HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of SAR,Back

Press Release on September 2, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,065 Hong Kong people between 25 and 26 August by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that compared to two months ago, people's trust in the SAR government, Beijing Central government and Taiwan government has all dropped significantly. Their trust in the local government plunged 17 percentage points, down to the level registered at the end of 2006. This is also the first time since February 2005 that people's trust in the Central government overtakes that of the local government. On the other hand, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and 'one country, two systems' has remained not just high, but has even gone up a bit. According to Robert Chung, Director of POP, over the past two months, the success of the Beijing Olympics should have pushed up people's trust in the Central government. That it dropped was probably dragged down by the plunging popularity of the local government. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,065 successful interviews, not 1,065 x 70.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background

Since December 1992 and continuously for 15 years, POP has been regularly surveying Hong Kong people's opinion on the trust in cross-strait governments, as part of our survey series on national issues. All surveys on people's trust in Taiwan government conducted in or before June 1999 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our POP Site was established in June 2000, we gradually move our survey items on-line one by one. Because the issue of Taiwan has become a focus of public attention recently, and cross-strait relations is entering a new stage after the Taiwan presidential election, POP has decided to collate all previous findings on people's trust in Taiwan government together, and present them along with those of HKSAR and Central governments for public reference. As for previous findings already published in our POP Express, they are available in the "Archive" section of our POP Site.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
25-26/8/2008	1,065	70.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	11-14/12/07	28-29/2/08	23-25/4/08	18-20/6/08	25-26/8/08		Latest Change
Sample base	1,011	1,007	1,029	1,003	1,065		--
Overall response rate	65.1%	69.2%	68.1%	70.3%	70.3%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	51%	66%	60%	62%	45%	+/-3%	-17%#
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	15%	5%	7%	12%	16%	+/-2%	+4%#
Trust in Beijing Government**	49%	52%	55%	58%	49%	+/-3%	-9%#
Distrust in Beijing Government**	19%	15%	13%	12%	14%	+/-2%	+2%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	5%	7%	19%	23%	12%	+/-2%	-11%#
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	70%	53%	29%	20%	40%	+/-3%	+20%#
Confidence in HK's future	79%	83%	80%	73%	74%	+/-3%	+1%
No-confidence in HK's future	16%	12%	15%	19%	20%	+/-2%	+1%
Confidence in China's future	88%	88%	88%	88%	89%	+/-2%	+1%
No-confidence in China's future	9%	8%	8%	8%	7%	+/-2%	-1%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	73%	75%	77%	71%	74%	+/-3%	+3%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	22%	18%	17%	21%	20%	+/-2%	-1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Survey conducted in late-August revealed that 45% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 49% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 12% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 74% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 89% had confidence in China's future, while 74% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from August 25 to 26, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/8/08	Beijing waved goodbye to the 2008 Olympic Games.
23/8/08	China will bring up the magical 50th gold.
17/8/08	China breaks the Olympic record.
16/8/08	Donald Tsang says Secretary for Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee do not need to step down.
15/8/08	Leung Chin-man quit his job with New World China Land.
9/8/08	China wins 2 golds on the first day of the Games competition.
8/8/08	The Beijing Olympic Games starts.
7/8/08	Beijing Olympics will open at 8 pm tomorrow.
6/8/08	The opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic is ready.
5/8/08	Construction of the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge will be able to begin by 2010 after the central government agreed to inject funds.
4/8/08	A suspected terrorist attack in the western region of Xinjiang killed 16 police officers.
1/8/08	President Hu Jintao has pledged to pursue comprehensive economic and political reforms following the Beijing Olympics.
30/7/08	The government will waive the HK$400-a-month foreign domestic helper levy for two years.
29/7/08	The SAR government and Ministry of Commerce signed Supplement V to the Hong Kong-Mainland Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA5) to allow Hong Kong enterprises greater and easier access to the mainland market.
28/7/08	Hong Kong is hit by an exceptionally hot weather since summer and the worst-ever air pollution.
26/7/08	A previously unknown Xinjiang separatist group, calling itself the Turkestan Islamic Party, has claimed responsibility for deadly bus explosions in two mainland cities, and threatened more attacks on Olympic host cities.
25/7/08	Conflicts broke out between Hong Kong journalists and police in Beijing during reporting the last batch of Olympics tickets on sale.
22/7/08	Provincial Communist Party secretary Wang Yang reveals new measures worth 40b yuan from Guangdong to assist HK SMEs.
20/7/08	The waiving of the domestic helper levy is likely to start a month early on August 1.
19/7/08	38 nominations receveid for Legislative Council election on the first day of nomination period.
17/7/08	Chinese Government may continue tightening policy to counter inflation threat.
16/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam- kuen has unveiled an HK$11 billion inflation relief package.
12/7/08	Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan succeeds Frederick Ma Si-hang as the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development.
11/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen promises to formulate policies to ease the burdens created by inflation.
10/7/08	Hong Kong passed its first anti-racism law.
9/7/08	HK Government will invite new tenders for the development of Kai Tak cruise terminal.
8/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping wound up his three-day visit in Hong Kong.
7/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping continues visit in Hong Kong.
6/7/08	Vice-president Xi Jinping pledges Beijing support for city.
5/7/08	Vice President Xi Jinping will arrive in Hong Kong tomorrow.
4/7/08	Regular direct cross-strait flights start in between Taiwan and the Mainland.
1/7/08	Protesters of the annual July 1 march urging the Government's response to demands.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
25/6/08	Resignation of Frederick Ma Si-hang for Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development brings rumors.
24/6/08	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang has resigned after being diagnosed with brain lesions.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, people's trust in the SAR government, Beijing Central government and Taiwan government has all dropped significantly. Their trust in the local government plunged 17 percentage points, down to the level registered at the end of 2006. This is also the first time since February 2005 that people's trust in the Central government overtakes that of the local government. According to the record of events displayed in our 'Opinion Daily', over the past two months, the success of the Beijing Olympics should have pushed up people's trust in the Central government. Instead, it dropped, probably dragged down by the plunging popularity of the local government. Readers are welcome to make their own judgment after reading our 'Opinion Daily'. Fortunately, people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and 'one country, two systems' has remained not just high, but has even gone up a bit."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be 9 September, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments as well as their confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of the surveys, we have explained it in our press release of August 22, November 7 and 28, December 14, 2006, February 21, April 26, June 14, August 21, November 6, December 18, 2007, March 4, April 29 as well as June 26, 2008. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by the HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(3) Mapping people's confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

In December 1992, our survey series on people's confidence started. With respect to people's confidence in Hong Kong, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in HK's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until April 1998 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

As for people's confidence in China's future, the frequency was not quite stable at the beginning. Beginning in July 1997, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in China's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month at the beginning, but between January 1998 and July 2001, only 5 surveys were conducted on an irregular basis. Then, in August 2001, the survey began its regular course of development, and has been conducted once every two months since then.

As for people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the survey started in June 1993. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you have confidence in 'one country, two systems?". Surveys were conducted once every two months, until May 1995 when it was changed to once every month, but were later on changed to once every two months since February 1998. It has remained unchanged since then.

Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to June 2000, the sample size of "people's confidence in HK's future" / "one country, two systems" survey was set at slightly over 500, while starting from May 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's confidence in China's future", since July 2001, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.

The above findings have all been published regularly on-line via our HKU POP Site, while all the previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded in various formats.