HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,037 Hong Kong people between 18-20 February by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that compared to early February, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have slightly dropped, but the popularity of the SAR Government has changed very little compared to a month ago. According to Robert Chung, Director of POP, the Budget soon to be released by the government would probably be an important factor affecting the development of the government's popularity. The sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures is +/-1.2 marks. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,037 successful interviews, not 1,037 x 66.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is below +/-2 to 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.2 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level". 
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Recent popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 63.3 marks, and 56% supported him as the Chief Executive while 19% held an opposite view. As for people's satisfaction with Donald Tsang's policy direction, 47% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 13% were not satisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 49% were satisfied, whereas 14% were dissatisfied.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on October 10, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from October 10, 2007 while this survey was conducted from February 18 to 20, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to early February, both the support rating and approval rate of CE Donald Tsang have slightly dropped. Since December last year, Donald Tsang's approval rate has fluctuated slightly below 60%, while his disapproval rate remains stable at about 20%. As for the popularity of the SAR Government, there is very little change compared to a month ago. As for the events affecting public opinion, readers can make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'. However, the Budget soon to be released by the government would probably be an important factor affecting the development of the government's popularity."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 28, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the results of Budget instant survey will be released. Then on February 29, Friday and March 3, Monday, between 1pm and 2pm, we will release the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups and the results of the second round of Budget survey, respectively. And on March 4, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, we will release the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". 

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of CE and the HKSAR Government

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's appraisal of the top leader and overall satisfaction with the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31 and November 28, 2006, January 30, March 6 as well as August 28, 2007. Today, we post it, so that readers can refresh such development.

(1) Development of CE's popularity survey

• From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, POP has continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity rating of Governor Chris Patten. After the handover when Tung Chee-hwa became the first Chief Executive in 1997, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang succeeded, POP has begun to measure Tsang's popularity. The frequency of our surveys was at least once every month during the Patten era. It was then increased to three times per month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards, it was reduced to twice every month.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "popularity of Governor or CE" survey are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Governor/ the Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive XXX?" and "If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for XXX?".

(2) Development of people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction

• HKUPOP was established in 1991, we began to record people's satisfaction of Governor Chris Patten's policy address ever since he gave his first one in October 1992. The question used then was: "On the whole, how satisfied are you with XXX's policy address?" We used this question up to September 2002, shortly before Tung Chee-hwa delivered his first policy address of his second session. Meanwhile, POP continued to develop other indicators of policy satisfaction, including "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" since July 1997, "hypothetical voting on XXX as the CE" and "people's appraisal of CE's job performance", both since February 2002. Our frequent CE rating exercise continues, and Donald Tsang's becoming the CE did not change our operation. Our effort to search and test for the best method to study people's satisfaction of public policies continues up to this date. The frequency of our "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" survey was at least once every two months during the Tung Chee-hwa era. It was then changed to at least once every six months since Donald Tsang became CE.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "people's satisfaction with CE's policy direction" survey are: "Are you satisfied with XXX's policy direction?".

(3) Development of people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government survey

• The survey on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government was started in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month.
  
  

• The question wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

Before April 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was increased to at least 1,000. The above surveys are of no exception. All the above findings are now released on POP Site on a regular basis. Previous findings published in our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded online in various formats.

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Chief Executive/Popularity of HKSAR Government) |