HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on October 14, 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 8 and 10 October by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have not changed much, they seem to be getting stabilized. Compared to late September, both his support rating and approval rate have slightly increased, but both within sampling errors. For the Secretaries of Departments, the approval rates of both CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang Chun-wah have continued to drop, to record lows since they took up their current posts. SJ Wong Yan-lung's approval rate, however, has gone up against the tide, and stays at a relatively high level. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago in terms of approval rates, 6 officials have registered changes beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Food and Health York Chow registered the biggest change, as his approval rate plunged 11 percentage points to a record low since he took office, also 11 percentage points below his disapproval rate. The second biggest change goes to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, as his approval rate went up by 9 percentage points. Next is Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, whose approval rate dropped by 7 percentage points, followed by Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, whose approval rate went up by 7 percentage points. Then comes Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, whose approval rate dropped by 6 percentage points, followed by Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, whose approval rate went up by 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of 'ideal' performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 'successful', Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Ceajer Chan, York Chow, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. Robert Chung, Director of POP, observed, all in all, the popularity figures of the CE and the principal officials have been floating up and down over the last month. Exactly how the government would address the critical economic and livelihood issues in CE's policy address, and to seize this opportunity to re-shuffle the Executive Council and review the accountability system of principal officials, would be a critical factor affecting the future popularity of the government. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-2 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 62%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 61.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-2 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voie system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 52.7 marks, and 44% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.5, 52.2 and 58.9 marks, and 44%, 41% and 60% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 65%. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung with respective support rates of 50%, 46%, 38% and 33%. Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Transport, Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah shared the 6th rank as both gained 31% vote of confidence from the public. Meanwhile, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing shared the 9th rank with respective support rate of 28%. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan and Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung shared the 11th rank, achieving 23% of public support. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information. In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on August 11, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 1 to 5, 2008 while this survey was conducted from October 8 to 10, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have not changed much, they seem to be getting stabilized. Compared to late September, both his support rating and approval rate have slightly increased, but both within sampling errors. For the Secretaries of Departments, the approval rates of both CS Henry Tang and FS John Tsang Chun-wah have continued to drop, to record lows since they took up their current posts. SJ Wong Yan-lung's approval rate, however, has gone up against the tide, and stays at a relatively high level. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago in terms of approval rates, 6 officials have registered changes beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Food and Health York Chow registered the biggest change, as his approval rate plunged 11 percentage points to a record low since he took office, also 11 percentage points below his disapproval rate. The second biggest change goes to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan, as his approval rate went up by 9 percentage points. Next is Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, whose approval rate dropped by 7 percentage points, followed by Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau, whose approval rate went up by 7 percentage points. Then comes Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, whose approval rate dropped by 6 percentage points, followed by Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung, whose approval rate went up by 5 percentage points. All in all, the popularity figures of the CE and the principal officials have been floating up and down over the last month. Exactly how the government would address the critical economic and livelihood issues in CE's policy address, and to seize this opportunity to re-shuffle the Executive Council and review the accountability system of principal officials, would be a critical factor affecting the future popularity of the government. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, no official now falls under the categories of 'ideal' performance. Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 'successful', Carrie Lam, Henry Tang, Donald Tsang, John Tsang, Michael Suen, Ceajer Chan, York Chow, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Edward Yau, Eva Cheng, Denise Yue and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
A new grading system was adopted last year for the HKCEE Chinese Language and English Language, whereby the old 'pulling curve' system using a six-grade norm reference approach was replaced by a standard-referenced approach with six grades from Level '1' to '5*'. This should have deepened people's understanding of the standard-referenced approach, which is fairly similar to POP's grading system of principal officials. We therefore would not object to community members using Level '1' to '5*' to describe the popularity of principle officials. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. Since CE Donald Tsang will announce his 4th Policy Address tomorrow, we will release the survey findings of people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address the next day between 1pm and 2 pm. Then on October 21, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will releases the results of second round of Policy Address Survey. POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys 19 times in our press releases issued between October 31, 2006 and September 9, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can review such development. (1) Development of CE's popularity survey
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| | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
