HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on subjective social and rule of law indicatorsBack

Press Release on February 19, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,028 Hong Kong people between 12-14 February, 2008 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that most of our 12 subjective social indicators have gone up over the past 6 months to reach all-time high over the past 10 years. However, the reading of 'rule of law' has plunged sharply, apparently somewhat related to the recent popularity plunge of CJ Wong Yan-lung. Moreover, the readings of 'social welfare' and 'fairness' have also dropped significantly, and should be noted with care. The sampling error of all percentages is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures is below +/-1.6 marks. The response rate of the survey is 70%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,028 successful interviews, not 1,028 x 70.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of rating figures is below +/-1.6 marks. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "each sampling error is not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level".
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures on subjective social and rule of law indicators. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of ratings *
12-14/2/2008	1,028	70.2%	+/-1.6

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample errors. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The survey findings are shown as follows:

Date of survey	17-21/2/06	21-23/8/06	22-26/2/07	20-24/8/07	12-14/2/08		Latest Change
Sample base	1,017	1,019	1,014	1,010	1,028		---
Overall response rate	60.9%	57.7%	60.2%	65.2%	70.2%		---
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 0.12	+/- 0.14	+/-0.12	+/-0.12	+/-0.12		---
Sampling error of personal rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.4	+/-1.2	+/-1.6		---
Finding for each question/ Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	---
Degree of freedom	7.52	7.51	7.58	7.61	7.63	+/-0.10	+0.02
Degree of public order	7.22	6.89	7.26	7.37	7.44	+/-0.08	+0.07
Degree of civilization	7.30	7.19	7.26	7.39	7.42	+/-0.10	+0.03
Degree of stability	7.14	6.96	7.19	7.18	7.41	+/-0.10	+0.23
Degree of corruption-free practices	7.08	6.94	7.25	7.29	7.30	+/-0.10	+0.01
Degree of prosperity	6.94	6.80	7.02	7.06	7.28	+/-0.10	+0.22
Degree of efficiency	6.83	6.79	6.89	7.08	7.08	+/-0.12	--
Compliance with the rule of law	6.89	6.74	7.00	7.07	6.69	+/-0.12	-0.38
Degree of equality	6.33	6.19	6.32	6.30	6.34	+/-0.12	+0.04
Degree of democracy	6.29	6.20	6.08	6.25	6.25	+/-0.12	--
Degree of social welfare sufficiency	6.34	6.28	6.40	6.42	6.12	+/-0.12	-0.30
Degree of fairness	6.09	5.93	5.95	6.01	5.71	+/-0.12	-0.30
Impartiality of the courts	6.90	7.01	7.07	7.03	6.82	+/-0.12	-0.21
Compliance with the rule of law (repeated listing)	6.89	6.74	7.00	7.07	6.69	+/-0.12	-0.38
Fairness of the judicial system	6.66	6.72	6.85	6.90	6.64	+/-0.10	-0.26
Support rating of Andrew Li	62.2	60.9	60.5	63.8	61.1	+/-1.6	-2.7

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state that "sampling errors are not more than +/-0.12 at 95% confidence level" when citing the indicators, and that "sampling error is not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when citing Andrew Li's rating.

Regarding the social indicators, results obtained in mid-February showed that, on a scale of 0-10, Hong Kong's degree of "freedom" scored the highest rating with 7.63 marks. "Public order", "civilization" and "stability" followed behind, with respective scores of 7.44, 7.42 and 7.41 marks. "Corruption-free practices", "prosperity" and "efficiency" formed the next tier, scoring 7.30, 7.28 and 7.08 marks respectively. Meanwhile, the ratings of "compliance with the rule of law", "equality", "democracy" and "social welfare sufficiency" were 6.69, 6.34, 6.25 and 6.12 marks correspondingly. Last of all, "fairness" scored 5.71 marks.

As for the 2 rule of law sub-indicators, the impartiality of the courts scored 6.82 marks, while the rating of the fairness of the judicial system was 6.64 marks. Meanwhile, the latest popularity rating of Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang, a representative figure of the judicial system, was 61.1 marks, on a scale of 0-100.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on August 20, 2007, because the previous survey was conducted from August 20 to 24, 2007 while this survey was conducted from February 12 to 14, 2008. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

