HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of SAR, Central Back

Press Release on June 26, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong people between 18 and 20 June by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that although people's satisfaction with the government's performance, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in "one country, two systems" have all dropped significantly, their trust in the government has not changed much. The level of distrust has only increased by 5 percentage points, compared to two months ago, and is still a very minority view. Trust is a deeper measurement than satisfaction. On the other hand, with Ma Ying-jeou becoming Taiwan's new president, Hong Kong people's trust in the Taiwan government continues to surge, and their distrust continues to drop. Compared to 6 months ago, their distrust level has dropped 50 percentage points, to a historical low since the beginning of this survey series in 1993. Meanwhile, Hong Kong people's distrust in the Beijing Central Government has also dropped to historical low since the beginning of this survey series in 1992. According to Robert Chung, Director of POP, from the perspective of public opinion in Hong Kong, the thawing of cross-strait relationship has created a win-win situation for both governments across the strait. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,003 successful interviews, not 1,003 x 70.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Background

Since December 1992 and continuously for 15 years, POP has been regularly surveying Hong Kong people's opinion on the trust in cross-strait governments, as part of our survey series on national issues. All surveys on people's trust in Taiwan government conducted in or before June 1999 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our POP Site was established in June 2000, we gradually move our survey items on-line one by one. Because the issue of Taiwan has become a focus of public attention recently, and cross-strait relations is entering a new stage after the Taiwan presidential election, POP has decided to collate all previous findings on people's trust in Taiwan government together, and present them along with those of HKSAR and Central governments for public reference. As for previous findings already published in our POP Express, they are available in the "Archive" section of our POP Site.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
18-20/6/08	1,003	70.3%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Central and Taiwan Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:

