HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on September 9, 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special Announcement Sponsored by a number of organizations, the 2008 Legislative Council election rolling poll designed and conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is now complete. Its major findings and charts have been uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract POP interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong people between 1 and 5 September by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that CE Donald Tsang's support rating continues to drop, although his approval rate rebounds a bit. Tsang's support rating is now at record low since he became CE in 2005. Also in terms of support ratings, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all dropped significantly, to record lows since they took up their current posts. In terms of approval rates, all three are still enjoying positive appraisal. As for the Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system, compared to early August, changes in approval rates of the following officials are significant beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah's approval rate plunged by 11 percentage points, while that of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan dropped by 6 percentage points. Those of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan decreased by 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, the performance of Ambrose Lee can continue to be labeled as 'ideal', that of Wong Yan-lung can be labeled as 'successful', that of Henry Tang, Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, York Chow, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as 'mediocre', and that of Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. Robert Chung, Director of POP, observed, all in all, the popularity figures of the CE and the principal officials are falling. Now that the Legislative Council elections are over, if the government cannot make use of this opportunity to regain its popularity through the delivery of the CE's policy address, re-shuffling of the Executive Council, and reviewing the accountability system of principal officials, it will have a very hard time. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 69%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,010 successful interviews, not 1,010 x 68.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. # Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 51.8 marks, and 41% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 55.1, 53.5 and 59.1 marks, and 49%, 43% and 56% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 72%. The 2nd to 5th ranks went to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung with respective support rates of 46%, 45%, 42% and 36%. Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee shared the 6th rank as both of them gained 29% vote of confidence from the public. Meanwhile, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah, Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah, Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung occupied the 8th to 11th ranks with respective support rates of 28%, 27%, 26% and 24%. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan occupied the 12th rank, achieving 16%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information. In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on August 5, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from August 1 to 4, 2008 while this survey was conducted from September 1 to 5, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung. Our latest survey shows that CE Donald Tsang's support rating continues to drop, although his approval rate rebounds a bit. Tsang's support rating is now at record low since he became CE in 2005. Also in terms of support ratings, the popularity figures of CS Henry Tang, FS John Tsang and SJ Wong Yan-lung have all dropped significantly, to record lows since they took up their current posts. In terms of approval rates, all three are still enjoying positive appraisal. As for the Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system, compared to early August, changes in approval rates of the following officials are significant beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah's approval rate plunged by 11 percentage points, while that of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan dropped by 6 percentage points. Those of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan decreased by 5 percentage points. All in all, the popularity figures of the CE and the principal officials are falling. Now that the Legislative Council elections are over, if the government cannot make use of this opportunity to regain its popularity through the delivery of the CE's policy address, re-shuffling of the Executive Council, and reviewing the accountability system of principal officials, it will have a very hard time. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, the performance of Ambrose Lee can continue to be labeled as 'ideal', that of Wong Yan-lung can be labeled as 'successful', that of Henry Tang Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, John Tsang, York Chow, Donald Tsang, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as 'mediocre', and that of Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau, Ceajer Chan and Rita Lau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page. The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
Starting last year, a new grading system was adopted for the HKCEE Chinese Language and English Language, whereby the old 'pulling curve' system using a six-grade norm reference approach was replaced by a standard-referenced approach with six grades from Level '1' to '5*'. This should have deepened people's understanding of the standard-referenced approach, which is fairly similar to POP's grading system of principal officials. We therefore would not object to community members using Level '1' to '5*' to describe the popularity of principle officials. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 16, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues, Tibet issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders will be released. POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31, 2006, January 16 and 31, February 8, March 13, June 12, August 14, September 11, October 16, November 13, December 11, 2007, February 12, March 11, April 8, May 13, June 10, July 8 as well as August 12, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can review such development. (1) Development of CE's popularity survey
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| | Special Announcement | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
