HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on September 23, 2008

Special Announcement

Sponsored by a number of organizations, the 2008 Legislative Council election rolling poll designed and conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now complete. Its major findings and charts have been uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. POP is still organizing its exit poll data, and would be able to upload its findings onto the POP Site within a week.

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 17 and 19 September by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have slightly increased over the last two weeks, but within sampling errors. However, his disapproval rate has dropped significantly, back to its early August level. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, it has now turned negative. This is the first time since February 2005 that people's dissatisfaction rate gets higher than the satisfaction rate. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, although the opinion structure has basically remained unchanged, meaning that the ranked order of satisfaction remains to be government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, protection of human rights, maintenance of economic prosperity, developing democracy, and then improving people's livelihood, people's satisfaction of the government's relationship with the Central Government and its maintenance of economic prosperity have both plunged 10 percentage points. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 63.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
17-19/9/08	1,003	63.6%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-16/7/08	1-4/8/08	18-20/8/08	1-5/9/08	17-19/9/08		Latest change^
Sample base	1,181	1,009	1,000	1,010	1,003		--
Overall response rate	64.4%	69.0%	69.6%	68.7%	63.6%		--
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95 % confidence level)*	+/-1.2	+/-1.3	+/-1.3	+/-1.3	+/-1.2		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question/Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	54.5	54.8	54.1	51.8	52.3	+/-1.2	+0.5
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	45%	43%	39%	41%	42%	+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	33%	36%	41%	41%	36%	+/-3%	-5%#
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	30%	--	30%	--	25%	+/-3%	-5%#
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	25%	--	30%	--	30%	+/-3%	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating +/-1.2, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey conducted in mid-September showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 52.3 marks, and 42% supported him as the Chief Executive while 36% opposes. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 30% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-21/9/07	19-24/12/07	18-20/3/08	18-20/6/08	17-19/9/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,019	1,026	1,003	1,003		--
Overall response rate	65.5%	66.2%	65.7%	70.3%	63.6%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding /Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**	70%	60%	64%	65%	55%	+/-3%	-10%#
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**	9%	13%	8%	10%	14%	+/-2%	+4%#
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**	54%	48%	49%	43%	45%	+/-3%	+2%
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**	17%	19%	18%	23%	22%	+/-3%	-1%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**	58%	54%	57%	42%	32%	+/-3%	-10%#
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**	16%	18%	13%	22%	32%	+/-3%	+10%#
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**	36%	34%	37%	32%	30%	+/-3%	-2%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**	32%	32%	28%	33%	35%	+/-3%	+2%
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**	32%	29%	39%	28%	24%	+/-3%	-4%#
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**	34%	35%	26%	36%	41%	+/-3%	+5%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 55%. The government's performance in protecting human rights followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 45%. Finally, a respective of 32%, 30% and 24% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on March 19, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from 17-19/9/08. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

18/9/08	Central banks join forces to rescue markets.
15/9/08	Lehman bankruptcy triggers U.S. financial turmoil.
13/9/08	Sanlu Group tainted-milk producer told to halt production.
7/9/08	2008 Legislative Council election ends with a turnout of only 45%.
6/9/08	Newspapers report and discuss LegCo election.
5/9/08	Hang Seng Index slippes below 20,000 points.
30/8/08	China's Olympic gold medalists performed at Hong Kong Stadium.
28/8/08	Hong Kong and the mainland signed a new energy deal.
27/8/08	A 100-year-old tree collapsed on a young woman and crushed her to death at Stanley Market.
16/8/08	Donald Tsang says Secretary for Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee do not need to step down.
15/8/08	Leung Chin-man quit his job with New World China Land.
11/8/08	Newspapers follow and discuss the Mongkok blaze.
10/8/08	Mongkok blaze kills 4 people, injures 55.
8/8/08	The Beijing Olympic Games starts.
5/8/08	Construction of the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge will be able to begin by 2010 after the central government agreed to inject funds.
31/7/08	Hong Kong's Exchange Fund suffered a record investment loss of HK$35 billion in the first half year for the first time in its history.
30/7/08	The government will waive the HK$400-a-month foreign domestic helper levy for two years.
29/7/08	The SAR government and Ministry of Commerce signed Supplement V to the Hong Kong-Mainland Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA5) to allow Hong Kong enterprises greater and easier access to the mainland market.
25/7/08	Conflicts broke out between Hong Kong journalists and police in Beijing during reporting the last batch of Olympics tickets on sale.
22/7/08	Provincial Communist Party secretary Wang Yang reveals new measures worth 40b yuan from Guangdong to assist HK SMEs.
21/7/08	Hong Kong's consumer prices rose 6.1 percent in June over a year earlier, the most in almost 11 years.
20/7/08	The waiving of the domestic helper levy is likely to start a month early on August 1.
19/7/08	38 nominations receveid for Legislative Council election on the first day of nomination period.
16/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam- kuen has unveiled an HK$11 billion inflation relief package.
12/7/08	Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan succeeds Frederick Ma Si-hang as the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development.
11/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen promises to formulate policies to ease the burdens created by inflation.
10/7/08	Hong Kong passed its first anti-racism law.
9/7/08	HK Government will invite new tenders for the development of Kai Tak cruise terminal.
5/7/08	Vice President Xi Jinping will arrive in Hong Kong tomorrow.
1/7/08	Protesters of the annual July 1 march urging the Government's response to demands.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
25/6/08	Resignation of Frederick Ma Si-hang for Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development brings rumors.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang have slightly increased over the last two weeks, but within sampling errors. However, his disapproval rate has dropped significantly, back to its early August level. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, it has now turned negative. This is the first time since February 2005 that people's dissatisfaction rate gets higher than the satisfaction rate. Of the five specific policy areas, compared to 3 months ago, although the opinion structure has basically remained unchanged, meaning that the ranked order of satisfaction remains to be government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, protection of human rights, maintenance of economic prosperity, developing democracy, and then improving people's livelihood, people's satisfaction of the government's relationship with the Central Government and its maintenance of economic prosperity have both plunged 10 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 30, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006, April 3, July 3, September 25, December 28, 2007 as well as March 25, 2008. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"

Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.