Date of survey	22-25/10/07	11-14/12/07	28-29/2/08	23-25/4/08	18-20/6/08		Latest Change
Sample base	1,016	1,011	1,007	1,029	1,003		--
Overall response rate	67.4%	65.1%	69.2%	68.1%	70.3%		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%		--
Finding for each question / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	63%	51%	66%	60%	62%	+/-3%	+2%
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	9%	15%	5%	7%	12%	+/-2%	+5%
Trust in Beijing Government**	59%	49%	52%	55%	58%	+/-3%	+3%
Distrust in Beijing Government**	13%	19%	15%	13%	12%	+/-2%	-1%
Trust in Taiwan Government**	5%	5%	7%	19%	23%	+/-3%	+4%
Distrust in Taiwan Government**	67%	70%	53%	29%	20%	+/-3%	-9%
Confidence in HK's future	83%	79%	83%	80%	73%	+/-3%	-7%
No-confidence in HK's future	10%	16%	12%	15%	19%	+/-2%	+4%
Confidence in China's future	88%	88%	88%	88%	88%	+/-2%	--
No-confidence in China's future	7%	9%	8%	8%	8%	+/-2%	--
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	75%	73%	75%	77%	71%	+/-3%	-6%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	18%	22%	18%	17%	21%	+/-3%	+4%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Survey conducted in Mid-June revealed that 62% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 58% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 23% trusted the Taiwan Government. On the other hand, 73% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 88% had confidence in China's future, while 71% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2008 while this survey was conducted from 18-20/6/2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/6/08	Many newspaper report and discuss the closure of Tatami Hampton Hotel.
13/6/08	The mainland and Taiwan have agreed to regular weekend cross-strait charter flights and to allow more mainland tourists to visit Taiwan.
12/6/08	The mainland and Taiwan have agreed to open semi-official representative offices on each other's soil to strengthen cross-strait relations.
11/6/08	Bird flu virus is found in three more wet markets in Hong Kong.
10/6/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang apologizes for the arrangement of political appointments.
9/6/08	Government is uncertain of the source of bird flu virus.
7/6/08	The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in chickens at HK market.
6/6/08	Education Bureau announces that new arrangements will start in 2009-10 school year the earliest.
5/6/08	The Chief Executive's Office Chan Tak-lam says Government could have handled the deputy minister issue better.
31/5/08	Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen talks about Deputy Director of Bureau and Political Assistant in Shanghai.
28/5/08	Hu Jintao and Wu Poh-hsiung have a meeting at the Great Hall of the People.
25/5/08	A strong aftershock of 6.4 magnitude jolts Qingchuan county.
24/5/08	Premier Wen Jiabao meets UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon at quake epicentre.
21/5/08	The State Council will spend 70 billion yuan for rebuilding after the quake.
20/5/08	Ma Ying-jeou inaugurated as Taiwan's president.
19/5/08	The nation mourns at 2:28 pm for those who died in Sichuan earthquake.
18/5/08	The State Council announces national mourning on May 19 to 21.
17/5/08	Lakes formed by earthquake could burst, threatening millions in Sichuan.
16/5/08	President Hu Jintao stresses saving lives as top priority.
15/5/08	The rescue headquarters of the State Council estimate at least 50,000 people dead.
14/5/08	People's Liberation Army troops arrived Wenchuan and started to rescue.
13/5/08	Sichuan toll rises to 12,335, with 30,000 injured and 10,000 still under the rubble.
12/5/08	The strongest earthquake to hit China causes at least 8,749 peoples dead.
8/5/08	Chinese climbers, including Tibetans, take the Olympic flame to on top of Qomolangma.
7/5/08	1) Leakage of private data from HSBC and Immigration Department. 2) President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda have a meeting in Tokyo.
4/5/08	Chinese officials and representatives of the Dalai Lama have a meeting in Shenzhen.
2/5/08	The Olympic torch relay at Hong Kong completes.
30/4/08	The Beijing Olympic flame arrives in Hong Kong.
29/4/08	HK Sports Federation and Olympic Committee announces list of 120 bearers for Olympic torch relay.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Although our latest survey shows that people's satisfaction with the government's performance, their confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in "one country, two systems" have all dropped significantly, their trust in the government has not changed much. The level of distrust has only increased by 5 percentage points, compared to two months ago, and is still a very minority view. Trust is a deeper measurement than satisfaction. On the other hand, with Ma Ying-jeou becoming Taiwan's new president, Hong Kong people's trust in the Taiwan government continues to surge, and their distrust continues to drop. Compared to 6 months ago, their distrust level has dropped 50 percentage points, to a historical low since the beginning of this survey series in 1993. Meanwhile, Hong Kong people's distrust in the Beijing central government has also dropped to historical low since the beginning of this survey series in 1992. In other words, from the perspective of public opinion in Hong Kong, the thawing of cross-strait relationship has created a win-win situation for both governments across the strait. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of our opinion figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 27, 2008, Friday, between 1pm to 2pm, when figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will be released. Then on June 30, 2008, Monday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the latest results of the Handover Anniversary survey, and then on July 2, 2008, Wednesday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments as well as their confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of the surveys, we have explained it in our press release of August 22, November 7 and 28, December 14, 2006, February 21, April 26, June 14, August 21, November 6, December 18, 2007, March 4 as well as April 29, 2008. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by the HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.

Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.

Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.

(3) Mapping people's confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"

In December 1992, our survey series on people's confidence started. With respect to people's confidence in Hong Kong, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in HK's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until April 1998 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

As for people's confidence in China's future, the frequency was not quite stable at the beginning. Beginning in July 1997, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in China's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month at the beginning, but between January 1998 and July 2001, only 5 surveys were conducted on an irregular basis. Then, in August 2001, the survey began its regular course of development, and has been conducted once every two months since then.

As for people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the survey started in June 1993. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you have confidence in 'one country, two systems?". Surveys were conducted once every two months, until May 1995 when it was changed to once every month, but were later on changed to once every two months since February 1998. It has remained unchanged since then.

Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to June 2000, the sample size of "people's confidence in HK's future / "one country, two systems" survey was set at slightly over 500, while starting from May 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's confidence in China's future, since July 2001, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.

The above findings have all been published regularly on-line via our HKU POP Site, while all the previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded in various formats.