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Press Release on July 15, 2008

Special Announcement

Starting today, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will be responsible for designing and maintaining the Chinese homepage of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO). WPO was initiated by and is managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. At present WPO consists of research centers in 22 countries or regions. The English website of the WPO is located at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org, while its Chinese website is located at http://wpo.hkpop.hk which can be accessed via the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk or Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform at http://www.hkpop.hk. From now on, POP will be responsible for translating WPO's research reports and press releases into Chinese, for global release. Robert Chung, Director of POP, today wrote a short piece entitled "Sevens and Eights" under "Editor's Remarks" in the POP Site to mark the event.

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors this month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of all Legco members on the list have increased, except Selina Chow. Among them, Lee Cheuk-yan, Martin Lee and Emily Lau register the biggest increase. In terms of ranking, Rita Fan continues to top the list, while Audrey Eu and Anson Chan remain at the second and third places. Selina Chow who ranked fourth last time now drops to the seventh place. For the other Legco members on the list, their relative positions have changed within two positions. In other words, their relative positions have in general remained quite stable. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 1.8 while the response rate of the rating survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 70.8% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,008 successful interviews, not 1,008 x 69.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
2-3/7/08 (First stage naming survey)	1,019	70.8%	+/-3%
9-10/7/08 (Second stage rating survey)	1,008	69.5%	+/-1.8