11/2/08	1) Gillian Chung Yan-tung makes her first public response to the recent scandal of the publication of nude pictures. 2) Hang Seng Index falls 853 points in the first trading day of Chinese New Year
9/2/08	New nude photoraphs, purportedly of local artists, are released on internet
8/2/08	1) Firework display over Victoria Harbour is to celebrate Chinese New Year 2) The lucky fortune stick drawn for Hong Kong bodes well for the Year of the Rat
7/2/08	Newspapers follow the case of posting obscene photos, purportedly of local artists, onto the internet
6/2/08	1) 200 more nude photographs, purportedly of local artists, are released via email, adding 3 more victims 2) Different newspapers discuss HK's development in the upcoming year
5/2/08	1) Ching Cheong is released on parole 2) 6 new nude photographs, purportedly of local artists, are posted on the internet
4/2/08	Edison Chen apologizes to those affected by the posting of nude photographs
3/2/08	1) One more suspect arrested in connection with the internet posting of nude photographs, purportedly of local artists after the police raiding a computer shop in Central 2) Newspapers follow and discuss the snowstorm in Mainland
2/2/08	4 men and 2 women arrested on suspicion of internet displays of nude photographs, purportedly of local artists
1/2/08	Various local organizations give hands in relief work for Mainland's persistent snowstorm
27/1/08	Food supply to HK is also affected as chaos caused by heavy snow continues in Mainland.
25/1/08	36 deputies are elected to represent HK in the National People's Congress
23/1/08	Responding to Fed's rate-cut, local banks reduce interest-rate by 0.75%
22/1/08	US cuts interest rates by 0.75% to stop global finanical crisis
21/1/08	Global stock markets in crisis, Hang Seng Index falls 1,383 points, or 5.5%
19/1/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will deliver his first finanical budget at the end of February.
16/1/08	HK stocks join a global market rout, Hang Seng Index plunged 1,386 points or 5.37%
7/1/08	HK Gov't reaches agreement with CLP Power and HK Electric to reduce their permitted rate of return to 9.99%
6/1/08	A 52-year-old man is in a critical condition after receiving contaminated blood at Tuen Mun Hospital
5/1/08	A local restaurant owner bids HK$430,000 for the biggest tuna at the Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo
4/1/08	The Western Harbour Tunnel announces the end of fare concessions, which will increase the tolls by about 15%
31/12/07	More than 450,000 revellers pack on both sides of the harbour for countdown to greet 2008
30/12/07	The decision made by NPC regarding the introduction of universal suffrage for CE and Legco in HK becomes a controversial issue.
29/12/07	National People's Congress to rule out universal suffrage for the election of the chief executive and all legislators in 2012
25/12/07	10,000 people take a ride on the Ngong Ping 360 cable car on Christmas day to test the new system's ability to handle heavy crowds
22/12/07	Ngong Ping 360 cable car is relaunched for trial-run successfully after stopped service for half year
21/12/07	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will raise tariffs by 4.5 and 6 percent, respectively, from New Years Day.
20/12/07	The NPC Standing Committee will soon discuss the consultation report on HK constitutional reform submitted by Donald Tsang
17/12/07	Hang Seng Index plunges about 1,000 points to close at 26,597
16/12/07	A newly qualified driver dies in car accident after hitting a lamppost
15/12/07	2 dead and 17 injuried in a bus crash in Tseung Kwan O
12/12/07	CE submits a report on political reform to Central Gov't
5/12/07	Tsang Tak-sing criticizes Anson Chan for being "sudden democrat" and her "sudden support for livelihood"
3/12/07	Many newspapers follow and discuss the result of LC by-election
2/12/07	Anson Chan wins the Legco by-election
1/12/07	1) Legco by-election on HK island will be held tomorrow 2) MTR and Kowloon-Canton Railway corporations officially merges
28/11/07	HK Tourism Board is criticized for ineffective administration and overspending in the latest report by Audit Commission.
27/11/07	1) Kowloon Motor Bus will offer octopus card discount for fares on 21 interchange routes. 2) Four transplant patients mistakenly received organs donated from a man later found to have lung cancer in Queen Elizabeth Hospital.
23/11/07	CE Donald Tsang makes his first duty visit to Central Government since re-election.
22/11/07	MTR sets out fare cuts up to 35% for 2.8 million rail commuters once the merger takes into effect next month.
19/11/07	1) The Democrats suffers from its biggest DC election setback in 10 years with only 106 seats 2) Premier Wen Jiabao disagrees with Shenzhen banks' recent move to impose a limit on withdrawals
18/11/07	A record of 1.4 million voters cast their ballots in the third-term District Council Election today
17/11/07	District Council Election will be held tomorrow to elect 364 district councilors
15/11/07	High Court rules that Swire Properties can continue its plan to build a 54-storey residential complex on Seymour Road
12/11/07	The Securities and Futures Commission takes over Great Honest Investment Company to stop its unauthorized dealings and irregularities with clients' accounts
9/11/07	Local banks announce to cut rates by 25 basis points again
8/11/07	The Hong Kong Exchange Fund has earned HK$114.6 billion in investment income for the first nine months
6/11/07	Alibaba.com increased 192 percent to close at HK$39.5 on its first trading day
5/11/07	The Hang Seng Index plunges 1,526 points, the largest one-day points drop in its history
3/11/07	Premier Wen Jiabao states that the "through-train" investment scheme is put on hold.
2/11/07	Govt launches a 5-month consultation on a proposal to ban drivers from leaving engines idling while parked
1/11/07	Hong Kong banks cut interest rate by 0.25% following Fed's move in U.S.
31/10/07	The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sells HK$7.8 billion Hong Kong dollars to purchase US dollars for five times
26/10/07	The surging Hang Seng Index closes above 30,000 for the first time
25/10/07	Martin Lee criticized for urging other countries to use next year's Olympics to press for human rights improvements in China
23/10/07	Government subsidizes MTR $6 billion to build West Island Line.
19/10/07	The assistant director in public affairs television division Cheung Man-sun is arrested for alleged drink driving.
18/10/07	Hang Seng Index breaches the 30,000-point level for the first time
17/10/07	The government furthers its plans for political appointees to the administration
14/10/07	Mother leaps to her death after children thrown from 24th floor in Tin Shui Wai
13/10/07	1) CE Donald Tsang apologizes for equating democracy with Cultural Revolution 2) Finanical Secretary plans for tax cuts
10/10/07	CE Donald Tsang releases his Policy Address entitled "A New Direction for Hong Kong"
9/10/07	Green light for rail merger
2/10/07	Hang Seng Index soars, reaching over 28,000 points
27/9/07	Regina Ip formally announces her candidacy in LegCo by-election for HK Island
19/9/07	Hang Seng index soared through the 25,500-point mark
18/9/07	Government discloses investigation report on the accident of Ngong Ping 360 cable car
17/9/07	Government suspends poultry imports from Guangdong
14/9/07	The government declares King Yin Lei mansion as a proposed monument
12/9/07	The government announces a new proposal for the West Kowloon Cultural District
11/9/07	Anson Chan formally announces her candidacy in LegCo by-election for HK Island
10/9/07	Acquisition of HKEx by HK Government causes rapid increase in HKEx's price, yet draws different opinion
8/9/07	Ocean Park increases ticket prices in October by 10%
28/8/07	The Venetian Macao hotel-casino opens and brings competition to HK's exhibition industry
27/8/07	HK stock market scores record high as affected by the "foreign stocks investment for individuals" scheme to be implemented shortly.
24/8/07	The Hospital Authority and Prince of Wales Hospital disclose investigation report on a medical blunder that killed a young woman
22/8/07	Beef supplier Ng Fung Hong raises wholesale price again by 15%.
21/8/07	China's trial scheme on "foreign stocks investment for individuals" will be implemented in this month.
20/8/07	New trial scheme from Central Government boosts Hong Kong stocks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest finding shows that most of our 12 subjective social indicators have gone up over the past 6 months. Although most changes are within sampling errors, their accumulative readings have reached all-time high over the past 10 years. These include 'freedom', 'public order', 'civilization', 'stability', 'corruption-free' and 'prosperity'. However, it should be noted that the reading of 'rule of law' has plunged sharply, apparently somewhat related to the recent popularity plunge of CJ Wong Yan-lung. Moreover, the readings of 'social welfare' and 'fairness' have also dropped significantly, and should be noted with care. Because numerous events have happened in the past 6 months, and because of the wide scope of social indicators, readers can make use of our detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily' to decide what factors are affecting the ups and downs of these indicators."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 26, 2008, Tuesday, between 1 pm and 2 pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Subjective social and rule of law indicators

