HKU POP SITE releases the survey on people's feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release on May 20, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens' feeling towards different governments and peoples this month, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that in almost half a year, Hong Kong people's negative feeling towards the Taiwan government has plunged 26 percentage points, their negative feeling towards the Japanese government dropped 16 percentage points, while their negative feeling towards the French government rose 16 percentage points. Our repeated surveys also show that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China. For the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the Taiwan people is 26 percentage points higher that that of the Taiwan government, their positive feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong government, while their positive feeling towards the people of Macau is 5 percentage points higher than that of the Macau government. However, their positive feeling towards Mainland Chinese people is 6 percentage points lower than that of the Mainland Chinese government. As for regions and countries beyond the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the people of Japan is 28 percentage points higher than that of the Japanese government, that towards the people of the United States is 18 percentage points higher than that of the American government, that towards the people of Thailand is 16 percentage points higher than that of the Thai government, and that towards the people of France is 11 percentage points higher than that of the French government. In terms of absolute percentages, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the United States, Taiwan, Japan, France and Russia, whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. This finding is worth studying by various governments. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 66%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,024 successful interviews, not 1,024 x 63.8% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 65.5% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the survey findings on Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the second time. As a general practice, all figures released today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
2-6/5/08 (First stage naming survey)	1,024	63.8%	+/-3%
14-16/5/08 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,005	65.5%	+/-3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error.

The research design of our survey on "people's feeling towards different governments and peoples" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people's feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people's cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as "very positive", "quite positive", "half-half", "quite negative" or "very negative". In our first stage survey conducted on May 2-6, the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, France and Australia were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on May 14-16, its results are summarized below. Except for the four cross-strait regions, all others are ranked according to Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards their people:

Date of survey		3-7/12/07		14-16/5/08
Sample base		1,012		1,005
Overall response rate		68.3%		65.5%
Maximum sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*		+/-4%		+/-4%
Items		Feeling towards different governments	Feeling towards different peoples	Feeling towards different governments				Feeling towards different peoples
Finding/Sampling error*		Finding	Finding	Base#	Finding	Sampling error	Latest change^	Base#	Finding	Sampling error	Latest change^	Difference with gov'ts' findings
Hong Kong	Positive**	47%	58%	537	42%	+/-4%	-5%	537	57%	+/-4%	-1%	+15%
Hong Kong	Negative**	9%	5%	537	8%	+/-2%	-1%	537	3%	+/-1%	-2%	-5%
Mainland	Positive**	49%	39%	565	48%	+/-4%	-1%	565	42%	+/-4%	+3%	-6%
Mainland	Negative**	12%	16%	565	8%	+/-2%	-4%	565	13%	+/-3%	-3%	+5%
Taiwan	Positive**	10%	40%	532	22%	+/-4%	+12%	532	48%	+/-4%	+8%	+26%
Taiwan	Negative**	56%	10%	532	30%	+/-4%	-26%	532	5%	+/-2%	-5%	-25%
Macau	Positive**	44%	51%	572	41%	+/-4%	-3%	572	46%	+/-4%	-5%	+5%
Macau	Negative**	14%	3%	572	6%	+/-2%	-8%	572	2%	+/-1%	-1%	-4%
Singapore	Positive**	59%	63%	585	54%	+/-4%	-5%	585	57%	+/-4%	-6%	+3%
Singapore	Negative**	7%	3%	585	8%	+/-2%	+1%	585	2%	+/-1%	-1%	-6%
Canada	Positive**	45%	52%	607	46%	+/-4%	+1%	607	53%	+/-4%	+1%	+7%
Canada	Negative**	4%	1%	607	2%	+/-1%	-2%	607	1%	+/-1%	--	-1%
Japan	Positive**	17%	46%	560	19%	+/-3%	+2%	560	47%	+/-4%	+1%	+28%
Japan	Negative**	43%	12%	560	27%	+/-4%	-16%	560	7%	+/-2%	-5%	-20%
Australia	Positive**	46%	47%	541	39%	+/-4%	-7%	541	46%	+/-4%	-1%	+7%
Australia	Negative**	4%	3%	541	4%	+/-2%	--	541	3%	+/-1%	--	-1%
South Korea	Positive**	39%	45%	568	32%	+/-4%	-7%	568	40%	+/-4%	-5%	+8%
South Korea	Negative**	11%	8%	568	9%	+/-2%	-2%	568	6%	+/-2%	-2%	-3%
Thailand	Positive**	20%	40%	663	23%	+/-3%	+3%	663	39%	+/-4%	-1%	+16%
Thailand	Negative**	29%	9%	663	19%	+/-3%	-10%	663	7%	+/-2%	-2%	-12%
United Kingdom	Positive**	38%	45%	523	34%	+/-4%	-4%	523	36%	+/-4%	-9%	+2%
United Kingdom	Negative**	12%	7%	523	12%	+/-3%	--	523	6%	+/-2%	-1%	-6%
USA	Positive**	16%	41%	599	15%	+/-3%	-1%	599	33%	+/-4%	-8%	+18%
USA	Negative**	45%	8%	599	41%	+/-4%	-4%	599	10%	+/-2%	+2%	-31%
Germany	Positive**	26%	31%	566	27%	+/-4%	+1%	566	32%	+/-4%	+1%	+5%
Germany	Negative**	6%	3%	566	7%	+/-2%	+1%	566	3%	+/-1%	--	-4%
Italy	Positive**	18%	28%	527	19%	+/-3%	+1%	527	28%	+/-4%	--	+9%
Italy	Negative**	6%	4%	527	6%	+/-2%	--	527	4%	+/-2%	--	-2%
France	Positive**	24%	32%	611	16%	+/-3%	-8%	611	27%	+/-4%	-5%	+11%
France	Negative**	7%	7%	611	23%	+/-3%	+16%	611	11%	+/-3%	+4%	-12%
Russia	Positive**	17%	26%	552	16%	+/-3%	-1%	552	19%	+/-3%	-7%	+3%
Russia	Negative**	24%	7%	552	21%	+/-3%	-3%	552	4%	+/-2%	-3%	-17%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
^ comparison made with survey findings of 3-7/12/07.

