HKU POP SITE releases popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability systemBack
| Press Release on July 08, 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abstract The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 2 and 3 July by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to slide. Compared to late May before the trend started, Tsang's rating has dropped 10.1 marks while his approval rate has dropped 17 percentage points. They are both at record low since he became CE in 2005. Record also shows that Tsang's rating now stands at the same level as that registered shortly after the first July 1 Rally in 2003. He was then the Chief Secretary for Administration. Looking only at changes in approval rates over the past month, CE's approval rate has dropped 11 percentage points. Among all Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system, the following changes are significant beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma's approval rate surged 19 percentage points, that of SJ Wong Yan-lung increased 6 percentage points, that of CS Henry Tang dropped 6 percentage points, and that of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam dropped 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee is now the only official with 'ideal' performance. Wong Yan-lung, Frederick Ma and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 'successful', Henry Tang, John Tsang, Donald Tsang, Carrie Lam, Michael Suen, York Chow, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. Other than CE's popularity, it should be noted that the approval rate of Henry Tang is now at record low since he became CS, that of York Chow is also at record low since he became a Director of Bureau, while that of Frederick Ma has jumped to record high since he became a Director of Bureau in 2002. Robert Chung, Director of POP, observed, the sudden surge in Ma's popularity against the odds is no doubt due to people's sympathy on his decision to resign due to sickness, while the continued drop of Donald Tsang's popularity shows that the rescue efforts he made in late June to early July have not been effective. As to the effects of Vice-President Xi Jinping's visit to Hong Kong, and Legco members' visit to Sichuan, we will have to wait and see. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is between +/-1 and 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 71%. Points to note: * The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there. * The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 70.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake. * The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.3 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level". * When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures. * The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Latest Figures POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table be briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
"Maximum sampling errors" occur when survey figures are close to 50%. If the figures are close to 0% or 100%, the sampling error will diminish accordingly. The sampling errors of ratings, however, will depend on the distribution of the raw figures. Since January 2007, POP lists out the sampling errors of all survey figures in detail and explain them in due course. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:
Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 55.9 marks, and 46% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 59.4, 58.2 and 62.9 marks, and 50%, 46% and 60% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 70%. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung occupied the 2nd and 3rd ranks with respective support rates of 55% and 51%. The 4th to 8th ranks went to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee and Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng Yu-wah as they gained 42%, 41%, 38%, 36% and 34% vote of confidence from the public respectively. Meanwhile, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing occupied the 9th to 10th ranks with respective support rates of 27% and 26%. Secretary for Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung shared the 11th rank, both achieving 24%. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, Frederick Ma Si-hang and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opinion Daily In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information. In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception. For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on June 6, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 4 to 6, 2008 while this survey was conducted from July 2 to 3, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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| Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE Donald Tsang continues to slide. Compared to late May before the trend started, Tsang's rating has dropped 10.1 marks while his approval rate has dropped 17 percentage points. They are both at record low since he became CE in 2005. Record also shows that Tsang's rating now stands at the same level as that registered shortly after the first July 1 Rally in 2003. He was then the Chief Secretary for Administration. Looking only at changes in approval rates over the past month, CE's approval rate has dropped 11 percentage points. Among all Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system, the following changes are significant beyond sampling errors: Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma's approval rate surged 19 percentage points, that of SJ Wong Yan-lung increased 6 percentage points, that of CS Henry Tang dropped 6 percentage points, and that of Secretary for Development Carrie Lam dropped 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee is now the only official with 'ideal' performance. Wong Yan-lung, Frederick Ma and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 'successful', Henry Tang, John Tsang, Donald Tsang, Carrie Lam, Michael Suen, York Chow, Stephen Lam and Tsang Tak-sing can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Denise Yue, Eva Cheng, Edward Yau and Ceajer Chan can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. Other than CE's popularity, it should be noted that the approval rate of Henry Tang is now at record low since he became CS, that of York Chow is also at record low since he became a Director of Bureau, while that of Frederick Ma has jumped to record high since he became a Director of Bureau in 2002. The sudden surge in Ma's popularity against the odds is no doubt due to people's sympathy on his decision to resign due to sickness, while the continued drop of Donald Tsang's popularity shows that the rescue efforts he made in late June to early July have not been effective. As to the effects of Vice-President Xi Jinping's visit to Hong Kong, and Legco members' visit to Sichuan, we will have to wait and see. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures across different surveys, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'." The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:
Regarding the grading system of these officials, Robert Chung further explained, "A new grading system was adopted last year for the HKCEE Chinese Language and English Language, whereby the old 'pulling curve' system using a six-grade norm reference approach was replaced by a standard-referenced approach with six grades from Level '1' to '5*'. This should have deepened people's understanding of the standard-referenced approach, which is fairly similar to POP's grading system of principal officials. We therefore would not object to community members using Level '1' to '5*' to describe the popularity of principle officials." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 15, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest ratings of Top 10 Legislative Councillors will be released. Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| About HKUPOP Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31, 2006, January 16 and 31, February 8, March 13, June 12, August 14, September 11, October 16, November 13, December 11, 2007, February 12, March 11, April 8, May 13 as well as June 10, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can review such development. (1) Development of CE's popularity survey
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