HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on October 28, 2008

Special Announcement

Starting from July this year, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated and managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. At present WPO consists of research centers from over 20 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. WPO will soon release another round of international polling results, including findings from the Greater China Region. Please stay alert.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong people between 22 and 24 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that both the popularity of CE and the government is at record low since Donald Tsang became CE in 2005. Using the sub-sample of October 24 as the base, after CE decided to shelve his idea to introduce a means test for Old Age Allowance, and compared CE's popularity figures to those of October 22 to 23, we found that both figures have slightly rebounded, meaning that CE's announcement has a slight effect in recovering his popularity, but not that of the government. POP Director Robert Chung compliments the CE for his respect for public opinion when he shelved his proposal, but he said it would be even better if CE could grasp the underlying reasons for his popularity depression. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 71%. Two days later, POP will release its findings of the Policy Address follow-up survey. It will analyze the effect of CE's announcement on people's satisfaction of his Policy Address.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,018 successful interviews, not 1,018 x 70.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is below +/-1.3 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level for percentage figures, and +/-1.3 for rating figure".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2008. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
22-24/10/08	1,018	70.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-5/9/08	17-19/9/08	8-10/10/08	15/10/08^^	22-24/10/08*	Latest Change^
Sample base	1,010	1,003	1,007	1,011	1,018	--
Overall response rate	68.7%	63.6%	61.9%	74.9%	70.5%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.8	52.3	52.7	53.9	51.5 +/-1.3	-2.4#
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	41%	42%	44%	44%	39% +/-3%	-5%#
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	41%	36%	39%	34%	39% +/-3%	+5%#
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	25%	--	--	23% +/-3%	-2%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	--	30%	--	--	28% +/-3%	-2%

* Sampling errors calculated at "95% confidence level", meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.13, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
^^ These questions only use sub-samples of the survey concerned. The sub-sample sizes of questions on CE's support rating and hypothetical voting were 687 and 671 respectively.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in late-October showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.5 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive while another 39% opposed. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 23% were satisfied, whereas 28% were dissatisfied. Because the survey happened to concur with CE Donald Tsang's announcement of dropping the means test on Old Age Allowance on October 24, POP therefore breaks down the figures on a daily basis to facilitate further analysis, as follows:

Date of survey	22-23/10/08	24/10/08	Change	22-24/10/08
Sample base	722	296	--	1,018
Overall response rate	--	--	--	70.5%
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	51.3 +/-1.5	52.0 +/-2.6	+0.7	51.5 +/-1.3
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	38% +/-4%	41% +/-6%	+3%	39% +/-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	39% +/-4%	40% +/-6%	+1%	39% +/-3%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	23% +/-3%	21% +/-5%	-2%	23% +/-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	27% +/-4%	29% +/-5%	+2%	28% +/-3%

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 17 to 19, 2008 while this survey was conducted from October 22 to 24, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/10/08	Chief Executive calls back his decision on the means test mechanism to Old Age Allowance.
18/10/08	Financial turmoil leads economic downturn.
17/10/08	1) Tailin undergoes liquidity. 2) Banks agrees to buy back the minibonds.
15/10/08	Donald Tsang announces his 4th Policy Address.
14/10/08	HKSAR government guarantees all bank deposits.
12/10/08	HKSAR government makes great effort to rescue financial crisis.
9/10/08	U-Right International went into liquidation due to financial difficulties.
6/10/08	Government urges the banks to buy back mini-bonds issued by Lehman.
3/10/08	Public consultation is launched to review the Control of Obscene and Indecent Articles Ordinance.
30/9/08	Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces 5 points emergency plan to ease the credit crunch in the banking system.
20/9/08	Hong Kong first kidney stone case due to tainted milk.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

The latest tracking survey was conducted by POP from October 22 to 24, accidentally right before and after CE Donald Tsang withdrew his proposal to introduce a means test for Old Age Allowance on October 24. POP therefore seized this unplanned opportunity to further analyze the effect of this policy change on the popularity of the CE and the government. As a matter of fact, since POP opened the feature page of "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site" in January 2007, readers can freely select their own survey items and significant events and conduct their own analysis of daily changes, in order to form their own judgment. The following is just one such example.

POP conducted the previous survey of CE Donald Tsang's popularity on October 15, right after CE delivered his policy address, and his rating at that time was 53.9 while his approval rate was 44%. In that address, CE proposed to introduce a means test for Old Age Allowance.

On October 24, CE decided to shelve the idea. Before that day, POP happened to finish 70% of the fieldwork for the latest tracking survey. The remaining 30% was completed in the evening after CE made the announcement.

Using the full sample interviewed from October 22 to 24 and compared to figures registered on October 15, Tsang's support rating dropped significantly by 2.4 marks, while his approval rate dropped significantly by 5 percentage points. His rating is record low since he became CE in 2005.

However, if we use the sub-sample of October 24 as the base, and compared CE's popularity figures to those of October 22 to 23, we can see that Tsang's popularity has slightly rebounded, immediately after he withdrew his proposal. However, if we compared the October 24 figures to those of October 15, they have still dropped. This means that CE's announcement has only a slight effect in recovering his popularity.

As for the popularity of the SAR government, compared to one month ago, people's overall satisfaction rate is still falling. It is still negative (meaning that dissatisfaction rate is higher than satisfaction rate), and also at record low since Donald Tsang became CE in 2005. Further analysis of the government's popularity figures during our fieldwork period between October 22 and 24 shows that CE's shelving of his proposal did not help to boost the government's popularity.

While we should compliment the CE for his respect for public opinion when he shelved his proposal, it would be even better if he could grasp the underlying reasons for his popularity depression.

Two days later, POP will release our findings of the Policy Address follow-up survey. We will analyze the effect of CE's announcement on people's satisfaction of his Policy Address.

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 30, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the findings of Policy Address follow-up survey will be released. Then on November 4, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys 17 times in our press release issued between August 22, 2006 and September 23, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.