HKU POP SITE releases the results of the Policy Address second round follow-up surveyBack
| Press Release on October 30, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement Starting from July this year, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. At present WPO consists of research centers from over 20 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. WPO will release its next round of international polling results in about 10 days, including findings from the Greater China Region. Please stay alert. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract POP interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong people between 27 and 29 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people's satisfaction with CE Donald Tsang's fourth Policy Address goes up to 24%, but their dissatisfaction rate also goes up to 35%. Likewise, people's satisfaction and dissatisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction both increase 3 percentage points, meaning that public opinion is somewhat polarized. People's rating of the Policy Address now stands at 51.3 marks, roughly the same as CE's latest personal rating. According to our latest survey, most people still agree that "Embracing New Challenges" is an appropriate theme for the Policy Address, somewhat like last survey. Among the 4 major challenges spelled out by the CE himself, namely, dealing with external economic environment, balancing social interests, meeting public demands for a quality life and winning the public's trust in the government, our last survey shows that the public was only confident in CE Donald Tsang's ability in handling the economic challenge. For the remaining three, they all have negative rates of between 26 to 51 percentage points. In our latest survey, probably because of the deteriorating economy, Donald Tsang's confidence score regarding the economy has plunged 7 percentage points, while the negative rates of the other three items have increased to 33 to 52 percentage points. Regarding the change of opinion regarding the issue of Old Age Allowance, our two surveys show that more than 60% disagreed to CE's proposal to introduce a means test mechanism. However, after the CE shelved his proposal, slightly more people said they lost confidence in the CE than those who said their confidence have increased, at 22% versus 18%, although about 60% said their confidence level remained unchanged. In-depth analysis shows that 14% opposed to the proposal before, and increased their confidence in the CE after he shelved it, 3% supported the proposal before, and increased their confidence in the CE afterwards. However, 9% said they supported the proposal before, but lost confidence after CE shelved it, another 12% opposed the proposal before, but when CE shelved it, they lost their confidence in the CE. This explains why slightly more people lost confidence in the CE overall. POP Director Robert Chung sums up, all three rounds of Policy Address surveys have found that people's satisfaction of Donald Tsang's fourth Address is lower than his previous three. External factors are no doubt important, but SARG's internal governance and CE's personal leadership style should also be reviewed. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.6. The response rate of the survey is 70%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,015 successful interviews, not 1,015 x 70.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.6. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Background Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. Starting from 2008, we split up previous years' instant survey into two surveys. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and CE's popularity. Two days later, we started to conduct our second survey, which mainly studies people's reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. There is no change for follow-up polls following weeks after the instant polls. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues: measure people's instant reaction to the policies, and then repeat in our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. Our Policy Address's first and second surveys this year were released on October 16 and 21 respectively, while the findings of the follow-up poll are released today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures The findings of the second round survey of Policy Address released by POP SITE today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
Results of the follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant and second surveys, are tabulated below:
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. ^ Excluding respondents who were not clear about the Policy Address. The sub-sample size was 515. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Latest survey revealed that 24% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 35% were dissatisfied. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 51.3 marks. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 25% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 35% were not satisfied. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, relevant findings are summarized below: Results showed that 54% thought the theme of the Policy Address "Embracing New Challenges" concurred with the current needs of the society while 23% did not think so. Besides, Donald Tsang said Hong Kong was then facing 4 major challenges, including how to deal with severe external economic environment, balance social interests, win the public's trust in the government and meet public demands for a quality life. Findings showed that a respective of 35%, 20%, 19% and 13% of respondents believed he could successfully beat the above four challenges whereas 35%, 55%, 52% and 65% held an opposite view in corresponding order. Since CE announced to call back his proposal of the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance applicants on October 24, we added two related questions in the follow-up survey. Latest results, together with the second round survey, are tabulated below:
