HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on subjective social and rule of law indicatorsBack

Press Release on August 19, 2008

Special Announcement

Sponsored by a number of organizations, the rolling poll on the 2008 Legislative Council election conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already reached its third phase. The poll is conducted every day, its findings will be released to sponsors for exclusive use on the same day, and then uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption after the election. Organizations wishing to sponsor this rolling poll please contact Miss Chau or Miss Pang at 3921-2700.

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,016 Hong Kong people between 11 and 14 August, 2008 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that most of our 12 subjective social indicators have gone down over the past 6 months. Brushing aside the 6 indicators with changes within sampling errors, 'prosperity' registered the biggest drop and reverted to the level registered in February 2007, probably due to the onset of inflation problems. 'Efficiency', 'democracy' and 'stability' followed in the drop order, while 'social welfare' and 'compliance with the rule of law' were on the rise. It should be noted that although the latest change in the 'public order' indicator is not particularly significant, the indicator has nonetheless reached its record high since this survey started right after the handover. The sampling error of rating figures is below +/-1.5 marks and the response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,016 successful interviews, not 1,016 x 69.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of rating figures is below +/-1.5 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "each sampling error is not more than +/-1.5 at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting the rating figures of this survey, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures on subjective social and rule of law indicators. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of ratings *
11-14/8/2008	1,016	69.8%	+/-1.5

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The survey findings are shown as follows:

Date of survey	21-23/8/06	22-26/2/07	20-24/8/07	12-14/2/08	11-14/8/08		Latest Change
Sample base	1,019	1,014	1,010	1,028	1,016		---
Overall response rate	57.7%	60.2%	65.2%	70.2%	69.8%		---
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 0.14	+/-0.12	+/-0.12	+/-0.12	+/-0.13		---
Sampling error of personal rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.2	+/-1.4	+/-1.2	+/-1.6	+/-1.5		---
Finding for each question/ Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	---
Degree of freedom	7.51	7.58	7.61	7.63	7.61	+/-0.11	-0.02
Degree of public order	6.89	7.26	7.37	7.44	7.50	+/-0.09	+0.06
Degree of civilization	7.19	7.26	7.39	7.42	7.40	+/-0.10	-0.02
Degree of stability	6.96	7.19	7.18	7.41	7.29	+/-0.11	-0.12**
Degree of corruption-free practices	6.94	7.25	7.29	7.30	7.20	+/-0.11	-0.10
Degree of prosperity	6.80	7.02	7.06	7.28	7.02	+/-0.11	-0.26**
Compliance with the rule of law	6.74	7.00	7.07	6.69	6.87	+/-0.12	+0.18**
Degree of efficiency	6.79	6.89	7.08	7.08	6.86	+/-0.12	-0.22**
Degree of social welfare sufficiency	6.28	6.40	6.42	6.12	6.32	+/-0.13	+0.20**
Degree of equality	6.19	6.32	6.30	6.34	6.29	+/-0.12	-0.05
Degree of democracy	6.20	6.08	6.25	6.25	6.10	+/-0.13	-0.15**
Degree of fairness	5.93	5.95	6.01	5.71	5.76	+/-0.13	+0.05
Impartiality of the courts	7.01	7.07	7.03	6.82	7.01	+/-0.12	+0.19**
Compliance with the rule of law (repeated listing)	6.74	7.00	7.07	6.69	6.87	+/-0.12	+0.18**
Fairness of the judicial system	6.72	6.85	6.90	6.64	6.78	+/-0.12	+0.14**
Support rating of Andrew Li	60.9	60.5	63.8	61.1	60.2	+/-1.5	-0.9

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state that "sampling errors are not more than +/-0.13 at 95% confidence level" when citing the indicators, and that "sampling error is not more than +/-1.5 at 95% confidence level" when citing Andrew Li's rating.
** Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Regarding the social indicators, results obtained in mid-August showed that, on a scale of 0-10, Hong Kong's degree of "freedom" scored the highest rating with 7.61 marks. "Public order" and "civilization" followed behind, with respective scores of 7.50 and 7.40 marks. "Stability", "corruption-free practices" and "prosperity" formed the next tier, scoring 7.29, 7.20 and 7.02 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings of, "compliance with the rule of law", "efficiency", "social welfare sufficiency", "equality" and "democracy" were 6.87, 6.86, 6.32, 6.29 and 6.10 marks correspondingly. Last of all, "fairness" scored 5.76 marks.

