HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
| Press Release on November 4, 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement Starting from July this year, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. At present WPO consists of research centers from over 20 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will release WPO's next round of international polling results next Tuesday, including findings from the Greater China Region. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors last month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that the popularity structure of Legco members has changed significantly with the formation of the new Legco. Firstly, half of the 'top 10' Legco members in our last survey have left the Council, they are Rita Fan, Anson Chan, James Tien, Selina Chow and Martin Lee. They are replaced by three re-elected members with relatively lower recognition rates, Fred Li, Albert Ho and Tam Yiu-chung, plus two new faces, Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man. Moreover, the popularity ratings of most re-elected 'top 10' members have dropped, more or less indicating people's dissatisfaction of the current political and social environment. In terms of relative ranking, Audrey Eu replaces Rita Fan at the top of the list, followed by Fred Li, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho, whose ratings are quite close together. Then come Regina Ip, Tam Yiu-chung and Emily Lau, all of whom score over 50 marks, followed by Jasper Tsang, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung, all of whom score less than 50. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 1.8 while the response rate of the rating survey is 71%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,004 successful interviews, not 1,004 x 67.7% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 70.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Wong Yuk-man, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-October, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. [ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey conducted in late-October showed that Audrey Eu was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 60.2 marks while Fred Li, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho ranked the 2nd to 4th with 56.4, 56.3 and 55.5 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 7th ranks went to Regina Ip, Tam Yiu-chung and Emily Lau with respective scores of 53.5, 52.2 and 52.0 marks. Jasper Tsang and Wong Yuk-man occupied the 8th and 9th rank with 45.4 and 43.3 marks correspondingly. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 39.0 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 56.4 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.4 marks. For this latest survey, Albert Chan and Lau Kong-wah obtained support ratings of 49.0 and 47.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. ^ Former Legislative Councillors The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that four Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Lee Cheuk-yan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 55.2 marks, Emily Lau, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung ranking the 2nd to 4th, attaining 51.5, 49.9 and 35.4 marks correspondingly. Rita Fan, Audrey Eu, Anson Chan, James Tien, Selina Chow and Martin Lee have been on the list for three times and ranked 5th to 10th with 68.2, 62.7, 57.8, 57.0, 55.4 and 50.6 marks. Albert Ho have been on the list twice and ranked 11th with 53.2 marks. Fred Li, Regina Ip, Tam Yiu-chung and Wong Yuk-man have been on the list once and ranked 12th to 15th. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information. In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception. For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 9 to 10, 2008 while this survey was conducted from October 22 to 24, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity structure of Legco members has changed significantly with the formation of the new Legco. Firstly, half of the 'top 10' Legco members in our last survey have left the Council, they are Rita Fan, Anson Chan, James Tien, Selina Chow and Martin Lee. They are replaced by three re-elected members with relatively lower recognition rates, Fred Li, Albert Ho and Tam Yiu-chung, plus two new faces, Regina Ip and Wong Yuk-man. Moreover, the popularity ratings of most re-elected 'top 10' members have dropped, more or less indicating people's dissatisfaction of the current political and social environment. In terms of relative ranking, Audrey Eu replaces Rita Fan at the top of the list, followed by Fred Li, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho, whose ratings are quite close together. Then come Regina Ip, Tam Yiu-chung and Emily Lau, all of whom score over 50 marks, followed by Jasper Tsang, Wong Yuk-man and Leung Kwok-hung, all of whom score less than 50. It should be noted that our list of top 10 only includes Legislative Councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'top 10' list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 6, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest figures on the popularity of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future will be released. Then on November 7, 2008, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive Council. Then on November 11, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. POP will release WPO's next round of international polling results on November 11, 2008, next Tuesday, including findings from the Greater China Region. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP Ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors survey The Legislative Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Legislative Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since 1992. We have explained the development of these surveys 8 times in our press release between November 2, 2006 and July 15, 2008. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development:
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| | Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
