HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditionsBack

Press Release on July 02, 2008

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a headcount of July 1 Rally participants yesterday on the footbridge at the conjunction of Arsenal Street and Hennessey Road. Our preliminary estimate puts yesterday's rally participants at around 17,000 to 19,000, which was released for public consumption last night via our "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). To read the figures, one can go to the POP Site, click on the picture icon for "July 1 Rally Feature Page", and then choose "July 1 Rally Headcounting Project 2008". Alternatively, one can click on the left menu "Special Features", then "July 1 Rally Feature Page", and then make the choice.

Abstract

HKUPOP interviewed 1,031 Hong Kong people between 24-26 June, 2008 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people are obviously most concerned with economic problems, then social and political problems. In terms of absolute rating, people's concern for social and political problems has dropped over the past six months. In terms of satisfaction level, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions have all dropped significantly. Those satisfied with the economic condition has plunged by 24 percentage points. Other than for the social condition, people are more dissatisfied than satisfied with the current economic and political environment. Looking back, those who said we are worse than 3 years ago have surged across all three areas. Looking ahead, more people believe Hong Kong's economy will get worse in 3 years' time. An even number of people believe Hong Kong's social condition will get better or worse, while more people believe Hong Kong's political condition will get better. All in all, people's satisfaction and optimism in our society has come down significantly over the last 6 months. The sampling error of the survey is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 72%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 72.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum standard sampling error of this survey is +/-1.6 percentage points, meaning that at 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be +/-3.2 percentage points, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of ratings +/-0.13, sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactivevoice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
24-26/6/2008	1,031	72.1%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's current conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-21/6/06	18-20/12/06	15-21/6/07	19-24/12/07	24-26/6/2008		Latest change
Sample base	1,012	1,016	1,006	1,019	1,031		--
Overall response rate	58.2%	64.1%	65.2%	66.2%	72.1%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-0.14	+/-0.12	+/-0.12	+/-0.14	+/-0.13		--
Finding for each question/Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Most concerned with economic problems	42%	42%	32%	40%	56%	+/-3%	+16%
Most concerned with social problems	53%	51%	62%	53%	35%	+/-3%	-18%
Most concerned with political problems	4%	5%	4%	6%	4%	+/-1%	-2%
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.11	7.14	7.07	7.29	7.21	+/-0.12	-0.08
Rating on concern for social problems	7.24	7.21	7.35	7.34	6.99	+/-0.13	-0.35
Rating on concern for political problems	5.71	5.71	5.87	5.82	5.50	+/-0.13	-0.32
Current social condition: Satisfaction rate**	57%	43%	54%	53%	40%	+/-3%	-13%
Current social condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	15%	23%	18%	18%	27%	+/-3%	+9%
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate**	55%	46%	57%	55%	31%	+/-3%	-24%
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	19%	22%	17%	20%	34%	+/-3%	+14%
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate**	40%	29%	39%	37%	30%	+/-3%	-7%
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate**	25%	27%	24%	27%	33%	+/-3%	+6%
Regarded economic condition has become better in the last 3 years	78%	72%	81%	73%	48%	+/-3%	-25%
Regarded economic condition has become worse in the last 3 years	8%	9%	7%	11%	35%	+/-3%	+24%
Regarded social condition has become better in the last 3 years	62%	55%	60%	59%	41%	+/-3%	-18%
Regarded social condition has become worse in the last 3 years	14%	19%	16%	16%	31%	+/-3%	+15%
Regarded political condition has become better in the last 3 years	52%	43%	50%	49%	39%	+/-3%	-10%
Regarded political condition has become worse in the last 3 years	16%	19%	14%	16%	28%	+/-3%	+12%
Expected political condition to become better in 3 years' time	43%	32%	42%	37%	33%	+/-3%	-4%
Expected political condition to become worse in 3 years' time	14%	16%	14%	15%	24%	+/-3%	+9%
Expected social condition to become better in 3 years' time	46%	35%	44%	39%	31%	+/-3%	-8%
Expected social condition to become worse in 3 years' time	16%	23%	15%	18%	31%	+/-3%	+13%
Expected economic condition to become better in 3 years' time	52%	42%	50%	40%	31%	+/-3%	-9%
Expected economic condition to become worse in 3 years' time	11%	17%	12%	19%	36%	+/-3%	+17%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