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Anson Chan, Leung Kwok-hung, Martin Lee, Rita Fan and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-July, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	23-26/7/07	22-25/10/07	16-18/1/08	16-18/4/08	9-10/7/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,016	1,022	1,009	1,008		--
Overall response rate	64.9%	67.4%	66.7%	69.6%	69.5%		--
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.8	+/-1.8	+/-1.8		--
Finding for each question/Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Rita Fan	68.2 [1]	67.9 [1]	65.5 [1]	68.7[1]	70.5[1]	+/-1.2	+1.8
Audrey Eu	59.7 [**]	59.7 [3]	58.9 [**]	62.6[2]	65.3[2]	+/-1.2	+2.7
Anson Chan	--	--	55.1 [3]	58.5[3]	59.7[3]	+/-1.6	+1.2
Lee Cheuk-yan	56.1 [4]	55.1 [6]	52.4 [5]	53.3[6]	58.9[4]	+/-1.4	+5.6
James Tien	55.5 [5]	55.3 [5]	55.3 [2]	57.3[5]	58.4[5]	+/-1.2	+1.1
Emily Lau	49.6 [8]	50.3 [8]	45.5 [9]	52.2[7]	56.4[6]	+/-1.4	+4.2
Selina Chow	59.3 [3]	58.7 [4]	52.6 [4]	57.7[4]	55.8[7]	+/-1.2	-1.9
Martin Lee	49.1 [9]	49.7 [9]	45.8 [8]	50.9[9]	55.2[8]	+/-1.6	+4.3
Jasper Tsang	50.5 [7]	52.9 [7]	49.7 [7]	52.2[7]	52.4[9]	+/-1.4	+0.2
Leung Kwok-hung	33.7 [10]	33.6 [10]	30.2 [10]	35.9[10]	36.6[10]	+/-1.8	+0.7
Lee Wing-tat	--	--	--	--	56.1[]**	+/-1.4	--
Tam Yiu-chung	--	55.0 [**]	53.7 [**]	56.9[**]	55.0[]**	+/-1.4	-1.9
Chan Yuen-han	--	--	--	60.7[**]	--	--	--
James To	--	--	--	53.1[**]	--	--	--
Albert Ho	54.8 [6]	56.4 [**]	50.9 [6]	--	--	--	--
Alan Leong	60.2 [2]	60.2 [2]	--	--	--	--	--
Yeung Sum	54.3 [**]	--	--	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in mid-July showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 70.5 marks while Audrey Eu ranked the 2nd with 65.3 marks. Anson Chan, Lee Cheuk-yan and James Tien occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with respective scores of 59.7, 58.9 and 58.4 marks. The 6th to 9th ranks went to Emily Lau, Selina Chow, Martin Lee and Jasper Tsang with 56.4, 55.8, 55.2 and 52.4 marks correspondingly. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 36.6 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 62.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 56.9 marks. For this latest survey, Lee Wing-tat and Tam Yiu-chung obtained support ratings of 56.1 and 55.0 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/10/07	16-18/1/08	16-18/4/08	9-10/7/08	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Rita Fan	67.9	65.5	68.7	70.5	4	68.1	1
James Tien	55.3	55.3	57.3	58.4	4	56.6	2
Selina Chow	58.7	52.6	57.7	55.8	4	56.2	3
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.1	52.4	53.3	58.9	4	54.9	4
Jasper Tsang	52.9	49.7	52.2	52.4	4	51.8	5
Emily Lau	50.3	45.5	52.2	56.4	4	51.1	6
Martin Lee	49.7	45.8	50.9	55.2	4	50.4	7
Leung Kwok-hung	33.6	30.2	35.9	36.6	4	34.1	8
Audrey Eu	59.7	-	62.6	65.3	3	62.5	9
Anson Chan	-	55.1	58.5	59.7	3	57.8	10
Alan Leong	60.2	-	-	-	1	60.2	11
Albert Ho	-	50.9	-	-	1	50.9	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that eight Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 68.1 marks, James Tien, Selina Chow and Lee Cheuk-yan ranking the 2nd to 4th, attaining 56.6, 56.2 and 54.9 marks correspondingly, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Martin Lee who ranked 5th to 7th with respective scores of 51.8, 51.1 and 50.4 marks, and Leung Kwok-hung at the 8th rank with 34.1 marks. Audrey Eu and Anson Chan who have been on the list for three times ranked 9th and 10th with 62.5 and 57.8 marks. Alan Leong and Albert Ho who have been on the list once ranked 11th and 12th, with respective average ratings of 60.2 and 50.9 marks.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 16 to 18, 2008 while this survey was conducted from July 9 to 10, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/7/08	Hong Kong passed its first anti-racism law.
8/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping wound up his three-day visit in Hong Kong .
7/7/08	Vice-President Xi Jinping continues visit in Hong Kong.
6/7/08	Vice-president Xi Jinping pledges Beijing support for city.
5/7/08	Vice President Xi Jinping arrives in Hong Kong.
1/7/08	Protesters of the annual July 1 march urging the Government's response to demands.
26/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen makes unprecedented appearance in chamber to defend political appointees.
20/6/08	The government unveil a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.
10/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang apologizes for the arrangement of political appointments.
7/6/08	The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in chickens at HK market.
5/6/08	The Chief Executive's Office Chan Tak-lam says Government could have handled the deputy minister issue better.
31/5/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen talks about Deputy Director of Bureau and Political Assistant in Shanghai.
12/5/08	The strongest earthquake to hit China causes at least 8,749 peoples dead.
2/5/08	The Olympic torch relay at Hong Kong completes.
29/4/08	HK Sports Federation and Olympic Committee announces list of 120 bearers for Olympic torch relay.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, our last survey of 'Top 10 Legco Members' for this session shows that the popularity ratings of all Legco members on the list have increased, except Selina Chow. Among them, Lee Cheuk-yan, Martin Lee and Emily Lau register the biggest increase. In terms of ranking, Rita Fan continues to top the list, while Audrey Eu and Anson Chan remain at the second and third places. Selina Chow who ranked fourth last time now drops to the seventh place. For the other Legco members on the list, their relative positions have changed within two positions. In other words, their relative positions have in general remained quite stable. It should be noted, however, that our list of top 10 only includes Legislative Councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 22, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

POP will also follow the rhythm of the WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) to globally release the Chinese versions of WPO's press releases regularly, via our "World Public Opinion Platform" accessible through our POP Site and the "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform" at http://www.hkpop.hk.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <pop.network@hkupop.pori.hk>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors survey

The Legislative Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Legislative Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since 1992. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press release of November 2, 2006, February 6, May 2, August 7, November 1, 2007, January 24, and April 24, 2008. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development:

Starting from October 1992, the surveys are conducted once every three months, without any change.

Our research design comprises separate naming and rating surveys in two stages. In the naming stage, in between 1992 and 1993, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "Please name up to 5 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." From 1994 onwards, the wordings used in the questionnaire become "Please name up to 10 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." In the rating stage, since the beginning, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?"

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to March 2000, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.

Our first findings of our political group surveys were published in the East Week, which was a magazine on political and economic affairs then. We later published our findings by fax. Then in 1996, HKUPOP published our newsletter POP Express, which naturally carried our findings on this topic. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, we switched to an on-line mode of release since then, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.