HKU POP SITE releases the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang   and Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

| Special Announcement | | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |

In response to the public call of the Electoral Affairs Commission, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, will attend the public forum to be held on April 10, 2008 at 2:30 pm at the EAC Conference Room, 10/F Harbour Centre, 25 Harbour Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong, to make an oral presentation on the proposed changes to the guidelines on exit polls under Chapter 15 of the proposed guidelines on election-related activities. Robert Chung will submit a written representation to EAC before attending the forum, then makes an oral representation, and then upload his submission onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption.

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,047 Hong Kong people between 1 and 3 April by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that FS John Tsang's support rate has dropped 11 percentage points compared to one month ago, probably due to the fading away of the Budget effect, and the appearance of inflation problems. Looking only at changes in approval rates over the past month, other significant changes beyond sampling errors include: That of CS Henry Tang increased 6 percentage points, that of Secretary for Education Michael Suen dropped 7 percentage points, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow both dropped 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee is now the only official with "ideal" performance. Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as "successful", Carrie Lam, York Chow, Frederick Ma, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as "mediocre", and Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Edward Yau can be labeled as "inconspicuous". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous". The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-2 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,047 successful interviews, not 1,047 x 63.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-2 to 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.1 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table be briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on March 6, 2008, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 5 to 9, 2008 while this survey was conducted from April 1 to 3, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Looking only at changes in approval rates over the past month, among CE and all principal officials, the following changes are significant beyond sampling errors: The approval rate of CS Henry Tang increased 6 percentage points, that of FS John Tsang dropped 11 percentage points, Secretary for Education Michael Suen dropped 7 percentage points, Secretary for Development Carrie Lam and Secretary for Food and Health York Chow both dropped 5 percentage points. According to the benchmarks set by us quite some time ago, Ambrose Lee is now the only official with 'ideal' performance. Donald Tsang, Henry Tang, John Tsang, Wong Yan-lung and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as 'successful', Carrie Lam, York Chow, Frederick Ma, Michael Suen, Tsang Tak-sing and Stephen Lam can be labeled as 'mediocre', and Eva Cheng, Denise Yue, Ceajer Chan and Edward Yau can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous'. As for the reasons affecting the popularity change of these officials, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page. The 11 percentage point drop of FS John Tsang can probably be explained by the fading away of the Budget effect, and the appearance of inflation problems."

The following table summarizes the grading of the principal officials for readers' easy reference:

Regarding the grading system of these officials, Robert Chung further explained, "A new grading system was adopted last year for the HKCEE Chinese Language and English Language, whereby the old 'pulling curve' system using a six-grade norm reference approach was replaced by a standard-referenced approach with six grades from Level '1' to '5*'. This should have deepened people''s understanding of the standard-referenced approach, which is fairly similar to POP's grading system of principal officials. We therefore would not object to community members using Level '1' to '5*' to describe the popularity of principle officials."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be April 11, 2008, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the findings of Tibet issues will be released. Then on April 15, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release people's appraisal of local news media.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials

In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31, 2006, January 16 and 31, February 8, March 13, June 12, August 14, September 11, October 16, November 13, December 11, 2007, February 12 as well as March 11, 2008. Today, we post it again, so that readers can review such development.

(1) Development of CE's popularity survey

• From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, POP has continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity rating of Governor Chris Patten. After the handover when Tung Chee-hwa became the first Chief Executive in 1997, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang succeeded, POP has begun to measure Tsang's popularity. The frequency of our surveys was at least once every month during the Patten era. It was then increased to three times per month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards, it was reduced to twice every month.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "popularity of Governor or CE" survey are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Governor/ the Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Governor/the Chief Executive XXX?" and "If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for XXX?".

• Before April 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Development of CE's popularity (performance) survey

• The frequency of our surveys was once every two months since August 2002. From February 2004 onwards, it was reduced to once every six months.
  
  
• The question wordings used in "CE popularity (performance)" survey are: "Do you think XXX is doing a good or bad job as CE?"
  
  
• Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000.
  
  

(3) Development of the survey for Secretaries of Departments:

• For the rating survey of the Secretaries of Departments, in between January to November 2001, the frequency of the survey was conducted on an irregular basis. From January 2002 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month. For the support rates of the Secretaries based on people's hypothetical vote of confidence, it was surveyed once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then it was changed to once every two months from February 2004 to December 2005. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month.
  
  

• The wordings used in the questionnaire are: 「Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to Chief Secretary for Administration XXX/Financial Secretary YYY/Secretary for Justice ZZZ, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX/YYY/ZZZ?」. For the support rates of Secretaries, the wordings are 「If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX/YYY/ZZZ as the Chief Secretary for Administration/Financial Secretary/Secretary for Justice tomorrow, how would you vote?」
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000.

(4) Development of the survey for Directors of Bureaux:

• For the rating survey of the Directors of Bureaux, in between June 2002 to December 2005, the frequency was once every month. From January 2006 to June 2007, the survey is conducted once every two months. For the support rates of Directors of Bureaux, the frequency was once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then from February 2004 to June 2007, the survey was conducted once every two months. In July 2007, with the beginning of CE's new term of office and the appointment of new principal officials, the frequency of support rate survey of the Directors of Bureaux was increased to once every month, while the frequency of rating survey was reduced to once every three months. Moreover, although all survey results are uploaded onto the POP Site in detail, POP no longer analyze the result of rating surveys. This is to better match the evolvement of the accountability system as well as the pace of democratic development.
  
  

• Similar to the popularity survey of the Secretaries of Departments, that of the Directors of Bureaux also includes the questions of rating and hypothetical voting. The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?" and "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX as YYYYYYYYY tomorrow, how would you vote?" However, the two questions are may not be asked in different the same surveys separately.
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to December 2005, the sample size of the surveys was set at slightly over 1,000. However, from 2006 onwards, this series of questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, and the sample size for each question also varies.

All the findings from our surveys on 「popularity of principal officials」 have been released online through our HKU POP Site.

| Special Announcement | | Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of Principal Officials) |