The survey conducted in late-June, 2008 showed that 56% of the respondents were most concerned with economic problems, 35% with social problems, while 4% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over economic, social and political problems were 7.21, 6.99 and 5.50 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current social, economic and political conditions were 40%, 31% and 30% in respective order. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 48%, 41% and 39% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 33%, 31% and 31% respectively believed political, social and economic conditions would become better in 3 years' time.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP SITE", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 19 to 24, 2007 while this survey was conducted from June 24 to 26, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/6/08	Resignation of Frederick Ma Si-hang for Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development brings rumors.
24/6/08	Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang has resigned after being diagnosed with brain lesions.
21/6/08	Two children climbed down a drainpipe 34 storeys high.
20/6/08	The government unveils a HK$1 billion buyout plan to reform chicken trade.
19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.
11/6/08	Bird flu virus is found in three more wet markets in Hong Kong.
10/6/08	1) Chief Executive Donald Tsang apologizes for the arrangement of political appointments. 2) Over 500 drivers go on strike for tax cut on diesel.
9/6/08	Government is uncertain of the source of bird flu virus.
8/6/08	Electric power and water support to Tai O is suspended due to the heavy rainstorm.
7/6/08	1) The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in chickens at HK market. 2) Black rainstorm warning is hoisted by Hong Kong Observatory.
6/6/08	Education Bureau announces that new arrangements will start in 2009-10 school year the earliest.
5/6/08	The Chief Executive's Office Chan Tak-lam says Government could have handled the deputy minister issue better.
2/6/08	The CEO of HKEC vows to review closing auction session system.
31/5/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen talks about Deputy Director of Bureau and Political Assistant in Shanghai.
29/5/08	ICAC arrest 29 people in warrants scam probe.
7/5/08	Leakage of private data from HSBC and Immigration Department.
4/5/08	Chinese officials and representatives of the Dalai Lama have a meeting in Shenzhen.
3/5/08	A man is arrested on suspicion of murder of his wife.
2/5/08	The Olympic torch relay at Hong Kong completes.
1/5/08	A bus traffic accident causes 18 people dead and 44 injured at Sai Kung.
30/4/08	The Beijing Olympic flame arrives in Hong Kong.
29/4/08	HK Sports Federation and Olympic Committee announces list of 120 bearers for Olympic torch relay.
25/4/08	The Department of Health loses 691 records of patients.
24/4/08	Mainland Index shoot up around 9 per cent.
23/4/08	Mainland slashes stampduty on stocks.
22/4/08	Hong Kong will build a rail link connecting the city to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
19/4/08	The typhoon 'Neoguri' moves closer to Hong Kong.
10/4/08	Yuan breaks 7 against US dollars.
9/4/08	Budget airline Oasis Hong Kong collapses.
31/3/08	Shoppers stocks up for fear of price rise while Beijing ensures adequate supplies of rice to HK and Macau.
28/3/08	Many newspapers comment on Martin Lee's decision of stepping down from the Legislative Council.
27/3/08	Li Ka-shing says the sub-prime problem in US will affect HK's economy.
26/3/08	Classes set to resume on next Monday as flu risk receding.
25/3/08	Hang Seng Index rises 1,356 points.
19/3/08	HK banks cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points.
17/3/08	A Pakistan man is arrested on suspicion of murder of four Hong Kong sex workers.
14/3/08	Secretary for Food and Health York Chow anticipates that the flu could continue until April or afterward.
13/3/08	Proposal of reforming public health system is officially released.
12/3/08	York Chow announces all primary schools, special schools, nurseries and kindergartens will be closed for two weeks.
10/3/08	A 7-year-old boy is diagnosed as brain dead after contracting meningitis.
6/3/08	The flu season occurs in HK.
4/3/08	A three-year-old girl who died in Tuen Mun Hospital tests positive for the H3 strain of influenza.
3/3/08	HSBC Holdings report 2007 net profit jumps to US$19.1 billion.
29/2/08	Government announces 2008-09 new land Application List.
28/2/08	The governments of HK, Guangdong, and Macau endorse the financing scheme for bridges linking the three places and the project will soon proceed to public tenders.
27/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers his first finanical budget, returning up to $100b to the people.
25/2/08	Robert Chow Yung holds a press conference to publicly declare that he has applied for director of broadcasting.
24/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will announce his first financial budget for the upcoming year on Wednesday.
22/2/08	Education Bureau proposes secondary schools to be given freedom of choosing which language to use for teaching.
21/2/08	Edison Chen holds a press conference to clarify the case of nude photos and expresses his apology.
16/2/08	More progress is made on cross-Pearl River Delta bridge development with settlement of financing proposal.
11/2/08	Hang Seng Index falls 853 points in the first trading day of Chinese New Year.
9/2/08	New nude photoraphs, purportedly of local artists, are released on internet.
5/2/08	Ching Cheong is released on parole.
27/1/08	Food supply to HK is also affected as chaos caused by heavy snow continues in Mainland.
25/1/08	36 deputies are elected to represent HK in the National People's Congress.
23/1/08	Responding to Fed's rate-cut, local banks reduce interest-rate by 0.75%.
21/1/08	Global stock markets in crisis, Hang Seng Index falls 1,383 points, or 5.5%.
19/1/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will deliver his first finanical budget at the end of February.
16/1/08	HK stocks join a global market rout, Hang Seng Index plunged 1,386 points or 5.37%.
7/1/08	HK Gov't reaches agreement with CLP Power and HK Electric to reduce their permitted rate of return to 9.99%.
6/1/08	A 52-year-old man is in a critical condition after receiving contaminated blood at Tuen Mun Hospital.
4/1/08	The Western Harbour Tunnel announces the end of fare concessions, which will increase the tolls by about 15%.
30/12/07	The decision made by NPC regarding the introduction of universal suffrage for CE and Legco in HK becomes a controversial issue.
29/12/07	National People's Congress to rule out universal suffrage for the election of the chief executive and all legislators in 2012.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our survey conducted at the end of last month, people are obviously most concerned with economic problems, then social and political problems. In terms of absolute rating, people's concern for social and political problems has dropped over the past six months. In terms of satisfaction level, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions have all dropped significantly. Those satisfied with the economic condition has plunged by 24 percentage points. Other than for the social condition, people are more dissatisfied than satisfied with the current economic and political environment. Looking back, those who said we are worse than 3 years ago have surged across all three areas. Looking ahead, more people believe Hong Kong's economy will get worse in 3 years' time. An even number of people believe Hong Kong's social condition will get better or worse, while more people believe Hong Kong's political condition will get better. All in all, people's satisfaction and optimism in our society has come down significantly over the last 6 months. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such changes using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 8, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's appraisal of society's current conditions