** In the follow-up survey, the question was revised as "Donald Tsang had proposed to introduce a means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance applicants. Yet, he later on called back this proposal. Did you agree or disagree with his proposal in the beginning?". Regarding Donald Tsang's proposal of introducing a means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance applicants, the follow-up survey shows that 32% agreed to his proposal while 62% disagreed in the beginning. The results were similar to those before the proposal was called back. Besides, those who had gained, no change in or lost confidence in the CE after the proposal was withdrawn were 18%, 59% and 22% respectively. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Since 1992, HKUPOP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. From 1998 onwards, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In February this year after the Budget Talk, we modified our instant survey operation by splitting it into two. Our first round of survey would concentrate on satisfaction rates and related ratings, while our second round would focus on specific policy proposals. Our purpose is to shorten the time of our operation to collect opinion data for public consumption. In free and democratic societies, instant surveys are indispensable sources of free information. Combined with appropriate follow-up surveys, and in parallel to expert analyses, they give a multi-dimensional picture of opinion development. They are an important part of a society's interactive development. It so happens that less than a day after CE Donald Tsang delivered his Policy Address, from 09:00 to 10:30 Hong Kong Time the following day, the American presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain had their final television debate. At 10:27, CBS announced its instant poll result to show that Obama has won the debate. Locally, some critics have repeatedly said that instant polls are useless. Maybe they should also study the situation overseas. According to our Policy Address instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of the Address, 31% said they were satisfied. However, in our second survey, the figure dropped to 19%, while dissatisfaction rate increased from 26% to 31%. After another 10 days, following CE's decision to shelve his proposal to introduce a means test for Old Age Allowance, people's satisfaction rate goes up to 24%, but their dissatisfaction rate also goes up to 35%. Likewise, people's satisfaction and dissatisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction both increase 3 percentage points, meaning that public opinion is somewhat polarized. People's rating of the Policy Address now stands at 51.3 marks, roughly the same as CE's latest personal rating. Regarding the polarization of opinion, the following analysis may help. According to our latest survey, most people still agree that "Embracing New Challenges" is an appropriate theme for the Policy Address, somewhat like last survey. Among the 4 major challenges spelled out by the CE himself, namely, dealing with external economic environment, balancing social interests, meeting public demands for a quality life and winning the public's trust in the government, our last survey shows that the public was only confident in CE Donald Tsang's ability in handling the economic challenge. For the remaining three, they all have negative rates of between 26 to 51 percentage points. In our latest survey, probably because of the deteriorating economy, Donald Tsang's confidence score regarding the economy has plunged 7 percentage points, while the negative rates of the other three items have increased to 33 to 52 percentage points. Regarding the change of opinion regarding the issue of Old Age Allowance, our two surveys show that more than 60% disagreed to CE's proposal to introduce a means test mechanism. However, after the CE shelved his proposal, slightly more people said they lost confidence in the CE than those who said their confidence have increased, at 22% versus 18%, although about 60% said their confidence level remained unchanged. In-depth analysis shows that 14% opposed to the proposal before, and increased their confidence in the CE after he shelved it, 3% supported the proposal before, and increased their confidence in the CE afterwards. However, 9% said they supported the proposal before, but lost confidence after CE shelved it, another 12% opposed the proposal before, but when CE shelved it, they lost their confidence in the CE. This explains why slightly more people lost confidence in the CE overall. To sum up, all three rounds of Policy Address surveys have found that people's satisfaction of Donald Tsang's fourth Address is lower than his previous three. External factors are no doubt important, but SARG's internal governance and CE's personal leadership style should also be reviewed. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 4, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors will be released. Then on November 6, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest figures on the popularity of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future. POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP The development and operation of the Policy Address follow-up surveys In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the Policy Address and the Budget Speech are delivered. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. Since the establishment of HKSAR, we began our Policy Address follow-up survey and our operation has not changed much since then. By "follow-up survey", we mean a survey which is conducted after several weeks when the Policy Address is delivered, in order to gauge people's more matured reaction. We have explained the development of our Policy Address follow-up surveys in the press release of October 25, 2007. Today, we release an updated version with some editing, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.
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| | Special Announcement | Abstract | Background | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP | | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