As for the 2 rule of law sub-indicators, the impartiality of the courts scored 7.01 marks, while the rating of the fairness of the judicial system was 6.78 marks. Meanwhile, the latest popularity rating of Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang, a representative figure of the judicial system, was 60.2 marks, on a scale of 0-100.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on February 15, 2008, because the previous survey was conducted from February 12 to 14, 2008 while this survey was conducted from August 11 to 14, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

5/8/08	Construction of the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai Bridge will be able to begin by 2010 after the central government agreed to inject funds.
31/7/08	Hong Kong's Exchange Fund suffered a record investment loss of HK$35 billion in the first half year for the first time in its history.
30/7/08	The government will waive the HK$400-a-month foreign domestic helper levy for two years.
29/7/08	The SAR government and Ministry of Commerce signed Supplement V to the Hong Kong-Mainland Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA5) to allow Hong Kong enterprises greater and easier access to the mainland market.
28/7/08	Hong Kong is hit by an exceptionally hot weather since summer and the worst-ever air pollution.
25/7/08	Conflicts broke out between Hong Kong journalists and police in Beijing during reporting the last batch of Olympics tickets on sale.
21/7/08	Hong Kong's consumer prices rose 6.1 percent in June over a year earlier, the most in almost 11 years.
20/7/08	The waiving of the domestic helper levy is likely to start a month early on August 1.
19/7/08	38 nominations receveid for Legislative Council election on the first day of nomination period.
16/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam- kuen has unveiled an HK$11 billion inflation relief package.
14/7/08	Hundreds of people queue up outside branches of Bank of China for commemorative banknotes bearing the Olympic logo.
12/7/08	Rita Lau Ng Wai-lan succeeds Frederick Ma Si-hang as the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development.
11/7/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen promises to formulate policies to ease the burdens created by inflation.
10/7/08	Hong Kong passed its first anti-racism law.
9/7/08	HK Government will invite new tenders for the development of Kai Tak cruise terminal.
8/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping wound up his three-day visit in Hong Kong.
7/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping continues visit in Hong Kong.
6/7/08	Vice-president Xi Jinping pledges Beijing support for city.
5/7/08	Vice President Xi Jinping will arrive in Hong Kong tomorrow.
1/7/08	Protesters of the annual July 1 march urging the Government's response to demands.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
25/6/08	Resignation of Frederick Ma Si-hang for Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development brings rumors.
24/6/08	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang has resigned after being diagnosed with brain lesions.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.
11/6/08	Bird flu virus is found in three more wet markets in Hong Kong.
10/6/08	1) Chief Executive Donald Tsang apologizes for the arrangement of political appointments. 2) Over 500 drivers go on strike for tax cut on diesel.
9/6/08	Government is uncertain of the source of bird flu virus.
8/6/08	Electric power and water support to Tai O is suspended due to the heavy rainstorm.
7/6/08	1) The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in chickens at HK market. 2) Black rainstorm warning is hoisted by Hong Kong Observatory.
6/6/08	Education Bureau announces that new arrangements will start in 2009-10 school year the earliest.
5/6/08	The Chief Executive's Office Chan Tak-lam says Government could have handled the deputy minister issue better.
2/6/08	The CEO of HKEC vows to review closing auction session system.
31/5/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen talks about Deputy Director of Bureau and Political Assistant in Shanghai.
29/5/08	ICAC arrest 29 people in warrants scam probe.
27/5/08	Walter Kwok replaced as Sun Hung Kai chairman by his mother.
7/5/08	Leakage of private data from HSBC and Immigration Department.
3/5/08	A man is arrested on suspicion of murder of his wife.
2/5/08	The Olympic torch relay at Hong Kong completes.
30/4/08	The Beijing Olympic flame arrives in Hong Kong.
25/4/08	The Department of Health loses 691 records of patients.
24/4/08	Mainland Index shoot up around 9 per cent.
23/4/08	Mainland slashes stampduty on stocks.
22/4/08	Hong Kong will build a rail link connecting the city to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
19/4/08	The typhoon 'Neoguri' moves closer to Hong Kong.
16/4/08	Inflation is turning up around the globe.
10/4/08	Yuan breaks 7 against US dollars.
9/4/08	Budget airline Oasis Hong Kong collapses.
31/3/08	Shoppers stocks up for fear of price rise while Beijing ensures adequate supplies of rice to HK and Macau.
28/3/08	Many newspapers comment on Martin Lee's decision of stepping down from the Legislative Council.
27/3/08	Li Ka-shing says the sub-prime problem in US will affect HK's economy.
26/3/08	Classes set to resume on next Monday as flu risk receding.
25/3/08	Hang Seng Index rises 1,356 points.
19/3/08	HK banks cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points.
17/3/08	A Pakistan man is arrested on suspicion of murder of four Hong Kong sex worker.
14/3/08	Secretary for Food and Health York Chow anticipates that the flu could continue until April or afterward.
13/3/08	Proposal of reforming public health system is officially released.
12/3/08	York Chow announces all primary schools, special schools, nurseries and kindergartens will be closed for two weeks.
6/3/08	The flu season occurs in HK.
4/3/08	A three-year-old girl who died in Tuen Mun Hospital tests positive for the H3 strain of influenza.
3/3/08	HSBC Holdings report 2007 net profit jumps to US$19.1 billion.
29/2/08	Government announces 2008-09 new land Application List.
28/2/08	The governments of HK, Guangdong, and Macau endorse the financing scheme for bridges linking the three places and the project will soon proceed to public tenders.
27/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers his first finanical budget, returning up to $100b to the people.
25/2/08	Robert Chow Yung holds a press conference to publicly declare that he has applied for director of broadcasting.
24/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will announce his first financial budget for the upcoming year on Wednesday.
22/2/08	Education Bureau proposes secondary schools to be given freedom of choosing which language to use for teaching.
21/2/08	Edison Chen holds a press conference to clarify the case of nude photos and expresses his apology.
16/2/08	More progress is made on cross-Pearl River Delta bridge development with settlement of financing proposal.
15/2/08	Chung Yik-tin, arrested over the celebrity sex-photos scandal, is freed when the charge against him is withdrawn after 16 days behind bars.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest finding shows that most of our 12 subjective social indicators have gone down over the past 6 months. Brushing aside the 6 indicators with changes within sampling errors, 'prosperity' registered the biggest drop and reverted to the level registered in February 2007, probably due to the onset of inflation problems. 'Efficiency', 'democracy' and 'stability' followed in the drop order, while 'social welfare' and 'compliance with the rule of law' were on the rise. It should be noted that although the latest change in the 'public order' indicator is not particularly significant, the indicator has nonetheless reached its record high since this survey started right after the handover. Because numerous events have happened in the past 6 months, and because of the wide scope of social indicators, readers can make use of our detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily' to decide what factors are affecting the ups and downs of these indicators."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 26, 2008, Tuesday, between 1 pm and 2 pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Subjective social and rule of law indicators

