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The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people between 28 and 29 February by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey finds that after the Budget speech, people's trust in the SAR government has soared 15 percentage points compared to almost three months ago, back to the level registered half year ago. However, because setting the Budget is an internal affair for the SAR government, its effect is apparently restricted only to the popularity of our local government and people's confidence in Hong Kong's future. In our survey, there is very little change in people's trust in the central government, their confidence in the future of China and their confidence in "one country, two systems". The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the survey is 69%.
Points to note:
* The address of the 「HKU POP SITE」 is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 69.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all percentages is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level. 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state 「sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level」.
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses 「computerized random telephone survey」 to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
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In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of 「Opinion Daily」 will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the 「Opinion Daily」 feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from December 11 to 14, 2007 while this survey was conducted from February 28 to 29, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「In our latest tracking survey conducted after the Budget speech, people's trust in the SAR government has soared 15 percentage points, compared to almost three months ago, back to the level registered half year ago. Almost three months ago, that figure dropped rapidly, probably due to the effect of two major elections and CE's submission of his report on political reform to the central government, according to our analysis then. Almost three months later, whatever negative effect those events carried has been completely neutralized by the Budget. However, because setting the Budget is an internal affair for the SAR government, its effect is apparently restricted only to the popularity of our local government and people's confidence in Hong Kong's future. There is understandably little change in people's trust in the central government, their confidence in the future of China and their confidence in "one country, two systems". As to other events affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".」
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 11, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials will be released.
It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is 「About HKUPOP」.
About HKUPOP
Mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of the surveys, we have explained it in our press release of August 22, November 7 and 28, December 14, 2006, February 21, April 26, June 14, August 21, November 6, as well as December 18, 2007. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments
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Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by the HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.
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Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
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Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.
(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government
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In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.
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Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"
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Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.
(3) Mapping people's confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"
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In December 1992, our survey series on people's confidence started. With respect to people's confidence in Hong Kong, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in HK's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until April 1998 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
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As for people's confidence in China's future, the frequency was not quite stable at the beginning. Beginning in July 1997, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in China's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month at the beginning, but between January 1998 and July 2001, only 5 surveys were conducted on an irregular basis. Then, in August 2001, the survey began its regular course of development, and has been conducted once every two months since then.
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As for people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the survey started in June 1993. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you have confidence in 'one country, two systems?". Surveys were conducted once every two months, until May 1995 when it was changed to once every month, but were later on changed to once every two months since February 1998. It has remained unchanged since then.
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Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to June 2000, the sample size of "people's confidence in HK's future / "one country, two systems" survey was set at slightly over 500, while starting from May 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's confidence in China's future, since July 2001, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.
The above findings have all been published regularly on-line via our HKU POP Site, while all the previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded in various formats.
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