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The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,026 Hong Kong people between 18 and 20 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that there is little change in the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang over the last two weeks, while compared to a month ago, the popularity of the SAR Government has slightly increased, now approaching the level registered before CE Donald Tsang submitted his report on political reform to the Central Government near the end of last year. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rate over the 5 specific areas of government performance has all rebounded, to that registered before the end of December last year. According to Robert Chung, Director of POP, this shows that the effect of the political row over constitutional reform on public opinion has receded, at least for the time being. Chung also observed, in terms of opinion structure, people are consistently most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, followed by its performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedoms. They are least satisfied with its performance in developing democracy and improving people's livelihood, both with satisfaction rates below 40%. The sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 66%.
Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,026 successful interviews, not 1,026 x 65.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure is +/-1.2. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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The latest survey conducted in late-March showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 64.3 marks, and 64% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 53% were satisfied, whereas 10% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
19-21/3/07 |
15-21/6/07 |
17-21/9/07 |
19-24/12/07 |
18-20/3/08 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,007 |
1,006 |
1,008 |
1,019 |
1,026 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.6% |
65.2% |
65.5% |
66.2% |
65.7% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Finding /Sampling error* |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Error |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate** |
67% |
65% |
70% |
60% |
64% |
+/-3% |
+4% |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate** |
8% |
8% |
9% |
13% |
8% |
+/-2% |
-5% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate** |
56% |
57% |
58% |
54% |
57% |
+/-3% |
+3% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate** |
11% |
13% |
16% |
18% |
13% |
+/-2% |
-5% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate** |
50% |
50% |
54% |
48% |
49% |
+/-3% |
+1% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate** |
17% |
19% |
17% |
19% |
18% |
+/-2% |
-1% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate** |
37% |
36% |
32% |
29% |
39% |
+/-3% |
+10% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate** |
23% |
26% |
34% |
35% |
26% |
+/-3% |
-9% |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate** |
37% |
34% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
+/-3% |
+3% |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate** |
28% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
28% |
+/-3% |
-4% |
* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 64%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 57% and 49% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 39% and 37% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in improving people's livelihood as well as developing democracy. |
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In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of 「Opinion Daily」 will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the 「Opinion Daily」 feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on December 20, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from December 19 to 24, 2007 while this survey was conducted from March 18 to 20, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「There is very little change in the popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang over the last two weeks. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, there is a slight increase compared to a month ago, now approaching the level registered before CE Donald Tsang submitted his report on political reform to the Central Government near the end of last year. It seems that the effect of the political row over constitutional reform on public opinion has receded for the time being. Probably due to the same reason, people's satisfaction of the government's performance in 5 specific areas has all rebounded, to that registered before the end of December last year. Among them, obviously due to the Budget effect, "improving people's livelihood" has gone up most, now at record high since this survey series started in July 1997. In terms of opinion structure, people are consistently most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, followed by its performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedoms, and least satisfied with its performance in developing democracy and improving people's livelihood. The last two have remained low, with satisfaction rates below 40%. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures across different surveys, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".」
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 27, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will be released. Then on April 1, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is 「About HKUPOP」. In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006, April 3, July 3, September 25 as well as December 28, 2007. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments
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Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.
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Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are 「On the whole, do you trust such and such government?」. Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government
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In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.
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Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are 「Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?」.
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Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: 「Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?」 The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.
Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.
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