HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsangand the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on August 26, 2008

Special Announcement

Sponsored by a number of organizations, the rolling poll on the 2008 Legislative Council election conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already reached its fourth phase. The poll is conducted every day, its findings will be released to sponsors for exclusive use on the same day, and then uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption after the election. Organizations wishing to sponsor this rolling poll please contact Miss Chau or Miss Pang at 3921-2700.

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong people between 18-20 August by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to early August, the approval rate of CE Donald Tsang has significantly dropped by 4 percentage points. It is now at record low since he became CE in 2005. His disapproval rate has increased by 5 percentage points, and this is the first time for the disapproval rate to surpass the approval rate since he became CE in 2005. Moreover, if we look at the result of our biannual survey on Tsang's policy direction, compared to the same survey in February 2008, the satisfaction rate has decreased remarkably from 47% to the latest 29%. On the other hand, the dissatisfaction rate has surged from 13% to the latest 34%. Not only reaching its respective all time record high and low since the survey began in 2005, this is also the first time that the dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction went higher than the satisfaction rate. As for the performance of SARG, the satisfaction rate stayed at 30% while the dissatisfaction rate increased 5 percentage points compared to mid July, both now stand at 30%. The survey shows that people's satisfaction rate of SARG is at the trough since February 2005, and it is believed to be related to some recent incidents, including the Under Secretaries and Political Assistants issue, Domestic helper levy issue and Leung Chin-man incident. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures is +/-1.3 marks. The response rate of the survey is 70%.Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 69.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/- 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
18-20/8/2008	1,000	69.6%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-20/6/08	2-3/7/08	14-16/7/08	1-4/8/08	18-20/8/08		Latest change^
Sample base	1,003	1,019	1,181	1,009	1,000		--
Overall response rate	70.3%	70.8%	64.4%	69.0%	69.6%		--
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-1.3	+/-1.3	+/-1.2	+/-1.3	+/-1.3		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	57.9	55.9	54.5	54.8	54.1	+/-1.3	-0.7
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	51%	46%	45%	43%	39%	+/-3%	-4%#
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	30%	37%	33%	36%	41%	+/-3%	+5%#
Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	29%	+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction**	--	--	--	--	34%	+/-3%	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	36%	--	30%	--	30%	+/-3%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	22%	--	25%	--	30%	+/-3%	+5%#