Findings obtained in mid-May showed that, regarding the results of people's feeling towards different governments, 42% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while 8% felt negative. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR governments were 48%, 22% and 41%, while the corresponding negative figures were 8%, 30% and 6%. As for other governments, the positive figures for Singapore, Canada and Australia were 54%, 46% and 39% respectively, while those for the United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, Thailand, Japan, Italy, France and Russia were 34%, 32%, 27%, 23%, 19%, 19%, 16% and 16% correspondingly. Lastly, only 15% expressed positive feelings towards the government of the United States.

As regards the results of people's feeling towards different peoples, latest survey showed that 57% felt positive towards the HKSAR people while 3% felt negative. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR peoples were 42%, 48% and 46%, while the corresponding negative figures were 13%, 5% and 2%. As for the peoples of other regions and countries, the positive figures for Singapore, Canada and Japan were highest, with 57%, 53% and 47% respectively, while those for Australia, South Korea, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Italy and France were 46%, 40%, 39%, 36%, 33%, 32%, 28% and 27% correspondingly. Lastly, only 19% expressed positive feelings towards the people of Russia.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 3 to 7, 2007 while this survey was conducted from May 14 to 16, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

16/5/08	The rescue headquarters of the State Council estimate at least 50,000 people dead.
15/5/08	President Hu Jintao stresses saving lives as top priority.
14/5/08	People's Liberation Army troops arrive Wenchuan and start to rescue.
13/5/08	Sichuan toll rises to 12,335, with 30,000 injured and 10,000 still under the rubble.
12/5/08	The strongest earthquake to hit China causes at least 8,749 peoples dead.
8/5/08	Chinese climbers, including Tibetans, take the Olympic flame to on top of Qomolangma.
7/5/08	President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda have a meeting in Tokyo.
4/5/08	Chinese officials and representatives of the Dalai Lama have a meeting in Shenzhen.
2/5/08	The Olympic torch relay at Hong Kong completes.
30/4/08	The Beijing Olympic flame arrives in Hong Kong.
29/4/08	HK Sports Federation and Olympic Committee announces list of 120 bearers for Olympic torch relay.
28/4/08	At least 70 dead and 420 injured as trains collide in Shandong, China.
25/4/08	The Department of Health loses 691 records of patients.
24/4/08	Mainland Index shoot up around 9 per cent.
23/4/08	Mainland slashes stampduty on stocks.
22/4/08	Hong Kong will build a rail link connecting the city to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
20/4/08	French protests spread across China.
13/4/08	Siew Wan-chang finds the Boao Forum fruitful.
12/4/08	Hu Jintao and Siew Wan-chang meet in Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan.
11/4/08	Former Shanghai Party chief Chen Liangyu is jailed for 18 years.
8/4/08	Olympic torch relay could be cut short.
7/4/08	Protest mounts during the Olympic torch relay in Paris.
31/3/08	1) Shoppers stocks up for fear of price rise while Beijing ensures adequate supplies of rice to HK and Macau. 2) The Olympic torch relay starts.
27/3/08	Li Ka-shing says the sub-prime problem in US will affect HK's economy.
26/3/08	1) Beijing Olympic Games becomes politicized due to Tibet incident. 2) Classes set to resume on next Monday as flu risk receding.
24/3/08	1) The flame for the Beijing Games are ignited at the sacred site of ancient Olympia. 2) Many newspapers report the effects of Ma Ying-jeou's victory as Taiwan's president on cross-strait development.
23/3/08	Ma Ying-jeou expresses his views on cross-strait issues after elected as Taiwan's president.
