HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive CouncilBack

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of non-official Executive Councillors last month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that after David Li resigned from the Executive Council in mid-February, his position on the list is taken over by Bernard Chan. In our last survey, Anthony Cheung made it to our list of "top five" for the first time, after passing the recognition benchmark, and topped the list with the highest support rating. This time, Cheung drops out of the list again, and his position was taken over by Ronald Arculli. As for the other three places, they go to Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang again, rankings unchanged. Robert Chung, Director of POP, observed, Selina Chow used to have high recognition rates, her popularity rating had a big plunge last time, but it has significantly recovered this time. However, because this survey was conducted before Chow publicly accepted her responsibility on matters related to the accounts of the Hong Kong Tourism Board, whether her apology would boost her popularity rating further is yet to be seen. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.2 and 2.0 while the response rate of the rating survey is 68%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 69.6% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,029 successful interviews, not 1,029 x 68.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest ratings of the Top 5 members of Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2007 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
16-18/4/2008 （First stage naming survey）	1,009	69.6%	+/-3%
23-25/4/2008 （Second stage rating survey）	1,029	68.1%	+/-2.0

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang, Bernard Chan, Laura Cha, Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, Anthony Cheung, Fan Hung-ling and Andrew Liao were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-April, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07	23-28/1/08	23-25/4/08			Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,013	1,009	1,019	1,029			--
Overall response rate	63.3%	63.8%	66.3%	67.4%	68.1%			--
Maximum sampling error of rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.8	+/-2.0			--
Finding / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	Recognition rate
Ronald Arculli	60.1 [1]	--	62.5 [1]	--	61.1 [1]	+/-1.2	75.0%	--
Selina Chow	58.7 [2]	60.4 [2]	59.1 [2]	53.0 [2]	55.7 [2]	+/-1.4	89.2%	+2.7
Bernard Chan	57.2 [**]	--	--	53.9 [**]	55.5 [3]	+/-1.6	46.2%	+1.6
Leung Chun-ying	52.5 [4]	54.6 [3]	54.1 [3]	49.6 [4]	51.2 [4]	+/-1.6	79.6%	+1.6
Jasper Tsang	51.8 [5]	54.4 [4]	50.7 [5]	48.7 [5]	49.8 [5]	+/-1.6	82.7%	+1.1
Laura Cha	--	--	--	--	53.6 [**]	+/-2.0	33.8%	--
Anthony Cheung	--	57.5 [**]	57.7 [**]	56.4 [1]	--	--	--	--
David Li	54.9 [3]	53.3 [5]	--	52.8 [3]	--	--	--	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	--	55.8 [**]	51.0 [4]	--	--	--	--	--
Rafael Hui	--	61.7 [1]	--	--	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in late-April showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 61.1 marks. The 2nd and 3rd rank went to Selina Chow and Bernard Chan, with 55.7 and 55.5 marks respectively. The 4th rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 51.2 marks. Jasper Tsang occupied the 5th rank, attaining 49.8 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 54.7 marks. For this latest survey, Laura Cha obtained a support rating of 53.6 marks, but she was dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07	23-28/1/08	23-25/4/08	No. of times on top 5	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Selina Chow	60.4	59.1	53.0	55.7	4	57.1	1
Leung Chun-ying	54.6	54.1	49.6	51.2	4	52.4	2
Jasper Tsang	54.4	50.7	48.7	49.8	4	50.9	3
Ronald Arculli	^	62.5	^	61.1	2	61.8	4
David Li	53.3	^	52.8	^	2	53.1	5
Rafael Hui	61.7	^	^	^	1	61.7	6
Anthony Cheung	^	^	56.4	^	1	56.4	7
Bernard Chan	^	^	^	55.5	1	55.5	8
Cheng Yiu-tong	^	51.0	^	^	1	51.0	9

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.1 marks, Leung Chun-ying who ranked 2nd and attained 52.4 marks, Jasper Tsang who ranked 3rd with 50.9 marks. Ronald Arculli and David Li have been on the list for two times and occupied the 4th and 5th places with 61.8 and 53.1 marks. Four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list once. They were Rafael Hui, Anthony Cheung, Bernard Chan and Cheng Yiu-tong who ranked 6th to 9th with 61.7, 56.4, 55.5 and 51.0 marks respectively.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from January 23 to 28, 2008 while this survey was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/4/08	The Department of Health loses records of 691 patients.
22/4/08	Hong Kong will build a rail link connecting the city to Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
16/4/08	Inflation is turning up around the globe.
9/4/08	Budget airline Oasis Hong Kong collapses.
31/3/08	Shoppers stocks up for fear of price rise while Beijing ensures adequate supplies of rice to HK and Macau.
28/3/08	Many newspapers comment on Martin Lee's decision of stepping down from the Legislative Council.
25/3/08	Hang Seng Index rises 1,356 points.
19/3/08	HK banks cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points.
14/3/08	Secretary for Food and Health York Chow anticipates that the flu could continue until April or afterward.
13/3/08	Proposal of reforming public health system is officially released.
12/3/08	York Chow announces all primary schools, special schools, nurseries and kindergartens will be closed for two weeks.
3/3/08	HSBC Holdings report 2007 net profit jumps to US$19.1 billion.
29/2/08	Government announces 2008-09 new land Application List.
28/2/08	The governments of HK, Guangdong, and Macau endorse the financing scheme for bridges linking the three places and the project will soon proceed to public tenders.
27/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah delivers his first finanical budget, returning up to $100b to the people.
24/2/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will announce his first financial budget for the upcoming year on Wednesday.
22/2/08	Education Bureau proposes secondary schools to be given freedom of choosing which language to use for teaching.
16/2/08	More progress is made on cross-Pearl River Delta bridge development with settlement of financing proposal.
11/2/08	Hang Seng Index falls 853 points in the first trading day of Chinese New Year.
5/2/08	Ching Cheong is released on parole.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "This is the first survey conducted after David Li resigned from the Executive Council in mid-February. Li ranked third on the list last time, his position was taken over by Bernard Chan. In our last survey, Anthony Cheung made it to our list of "top five" for the first time, after passing the recognition benchmark, he also topped the list with the highest support rating. This time, Cheung drops out of the list again, and his position was taken over by Ronald Arculli. As for the other three places, they go to Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang again, rankings unchanged. It should be noted that Selina Chow, who used to have high recognition rates, had a big plunge in popularity rating last time, but it has significantly recovered this time. However, because this survey was conducted before Selina Chow publicly accepted her responsibility on matters related to the accounts of the Hong Kong Tourism Board, whether her apology would boost her popularity rating further is yet to be seen. It should also be noted that our list of "top five" only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 13, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

Popularity survey of Top 5 members of Executive Council

The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on November 21, 2006, February 13, May 22, August 6, November 20, 2007 as well as January 29, 2008. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

• From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey once every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 month until May 2002.



• From August 2002 to February 2005, it was conducted once every 6 months. HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"



• Meanwhile, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as a non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under the accountability system), their ratings were conducted even more frequently.



• In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. In July 2007, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official member to 16 by adding one more member. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming stage and one rating stage, and its current cycle is once every 3 months.



• Regarding sample size, from the beginning up to now, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 1,000. All the findings are released on POP Site.