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating +/-1.3, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized. For people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, the last survey was conducted in February, 2008 and the positive and negative figures were 47% and 13% back then.
# Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 54.1 marks, and 39% supported him as the Chief Executive while 41% held an opposite view. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 29% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 34% were not satisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 30% were satisfied, whereas another 30% were dissatisfied.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on February 22, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from February 18 to 20, 2008 while this survey was conducted from August 18 to 20, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/8/08	Donald Tsang says Secretary for Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee do not need to step down.
15/8/08	Leung Chin-man quit his job with New World China Land.
5/8/08	Construction of the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge will be able to begin by 2010 after the central government agreed to inject funds.
31/7/08	Hong Kong's Exchange Fund suffered a record investment loss of HK$35 billion in the first half year for the first time in its history.
30/7/08	The government will waive the HK$400-a-month foreign domestic helper levy for two years.
29/7/08	The SAR government and Ministry of Commerce signed Supplement V to the Hong Kong-Mainland Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA5) to allow Hong Kong enterprises greater and easier access to the mainland market.
20/7/08	The waiving of the domestic helper levy is likely to start a month early on August 1.
16/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam- kuen has unveiled an HK$11 billion inflation relief package.
12/7/08	Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan succeeds Frederick Ma Si-hang as the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development.
11/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen promises to formulate policies to ease the burdens created by inflation.
10/7/08	Hong Kong passed its first anti-racism law.
9/7/08	HK Government will invite new tenders for the development of Kai Tak cruise terminal.
1/7/08	Protesters of the annual July 1 march urging the Government's response to demands.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
25/6/08	Resignation of Frederick Ma Si-hang for Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development brings rumors.
24/6/08	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang has resigned after being diagnosed with brain lesions.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.
11/6/08	Bird flu virus is found in three more wet markets in Hong Kong.
10/6/08	1) Chief Executive Donald Tsang apologizes for the arrangement of political appointments. 2) Over 500 drivers go on strike for tax cut on diesel.
9/6/08	Government is uncertain of the source of bird flu virus.
7/6/08	The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in chickens at HK market.
6/6/08	Education Bureau announces that new arrangements will start in 2009-10 school year the earliest.
5/6/08	The Chief Executive's Office Chan Tak-lam says Government could have handled the deputy minister issue better.
31/5/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen talks about Deputy Director of Bureau and Political Assistant in Shanghai.
7/5/08	Leakage of private data from HSBC and Immigration Department.
22/4/08	Hong Kong will build a rail link connecting the city to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
13/3/08	Proposal of reforming public health system is officially released.
12/3/08	York Chow announces all primary schools, special schools, nurseries and kindergartens will be closed for two weeks.
28/2/08	The governments of HK, Guangdong, and Macau endorse the financing scheme for bridges linking the three places and the project will soon proceed to public tenders.
27/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers his first finanical budget, returning up to $100b to the people.
24/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will announce his first financial budget for the upcoming year on Wednesday.
22/2/08	Education Bureau proposes secondary schools to be given freedom of choosing which language to use for teaching.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Latest survey shows that, compared to early August, the approval rate of CE Donald Tsang has significantly dropped by 4 percentage points. It is now at record low since he became CE in 2005. His disapproval rate has increased by 5 percentage points, and this is the first time for the disapproval rate to surpass the approval rate since he became CE in 2005. Moreover, if we look at the result of our biannual survey on Tsang's policy direction, compared to the same survey in February 2008, the satisfaction rate has decreased remarkably from 47% to the latest 29%. On the other hand, the dissatisfaction rate has surged from 13% to the latest 34%. Not only reaching its respective all time record high and low since the survey began in 2005, this is also the first time that the dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction went higher than the satisfaction rate. As for the performance of SARG, the satisfaction rate stayed at 30% while the dissatisfaction rate increased 5 percentage points compared to mid July, both now stand at 30%. The survey shows that people's satisfaction rate of SARG is at the trough since February 2005, and it is believed to be related to some recent incidents, including the Under Secretaries and Political Assistants issue, Domestic helper levy issue and Leung Chin-man incident. As for the events affecting public opinion, readers can make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 28, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the results of second survey of Legislative Council election will be released. Then on August 29, 2008, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups. Then on September 2, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of CE and the HKSAR Government

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's appraisal of the top leader and overall satisfaction with the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31 and November 28, 2006, January 30, March 6, August 28, 2007 as well as February 26, 2008. Today, we post it, so that readers can refresh such development.

(1) Development of CE's popularity survey

From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, POP has continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity rating of Governor Chris Patten. After the handover when Tung Chee-hwa became the first Chief Executive in 1997, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang succeeded, POP has begun to measure Tsang's popularity. The frequency of our surveys was at least once every month during the Patten era. It was then increased to three times per month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards, it was reduced to twice every month.

The question wordings used in "popularity of Governor or CE" survey are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Governor/ the Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive XXX?" and "If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for XXX?".

(2) Development of people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction

HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began to record people's satisfaction of Governor Chris Patten's policy address ever since he gave his first one in October 1992. The question used then was: "On the whole, how satisfied are you with XXX's policy address?" We used this question up to September 2002, shortly before Tung Chee-hwa delivered his first policy address of his second session. Meanwhile, POP continued to develop other indicators of policy satisfaction, including "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" since July 1997, "hypothetical voting on XXX as the CE" and "people's appraisal of CE's job performance", both since February 2002. Our frequent CE rating exercise continues, and Donald Tsang's becoming the CE did not change our operation. Our effort to search and test for the best method to study people's satisfaction of public policies continues up to this date. The frequency of our "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" survey was at least once every two months during the Tung Chee-hwa era. It was then changed to at least once every six months since Donald Tsang became CE.

The question wordings used in "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" survey are: "Are you satisfied with XXX's policy direction?".

(3) Development of people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government survey

The survey on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government was started in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month.

The question wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

Before April 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was increased to at least 1,000. The above surveys are of no exception. All the above findings are now released on POP Site on a regular basis. Previous findings published in our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded online in various formats.