22/3/08	Ma Ying-jeou wins Taiwan's presidential election.
21/3/08	Taiwan's presidential election will be held tomorrow.
18/3/08	The first session of the 11th National People's Congress closes.
16/3/08	Riots stopped in Tibet, but violence spreads to Sichuan.
15/3/08	At least 10 people have been killed in Lhasa's violence.
14/3/08	Secretary for Food and Health York Chow anticipates that the flu could continue until April or afterward.
13/3/08	Proposal of reforming public health system is officially released.
12/3/08	York Chow announces all primary schools, special schools, nurseries and kindergartens will be closed for two weeks.
5/3/08	Premier Wen Jiabao delivers government work report in National People's Congress.
29/2/08	Government announces 2008-09 new land Application List.
28/2/08	The governments of HK, Guangdong, and Macau endorse the financing scheme for bridges linking the three places and the project will soon proceed to public tenders.
27/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers his first financial budget, returning up to $100b to the people.
24/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will announce his first financial budget for the upcoming year on Wednesday.
22/2/08	Education Bureau proposes secondary schools to be given freedom of choosing which language to use for teaching.
16/2/08	More progress is made on cross-Pearl River Delta bridge development with settlement of financing proposal.
8/2/08	The lucky fortune stick drawn for Hong Kong bodes well for the Year of the Rat.
5/2/08	Ching Cheong is released on parole.
3/2/08	Newspapers follow and discuss the snowstorm in Mainland.
1/2/08	Various local organizations give hands in relief work for Mainland's persistent snowstorm.
30/1/08	Guilty of 57 charges, Macau's former transport and public works chief Ao Man-long sentenced to 27 years in jail.
29/1/08	Chaos caused by snowfalls in Mainland is getting worse, Premier Wen Jiabao visits Hunan to follow the relief work.
27/1/08	Food supply to HK is also affected as chaos caused by heavy snow continues in Mainland.
26/1/08	Rail services are disrupted due to blizzards in China.
25/1/08	36 deputies are elected to represent HK in the National People's Congress.
24/1/08	Societe Generale uncovered a EUR 4.9 billion fraud by a junior trader in Paris.
23/1/08	Responding to Fed's rate-cut, local banks reduce interest-rate by 0.75%.
22/1/08	US cuts interest rates by 0.75% to stop global financial crisis.
19/1/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will deliver his first financial budget at the end of February.
12/1/08	Kuomintang scores a sweeping victory in Taiwan's legislative election with 81 seats.
7/1/08	HK Gov't reaches agreement with CLP Power and HK Electric to reduce their permitted rate of return to 9.99%.
30/12/07	The decision made by NPC regarding the introduction of universal suffrage for CE and Legco in HK becomes a controversial issue.
29/12/07	National People's Congress to rule out universal suffrage for the election of the chief executive and all legislators in 2012.
25/12/07	10,000 people take a ride on the Ngong Ping 360 cable car on Christmas day to test the new system's ability to handle heavy crowds.
22/12/07	Ngong Ping 360 cable car is relaunched for trial-run successfully after stopped service for half year.
21/12/07	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will raise tariffs by 4.5 and 6 percent, respectively, from New Years Day.
20/12/07	The NPC Standing Committee will soon discuss the consultation report on HK constitutional reform submitted by Donald Tsang.
12/12/07	CE submits a report on political reform to Central Gov't.
11/12/07	Mainland inflation hits an 11-year high of 6.9 percent last month.
5/12/07	Tsang Tak-sing criticizes Anson Chan for being "sudden democrat" and her "sudden support for livelihood".