Social indicator survey is a common way to monitor and measure a society's development. HKUPOP first conducted such surveys around the handover of Hong Kong in 1997, in order to monitor the new development of Hong Kong society. We explained the development of such surveys in our press release dated on September 5, 2006, March 8 and September 4, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development. In our research domain, "social indicators" comprises 12 main indicators, namely, "democracy", "freedom, "prosperity", "stability", "fairness", "civilization", "corruption-free", "equality", "efficiency", "social welfare", "public order" and "rule of law", and 2 sets of "freedom sub-indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators". The first set comprises "freedom of speech", "freedom of press", "freedom of publication", "freedom of procession and demonstration", "freedom of association", "freedom to strike", "freedom to enter or leave Hong Kong", "freedom to engage in academic research", "freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation" and "freedom of religious belief", while the latter set comprises "fairness of the judicial system" and "impartiality of the courts". Herewith the details of our "social indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys:

Between June and November 1997, our surveys of social and rule of law indicators were conducted once every month. It was then changed to once every two months, until it was changed again to once every three months beginning from July 2000. Starting from October 2005, its frequency was gradually changed to once every six months, in order to match society's development.
For the "social indicators" and "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "If you were to use 0-10 to evaluate whether Hong Kong is a such and such society, with 10 indicating absolutely such and such, 0 indicating absolutely not such and such, 5 indicating half-half, how would you rate Hong Kong?" During our "rule of law sub-indicators" surveys, we also include one additional question on the rating of the Chief Justice, wordings being "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Justice Andrew Li Kwok-nang?"
Regarding sample size, between July 1997 and March 2000, the sample size of all surveys was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
The findings of our early social and rule of law indicators conducted between June 1997 and June 1998 were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, such findings were released on-line starting from January and July 2002 respectively, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.