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The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,017 Hong Kong people between 12 and 14 March by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to three months ago, although Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has remained high and stable, the percentage who opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has significantly dropped, and the percentage of those who expressed confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait, and those who said 'one country, two systems' is applicable to Taiwan have both increased significantly. The last figure has even reached record high since we started to ask this question in 1996. According to Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, who happens to be in Taiwan now observing the presidential election, this is probably caused by the fading away of the 'Eradication of Chiang Kai-shek Presence' and 'Eradication of Chinese Influence' Campaigns which took place in Taiwan not too long ago, and recent developments of the presidential election. Chung said, record shows that Hong Kong newspapers rarely use cross-strait stories as headlines, meaning that media attention to Taiwan affairs is low, and people's knowledge of Taiwan is quite limited. With the onset of the Taiwan presidential election, Chung called on Hong Kong media to report the event with multiple angles and directions, in order to improve people's knowledge of Taiwan. The sampling error of all percentages released today is between +/-1 to +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 66%.
Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,017 successful interviews, not 1,017 x 65.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-1 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on September 6, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from September 4 to 7, 2007 while this survey was conducted from March 12 to 14, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
On the survey findings related to Taiwan issues, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, who happens to be in Taiwan now, observed, "Compared to three months ago, although Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan has remained high and stable, the percentage who opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has significantly dropped, and the percentage of those who expressed confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait, and those who said 'one country, two systems' is applicable to Taiwan have both increased significantly. The last figure has even reached record high since we started to ask this question in 1996. This significant increase was probably caused by the fading away of the 'Eradication of Chiang Kai-shek Presence' and 'Eradication of Chinese Influence' Campaigns which took place in Taiwan not too long ago, and recent developments of the presidential election. According to records in our 'Opinion Daily', local newspapers rarely use cross-strait stories as headlines, meaning that there is little media attention to events happening in Taiwan. Hong Kong people's knowledge of Taiwan may, therefore, be very limited. With the onset of the Taiwan presidential election, if our Hong Kong media can report the event with multiple angles and directions, the situation might well be improved."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government on March 25, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm. Then on March 27, 2008, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Taiwan issues and appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders
Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Taiwan issues and the appraisal of deceased Chinese leaders long time ago. We have explained the development of the Taiwan issues surveys and that of the "appraisal of past Chinese leaders" survey in our press releases of September 18, 2007. Today, we post it again, so that readers can refresh their memory on such development.
(1) Taiwan issue
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Two years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions.
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In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?"
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
(2) Appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders
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Since February 1995, POP has surveyed people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, including Deng Xiaoping, Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek. Our series stopped in July 2003, but then resumed in March 2005. Except Deng Xiaoping, others have been replaced by more recently deceased leaders, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun. From the beginning to January 1997, the survey was conducted almost once every month until February 1997 when it was then changed to about once every four months. Since July 2000, it was changed to once every six months (except 2004 when no poll was conducted) to cope with the social development.
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The question wordings used in "appraisal of past Chinese leaders" survey are, "Would you say Mao Zedong/ Zhou Enlai/ Chiang Kai Shek/ Deng Xiaoping/ Zhao Ziyang/ Yang Shangkun has accrued more merit or demerit in the development of China?".
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
Our findings of Taiwan issues and appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders surveys are released online via POP Site.
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