Social indicator survey is a common way to monitor and measure a society's development. HKUPOP first conducted such surveys around the handover of Hong Kong in 1997, in order to monitor the new development of Hong Kong society. We explained the development of such surveys in our press release dated on September 5, 2006, March 8, September 4, 2007 and February 19, 2008. Today, we release it again, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development. In our research domain, "social indicators" comprises 12 main indicators, namely, "democracy", "freedom, "prosperity", "stability", "fairness", "civilization", "corruption-free", "equality", "efficiency", "social welfare", "public order" and "rule of law", and 2 sets of "freedom sub-indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators". The first set comprises "freedom of speech", "freedom of press", "freedom of publication", "freedom of procession and demonstration", "freedom of association", "freedom to strike", "freedom to enter or leave Hong Kong", "freedom to engage in academic research", "freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation" and "freedom of religious belief", while the latter set comprises "fairness of the judicial system" and "impartiality of the courts". Herewith the details of our "social indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys:

Between June and November 1997, our surveys of social and rule of law indicators were conducted once every month. It was then changed to once every two months, until it was changed again to once every three months beginning from July 2000. Starting from October 2005, its frequency was gradually changed to once every six months, in order to match society's development.

For the "social indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "If you were to use 0-10 to evaluate whether Hong Kong is a such and such society, with 10 indicating absolutely such and such, 0 indicating absolutely not such and such, 5 indicating half-half, how would you rate Hong Kong?" During our "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys, we also include one additional question on the rating of the Chief Justice, wordings being "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang?"

Regarding sample size, between July 1997 and March 2000, the sample size of all surveys was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

The findings of our early social and rule of law indicators conducted between June 1997 and June 1998 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, such findings were released on-line starting from January and July 2002 respectively, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.