HKU POP SITE releases the latest results of the Handover Anniversary survey and forecasts July 1 headcount arrangementsBack

Press Release on June 30, 2008

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong will conduct a headcount of July 1 Rally participants tomorrow, and releases its preliminary results via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) tomorrow evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rally. To read the figures, one can go to the POP Site, click on the picture icon for "July 1 Rally Feature Page", and then choose "July 1 Rally Headcounting Project 2008". Alternatively, one can click on the left menu "Special Features", then "July 1 Rally Feature Page", and then make the choice. Furthermore, POP will also gather opinions from invited rally participants via the online "Hong Kong People's Opinion Platform", results of which will be published in due course. The "July 1 Rally Feature Page" also contains survey and headcount results obtained in previous years for comparative studies.

Abstract of Anniversary Survey

HKUPOP interviewed 1,031 Hong Kong people between 24-26 June, 2008 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that as the eleventh anniversary draws near, Hong Kong people's feeling of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has reached record high since the survey started in 1997, whereas their positive appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies has also reached record high since this question started in 1999. Since this release occurs right before the handover anniversary, Robert Chung added, for most of the regular tracking surveys released by POP through our POP Site, POP has included half-yearly averages which are good for anniversary and year-end reviews. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures. The sampling error of the survey is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the survey is 72%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* Since the figures in this release come from the annual survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2008, these yearly figures are good for general reviews of Hong Kong's development.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,031 successful interviews, not 1,031 x 72.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum standard sampling error of this survey is +/-1.6 percentage points, meaning that at 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be +/-3.1 percentage points. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP SITE the latest survey results related to the handover anniversary. The two questions are "people's feeling of becoming a national citizen of China" and "people's evaluation of the policy of Central Government on Hong Kong". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
24-26/6/2008	1,031	72.1%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The survey results are tabulated below:

Date of survey	7-11/6/04	20-23/6/05	19-21/6/06	15-21/6/07	24-26/6/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,027	1,026	1,012	1,006	1,031		--
Overall response rate	66.9%	61.9%	58.2%	65.2%	72.1%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Being proud of becoming a national citizen of China	39%	46%	47%	48%	50%	+/-3%	+2%
Not being proud of becoming a national citizen of China	53%	45%	51%	50%	48%	+/-3%	-2%
Central Government's policy on HK: positive evaluations **	25%	36%	56%	56%	57%	+/-3%	+1%
Central Government's policy on HK: negative evaluations **	29%	15%	10%	10%	8%	+/-2%	-2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that, 50% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 48% said they did not have any special feeling. As for the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 57% of the respondents evaluated it positively, whereas 8% gave negative evaluations.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 15 to 21, 2007 while this survey was conducted from June 24 to 26, 2008. The two surveys were one year apart, and any of the significant events inside "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this press release would not further select the events from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online section.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "For a variety of reasons, the celebration of HKSAR's eleventh anniversary will be less eventful than before. Nevertheless, POP has continued to gauge Hong Kong people's feelings of the event using two tracking questions. Our latest survey shows that as the eleventh anniversary draws near, Hong Kong people's feeling of pride in becoming a Chinese national citizen has reached record high since the survey started in 1997, whereas their positive appraisal of the Central Government's Hong Kong policies has also reached record high since this question started in 1999."

Since this release occurs right before the handover anniversary, Robert Chung added, "For most of the regular tracking surveys released by POP through our POP Site, we have included half-yearly averages which are good for anniversary and year-end reviews. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly figures rather than yearly figures."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be July 2, 2008, Wednesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Mapping public opinion towards handover anniversaries

July 1, 1997 is an important date in Hong Kong's history. From the macroscopic perspective of opinion research, after the handover in 1997, July 1 each year has become a good time to summarize the development of public opinion. Therefore in 1997, POP started handover anniversary surveys which are conducted in June every year. We have explained the development of this survey in our press release of June 28, 2007. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such development:

For the first five years after the handover, HKUPOP's handover anniversary surveys generally included "People's feelings about the handover anniversary", "People's ethnic identity before and after the handover", "Overall evaluation of Hong Kong's condition after the handover", "People's evaluation of changes before and after the handover", People's feelings about the central government" and "People's evaluation of the policy of the central government on Hong Kong after the handover".

After 5 years, public mood has pacified, POP has therefore gradually reduced the number of survey items to two, namely, "people's ethnic identity before and after the handover" and "people's evaluation of the policy of the central government on Hong Kong after the handover". Last year, "people's sentiment towards the 10th anniversary handover" is resumed while "people's appraisal of top leaders of Hong Kong" is covered for the first time other than the above two questions. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you proud of formally becoming a national citizen of China after the 1997 Handover?", "How would you evaluate the policy of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the Handover?", "Hong Kong has returned to China for about X years. How do you feel right now?" and "Which of the following, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa or Chris Patten, do you think had performed the best as a top leader of Hong Kong?". The original two items are kept in this year's survey.

Regarding sample size, from the beginning to 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of handover anniversary survey in 1999 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the survey findings were released online. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.