People's appraisal of their society's current condition is always an important indicator of a society's development. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct regular surveys on people's appraisal of Hong Kong society's current conditions. The surveys not only investigate the problem people are most concerned with, but also include people's satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal, expectation and level of concern for the above three aspects. We have explained the survey development in our press release of January 9 and July 12, 2007 as well as January 10, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

Since December 1992, HKU POP began our regular surveys on "people's appraisal of society's current conditions". The questions in the initial surveys covered people's most concerned problem, their satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal and expectation. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Hong Kong is currently facing various problems. What kind of problems are you most concerned with?", "Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong?", "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong has become better or worse in the last three years?" and "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong will become better or worse in three years' time?"

In 2005, under people's most concerned problem, we added questions on people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please use a scale of 0-10 to rate your level of concern for the political/economic/social problems in Hong Kong, with 10 indicating extremely concerned, 5 being half-half and 0 indicating extremely not concerned."

Regarding the frequency, "people's most concerned problem" and "satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions" were first surveyed once every two months. Their frequencies were changed to once every three months since December 2000 and then to once every six months since June 2006. For the "appraisal and expectation on the political, economic and social conditions", the frequency of this sub-indicator survey was changed from once every two months at the beginning to once every three months since February 1997. From February 1998 onwards, it is reviewed once every half a year. When it comes to "people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems", it was first surveyed once every three months since March 2005. Starting from June 2006, it is examined once every six months to cope with the changing social conditions.

Regarding the sample size, on or before April 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since June 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000.

The findings from our "people's appraisal of society's current conditions" surveys conducted by 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.