HKU POP SITE releases figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

Sponsored by a number of organizations but designed and conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong, findings from the 2008 Legislative Council election exit poll is now available from the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. Due to the existence of some skeptical cases, POP has decided to eradicate all cases en bloc from polling stations which appear to contain skeptical cases. This means reducing the number of polling stations from 120 to 106, and reducing the number of successful cases from 9,706 to 8,755. POP regrets at such data loss.

POP interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 17 and 19 September by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that towards the end of term of the Third HKSAR Legco, compared to three months ago, our survey finds that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has significantly increased. Satisfaction rate now stands at a negative level, first time since the end of last year that people's dissatisfaction rate gets higher than the satisfaction rate. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has remained stable in the past three months, while people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has slightly dropped 3 percentage points, with dissatisfaction rate remains almost zero. Programme Director Robert Chung stresses that people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical and functional constituencies, it is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. The sampling error of the survey is between +/-1 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, response rate being 64%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 63.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail this kind of precision.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison (PLA) and the Hong Kong Police Force (HKPF). As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
17-19/9/08	1,003	63.6%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	17-21/9/07	19-24/12/07	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,019	1,026	1,003	1,003		--
Overall response rate	65.5%	66.2%	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding /Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Satisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	32%	25%	31%	25%	26%	+/-3%	+1%
Dissatisfaction rate of overall performance of Legco members**	20%	27%	22%	23%	29%	+/-3%	+6%#
Satisfaction rate of HKPF**	82%	80%	73%	70%	70%	+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of HKPF**	3%	5%	7%	8%	8%	+/-2%	--
Satisfaction rate of PLA**	65%	60%	57%	61%	58%	+/-3%	-3%
Dissatisfaction rate of PLA**	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	+/-1%	+1%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Results of survey conducted in mid-September 2008 revealed that 26% of the respondents were satisfied with the overall performance of the Legco members, and 29% were dissatisfied. As for the performance of the HKPF, 70% were satisfied while 8% were dissatisfied. Besides, 58% were satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, whereas only 2% were dissatisfied.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the \POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from September 17 to 19, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/9/08	2008 Legislative Council election ends with a turnout of only 45%.
6/9/08	Newspapers report and discuss LegCo election.
16/8/08	Donald Tsang says Secretary for Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee do not need to step down.
15/8/08	Leung Chin-man quit his job with New World China Land.
19/7/08	38 nominations receveid for Legislative Council election on the first day of nomination period.
16/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam- kuen has unveiled an HK$11 billion inflation relief package.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Towards the end of term of the Third HKSAR Legco, compared to three months ago, our survey finds that people's dissatisfaction with the performance of Legco members has significantly increased. Satisfaction rate now stands at a negative level, first time since the end of last year that people's dissatisfaction rate gets higher than the satisfaction rate. As for the two disciplinary forces, people's satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force has remained stable in the past three months, while people's satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison has slightly dropped 3 percentage points, with dissatisfaction rate remains almost zero. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. It should be noted, however, people's satisfaction with Legco members in general includes those returned by geographical as well as functional constituencies. It is not a direct measurement of individual Legco members' performance. Readers can also check on people's satisfaction of Legco members throughout the 3 Legco sessions since the establishment of the HKSAR."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. As next Tuesday is a public holiday, POP Site will release our survey result on October 8, 2008, Wednesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

People's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison survey

Regarding the development of our surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members, Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison, we have explained it in our press release of October 3, 2006, January 2, April 10, July 10, October 2, 2007, January 4, March 27 as well as June 27, 2008. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members

• The First Legislative Council of the HKSAR was formed one year after the handover of Hong Kong. In July 1998, HKUPOP began our regular surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of Legislative Council members in general. When the Second Legislative Council was formed two years later, we simply changed the name of the survey from "First Legco" to "Second Legco", without changing the research design. In October 2004, the "Third Legco" subsequently replaced the "Second Legco". From the beginning to its end, the "First Legco" surveys were conducted once every month. For the "Second Legco" surveys, the frequency was changed to once every two months until July 2003. Thereafter, the "Third Legco" surveys are conducted once every three months to cope with the changing social conditions.



• The question wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of HKSAR Legislative Council?". Interviewers then probed respondents' degree of satisfaction and respondents could choose a single response ranged from "very satisfied", "quite satisfied", "half-half", "not quite satisfied" to "very dissatisfied".

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison

• Shortly after the handover of Hong Kong in July 1997, HKUPOP began our regular surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA's Hong Kong Garrison. From the beginning, the surveys were conducted once every month. Then in September 2000 the frequency was changed to once every two months. Since October 2003, the surveys have been conducted once every three months to cope with the changing social conditions.



• The question wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force / People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison?" Interviewers then probed respondents' degree of satisfaction and respondents could choose a single response ranged from "very satisfied", "quite satisfied", "half-half", "not quite satisfied" to "very dissatisfied".

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.