in Taiwan government conducted in or before June 1999 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our POP Site was established in June 2000, we gradually move our survey items on-line one by one. Because the issue of Taiwan has become a focus of public attention recently, and cross-strait relations is entering a new stage after the Taiwan presidential election, POP has decided to collate all previous findings on people's trust in Taiwan government together, and present them along with those of HKSAR and Central governments for public reference. As for previous findings already published in our POP Express, they are available in the "Archive" section of our POP Site.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
27-29/10/2008	1,015	70.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	28-29/2/08	23-25/4/08	18-20/6/08	25-26/8/08	27-29/10/08	Latest Change
Sample base	1,007	1,029	1,003	1,065	1,015	--
Overall response rate	69.2%	68.1%	70.3%	70.3%	70.3%	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	66%	60%	62%	45%	41%+/-3%	-4%#
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	5%	7%	12%	16%	21%+/-3%	+5%#
Trust in Beijing Government**	52%	55%	58%	49%	54%+/-3%	+5%#
Distrust in Beijing Government**	15%	13%	12%	14%	15%+/-2%	+1%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	7%	19%	23%	12%	15%+/-2%	+3%#
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	53%	29%	20%	40%	46%+/-3%	+6%#
Confidence in HK's future	83%	80%	73%	74%	67%+/-3%	-7%#
No-confidence in HK's future	12%	15%	19%	20%	25%+/-3%	+5%#
Confidence in China's future	88%	88%	88%	89%	84%+/-2%	-5%#
No-confidence in China's future	8%	8%	8%	7%	11%+/-2%	+4%#
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	75%	77%	71%	74%	69%+/-3%	-5%#
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	18%	17%	21%	20%	25%+/-3%	+5%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.13, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in late-October revealed that 41% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 54% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 15% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 67% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 84% had confidence in China's future, while 69% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 25 to 26, 2008 while this survey was conducted from October 27 to 29, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/10/08	Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance.
18/10/08	Financial turmoil leads economic downturn.
17/10/08	Banks agrees to buy back the minibonds.
15/10/08	Donald Tsang announces his 4th Policy Address.
14/10/08	HKSAR government guarantees all bank deposits.
12/10/08	HKSAR government makes great effort to rescue financial crisis.
6/10/08	Government urges the banks to buy back mini-bonds issued by Lehman.
3/10/08	Public consultation is launched to review the Control of Obscene and Indecent Articles Ordinance.
1/10/08	China National Day celebrates achievement.
30/9/08	Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces 5 points emergency plan to ease the credit crunch in the banking system.
29/9/08	Melamine found in chocolates.
28/9/08	Shenzhou VII spacecraft returns to earth.
27/9/08	China astronaut's first spacewalk.
25/9/08	Shenzhou VII successfully blasts off.
24/9/08	Rumors panic BEA customers.
22/9/08	Head of the General Administration of Quality Supervision resigns to take the blame of dairy contamination scandal.
20/9/08	Hong Kong first kidney stone case due to tainted milk.
17/9/08	Poison milk concealed for 3 years infects more than 6000 babies.
16/9/08	Melamine found in milk manufactured by 22 companies.
13/9/08	Sanlu Group tainted-milk producer told to halt production.
10/9/08	Consumer price inflation on the mainland at August drops to a 14-month low.
8/9/08	Liberal Party has a shock loss and DAB emerges as the biggest winner at LegCo election.
7/9/08	2008 Legislative Council election ends with a turnout of only 45%.
6/9/08	Newspapers report and discuss LegCo election.
5/9/08	Hang Seng Index slippes below 20,000 points.
28/8/08	Hong Kong and the mainland signed a new energy deal.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, 4 of the 6 trust and confidence indicators have dropped significantly, including people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China, 'one country, two systems' and people's trust in the SAR government. However, people's trust in the Beijing Central and Taiwan governments has increased significantly. People's current level of confidence in Hong Kong's future, and their trust in the local government, are both at record low since early 2005. Their trust in the central government is now 13 percentage points higher than that of the local government, the biggest gap registered since the end of 2003. On the whole, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and 'one country, two systems' still remains high, in spite of recent drops. Their trust in the central government remains positive, but their trust in the Taiwan government remains negative. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of our opinion figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 7, 2008 Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive Council will be released. Then on November 11, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will release WPO's next round of international polling results on November 11, 2008, next Tuesday, including findings from the Greater China Region.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments as well as their confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of the surveys, we have explained it 18 times in our press release issued between August 22, 2006 and October 28, 2008. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by the HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(3) Mapping people's confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

In December 1992, our survey series on people's confidence started. With respect to people's confidence in Hong Kong, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in HK's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until April 1998 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

As for people's confidence in China's future, the frequency was not quite stable at the beginning. Beginning in July 1997, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in China's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month at the beginning, but between January 1998 and July 2001, only 5 surveys were conducted on an irregular basis. Then, in August 2001, the survey began its regular course of development, and has been conducted once every two months since then.

As for people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the survey started in June 1993. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you have confidence in 'one country, two systems?". Surveys were conducted once every two months, until May 1995 when it was changed to once every month, but were later on changed to once every two months since February 1998. It has remained unchanged since then.

Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to June 2000, the sample size of "people's confidence in HK's future" / "one country, two systems" survey was set at slightly over 500, while starting from May 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's confidence in China's future", since July 2001, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.

The above findings have all been published regularly on-line via our HKU POP Site, while all the previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded in various formats.