It can be seen that in terms of events covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper in the form of headline stories in any particular day, there were very few headline stories related to events outside Hong Kong and Mainland China, between the two surveys, mainly about the Taiwan presidential election and Olympic torch relay. Therefore, exactly how Hong Kong people form their attitude towards different governments and peoples is definitely worth studying.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "We started our survey on Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments in 1997, in order to study Hong Kong people's international perspective. Our repeated surveys show that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China. For the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the Taiwan people is 26 percentage points higher that that of the Taiwan government, their positive feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 15 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong government, while their positive feeling towards the people of Macau is 5 percentage points higher than that of the Macau government. However, their positive feeling towards Mainland Chinese people is 6 percentage points lower than that of the Mainland Chinese government. As for regions and countries beyond the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the people of Japan is 28 percentage points higher than that of the Japanese government, that towards the people of the United States is 18 percentage points higher than that of the American government, that towards the people of Thailand is 16 percentage points higher than that of the Thai government, and that towards the people of France is 11 percentage points higher than that of the French government. In terms of absolute percentages, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the United States, Taiwan, Japan, France and Russia, whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them. This finding is worth studying by various governments. Moreover, also worth noting is that in almost half a year, Hong Kong people's negative feeling towards the Taiwan government has plunged 26 percentage points, their negative feeling towards the Japanese government dropped 16 percentage points, while their negative feeling towards the French government rose 16 percentage points. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 27, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's feelings towards different governments and peoples

As the world progresses, Hong Kong people need to know and care more about the world, on top of their concern for local matters. Around the time of Hong Kong's handover, we at HKUPOP began to measure Hong Kong people's global views, while at the same time stepping up our surveys on national issues. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on 31 December, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

In April 1997, our survey series on people's feelings towards different governments began. The wordings used in the questionnaire were "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX government?" We first measured people's feelings towards the Hong Kong, Mainland, British, Taiwanese, Japanese and American governments. Surveys were conducted twice every year at irregular intervals, and after a pause in 2001, we rescheduled our surveys in 2002 to once a year. It has remained unchanged until the end of 2006. As for people's feelings towards the Canadian, Australian, Russian, Indian, Filipino, Indonesian, Vietnamese, Singaporean and Macau governments, we began our survey in September 1997 using the same wordings, but our schedule was to conduct one survey every year. Except for 2001 when no survey was conducted, our schedule has remained unchanged until the end of 2006, except for Macau. We first measured people's feeling towards the Macau government in 1997, then stopped, and resumed our survey in 2004 once very year.

Starting from May 2007, this survey series is conducted twice every year and is divided into two stages, i.e. naming survey and opinion survey. Then since December 2007, the part on "people's feeling towards different peoples" has also been added. In the naming survey, question wordings used are "Other than the HKSAR, Mainland, Macau and Taiwan, please name up to 10 regions and countries with which you are most familiar" while the wordings used in the opinion survey are "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX government" and "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX people". Regions covered include the HKSAR, Mainland, Macau and Taiwan, together with those 12 which are mentioned most frequently in the naming stage.

Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500, while beginning from 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's feelings towards the Macau government, since 2004, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.

The findings of our surveys on "people's feelings towards the Mainland, British and HKSAR governments" conducted in 1998 and 1999 had been published in our newsletter POP Express, and have also been uploaded on-line at our HKU POP Site. As for the other figures, they are released via our HKU POP Site as well.