HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top Five Executive Council Non-Official MembersBack

Press Release on January 29, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of non-official Executive Councillors this month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that Anthony Cheung has become the most popular Councillor after making his way to the 'top five' list for the first time. The rating of Selina Chow, who used to have high recognition rates, has dropped significantly. All in all, the ratings of people's most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have dropped compared to three months ago. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.4 and 1.8 while the response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 66.7% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 67.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest ratings of the Top 5 members of Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
16-18/1/08 （First stage naming survey）	1,022	66.7%	+/- 3%
23-28/1/08 （Second stage rating survey）	1,019	67.4%	+/- 1.8

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Jasper Tsang, Selina Chow, Bernard Chan, Anthony Cheung, David Li, Ronald Arculli, Cheng Yiu-tong, Laura Cha and Fan Hung-ling were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-January, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-6/2/07	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07	23-28/1/08			Latest change
Sample base	1,020	1,005	1,013	1,009	1,019			--
Overall response rate	62.5%	63.3%	63.8%	66.3%	67.4%			--
Maximum sampling error of rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.8			--
Finding / Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	Recognition rate
Anthony Cheung	--	--	57.5 [**]	57.7 [**]	56.4 [1]	+/-1.6	53.5%	-1.3
Selina Chow	56.4 [2]	58.7 [2]	60.4 [2]	59.1 [2]	53.0 [2]	+/-1.4	88.3%	-6.1
David Li	55.7 [3]	54.9 [3]	53.3 [5]	--	52.8 [3]	+/-1.4	80.4%	--
Leung Chun-ying	49.1 [5]	52.5 [4]	54.6 [3]	54.1 [3]	49.6 [4]	+/-1.8	75.3%	-4.5
Jasper Tsang	49.4 [4]	51.8 [5]	54.4 [4]	50.7 [5]	48.7 [5]	+/-1.6	82.9%	-2.0
Bernard Chan	56.6 [**]	57.2 [**]	--	--	53.9 []**	+/-1.8	50.1%	--
Ronald Arculli	58.7 [1]	60.1 [1]	--	62.5 [1]	--	--	--	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	--	--	55.8 [**]	51.0 [4]	--	--	--	--
Rafael Hui	--	--	61.7 [1]	--	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in late-January showed that Anthony Cheung was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 56.4 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 53.0 marks. The 3rd rank went to David Li with 52.8 marks. Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang occupied the 4th and 5th ranks, with 49.6 and 48.7 marks correspondingly. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 52.1 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained support ratings of 53.9 marks respectively, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07	23-28/1/08	No. of times on top 5	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Selina Chow	58.7	60.4	59.1	53.0	4	57.8	1
Leung Chun-ying	52.5	54.6	54.1	49.6	4	52.7	2
Jasper Tsang	51.8	54.4	50.7	48.7	4	51.4	3
David Li	54.9	53.3	^	52.8	3	53.7	4
Ronald Arculli	60.1	^	62.5	^	2	61.3	5
Rafael Hui	^	61.7	^	^	1	61.7	6
Anthony Cheung	^	^	^	56.4	1	56.4	7
Cheng Yiu-tong	^	^	51.0	^	1	51.0	8

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Executive Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.8 marks, Leung Chun-ying who ranked 2nd and attained 52.7 marks, Jasper Tsang who ranked 3rd with 51.4 marks. David Li has been on the list for three times with 53.7 marks and occupied the 4th place while Ronald Arculli has been on the list for two times with 61.3 marks and ranked 5th. Three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list once. They were Rafael Hui, Anthony Cheung and Cheng Yiu-tong who ranked 6th to 8th with 61.7, 56.4 and 51.0 marks respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from November 5 to 9, 2007 while this survey was conducted from January 23 to 28, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

27/1/08	Food supply to HK is also affected as chaos caused by heavy snow continues in Mainland
21/1/08	Global stock markets in crisis, Hang Seng Index falls 1,383 points, or 5.5%
19/1/08	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will deliver his first financial budget at the end of February.
16/1/08	HK stocks join a global market rout, Hang Seng Index plunged 1,386 points or 5.37%
7/1/08	HK Gov't reaches agreement with CLP Power and HK Electric to reduce their permitted rate of return to 9.99%
4/1/08	The Western Harbour Tunnel announces the end of fare concessions, which will increase the tolls by about 15%
30/12/07	The decision made by NPC regarding the introduction of universal suffrage for CE and Legco in HK becomes a controversial issue.
29/12/07	National People's Congress to rule out universal suffrage for the election of the chief executive and all legislators in 2012
25/12/07	10,000 people take a ride on the Ngong Ping 360 cable car on Christmas day to test the new system's ability to handle heavy crowds
22/12/07	Ngong Ping 360 cable car is relaunched for trial-run successfully after stopped service for half year
21/12/07	CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will raise tariffs by 4.5 and 6 percent, respectively, from New Years Day.
20/12/07	The NPC Standing Committee will soon discuss the consultation report on HK constitutional reform submitted by Donald Tsang
12/12/07	CE submits a report on political reform to Central Gov't
1/12/07	MTR and Kowloon-Canton Railway corporations officially merges
23/11/07	CE Donald Tsang makes his first duty visit to Central Government since re-election.
22/11/07	MTR sets out fare cuts up to 35% for 2.8 million rail commuters once the merger takes into effect next month.
15/11/07	High Court rules that Swire Properties can continue its plan to build a 54-storey residential complex on Seymour Road

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, there are a number of major changes in the popularity ratings of people's five most familiar non-official Executive Councillors. First, Anthony Cheung makes it to the 'top five' for the first time, after passing the recognition benchmark. He also tops the list with the highest support rating. Second, the rating of Selina Chow, who used to have high recognition rates, has dropped significantly, probably due to the hearings on the accounts of the Hong Kong Tourism Board. Third, David Li who used to have marginal recognition rate has come back to the list, while Ronald Arculli and Cheng Yiu-tong dropped out of the list. All in all, the ratings of people's most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have dropped compared to three months ago. It should be noted, however, that our list of 'top five' only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. Since next week is the Chinese New Year holiday, our next release of regular survey findings is re-scheduled to February 12, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of Top 5 members of Executive Council

The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on November 21, 2006, February 13, May 22, August 6 as well as November 20, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey once every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 month until May 2002.
From August 2002 to February 2005, it was conducted once every 6 months. HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"
Meanwhile, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as a non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under the accountability system), their ratings were conducted even more frequently.
In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. In July 2007, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official member to 16 by adding one more member. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming stage and one rating stage, and its current cycle is once every 3 months.
Regarding sample size, from the beginning up to now, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 1,000. All the findings are released on POP Site.