HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on January 24, 2008

Abstract

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong conducted a double stage survey on the ranking of Legislative Councillors this month, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The surveys find that the popularity ratings of Legco members have all dropped, except James Tien and new member Anson Chan. Among them, Selina Chow, Albert Ho and Emily Lau registered the biggest drop. Albert Ho re-entered the list this time after passing the recognition benchmark, but Alan Leong and Audrey Eu who occupied the second and third place last time both dropped out of the list due to relatively low recognition rate. The relative rankings of 'Top 10' councillors have changed significantly after the Legislative Council by-election. The sampling errors of the ratings registered fall between +/-1.0 and 1.8 while the response rate of the rating survey is 67%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,025 successful interviews, not 1,025 x 67.2% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the rating figures. In view of the error margins, one decimal place can be used when quoting these rating figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of the Top 10 Legislative Councillors. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
9-11/1/08 （First stage naming survey）	1,025	67.2%	+/- 3%
16-18/1/08 （Second stage rating survey）	1,022	66.7%	+/- 1.8

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-January. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Anson Chan, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau and Rita Fan were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-January, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	22-26/1/07	17-20/4/07	23-26/7/07	22-25/10/07	16-18/1/08		Latest change
Sample base	1,020	1,011	1,007	1,016	1,022		--
Overall response rate	62.5%	62.7%	64.9%	67.4%	66.7%		--
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.8		--
Finding for each question/Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Rita Fan	63.8 [1]	69.2 [1]	68.2 [1]	67.9 [1]	65.5 [1]	+/-1.0	-2.4
James Tien	54.3 [4]	55.8 [5]	55.5 [5]	55.3 [5]	55.3 [2]	+/-1.0	--
Anson Chan	--	--	--	--	55.1 [3]	+/-1.4	--
Selina Chow	57.2 [3]	58.0 [4]	59.3 [3]	58.7 [4]	52.6 [4]	+/-1.2	-6.1
Lee Cheuk-yan	51.1 [6]	55.7 [6]	56.1 [4]	55.1 [6]	52.4 [5]	+/-1.4	-2.7
Albert Ho	52.7 [5]	54.8 [7]	54.8 [6]	56.4 [**]	50.9 [6]	+/-1.4	-5.5
Jasper Tsang	50.9 [7]	--	50.5 [7]	52.9 [7]	49.7 [7]	+/-1.4	-3.2
Martin Lee	48.6 [8]	51.0 [8]	49.1 [9]	49.7 [9]	45.8 [8]	+/-1.8	-3.9
Emily Lau	48.1 [9]	49.4 [9]	49.6 [8]	50.3 [8]	45.5 [9]	+/-1.6	-4.8
Leung Kwok-hung	34.0 [10]	30.5 [10]	33.7 [10]	33.6 [10]	30.2 [10]	+/-1.6	-3.4
Audrey Eu	59.0 [2]	61.1 [2]	59.7 [**]	59.7 [3]	58.9 []**	+/-1.4	-0.8
Tam Yiu-chung	--	--	--	55.0 [**]	53.7 []**	+/-1.4	-1.3
Alan Leong	58.9 [**]	59.5 [3]	60.2 [2]	60.2 [2]	--	--	--
Yeung Sum	--	53.5 [**]	54.3 [**]	--	--	--	--
Chan Yuen-han	60.3 [**]	60.9 [**]	--	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in mid-January showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 65.5 marks. The 2nd and 3rd ranks went to James Tien and Anson Chan with respective scores of 55.3 and 55.1 marks. Selina Chow, Lee Cheuk-yan and Albert Ho occupied the 4th to 6th ranks, with 52.6, 52.4 and 50.9 marks correspondingly. Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Emily Lau ranked 7th to 9th, scoring 49.7, 45.8 and 45.5 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 30.2 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 56.2 marks, while that for the top 10 was 50.3 marks. For this latest survey, Audrey Eu and Tam Yiu-chung obtained support ratings of 58.9 and 53.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	17-20/4/07	23-26/7/07	22-25/10/07	16-18/1/08	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Rita Fan	69.2	68.2	67.9	65.5	4	67.7	1
Selina Chow	58.0	59.3	58.7	52.6	4	57.1	2
James Tien	55.8	55.5	55.3	55.3	4	55.5	3
Lee Cheuk-yan	55.7	56.1	55.1	52.4	4	54.8	4
Martin Lee	51.0	49.1	49.7	45.8	4	48.9	5
Emily Lau	49.4	49.6	50.3	45.5	4	48.7	6
Leung Kwok-hung	30.5	33.7	33.6	30.2	4	32.0	7
Alan Leong	59.5	60.2	60.2	--	3	60.0	8
Albert Ho	54.8	54.8	--	50.9	3	53.5	9
Jasper Tsang	--	50.5	52.9	49.7	3	51.0	10
Audrey Eu	61.1	--	59.7	--	2	60.4	11
Anson Chan	--	--	--	55.1	1	55.1	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that seven Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 67.7 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd with 57.1 marks, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan at 3rd and 4th ranks attaining 55.5 and 54.8 marks, Martin Lee and Emily Lau who ranked 5th and 6th with respective scores of 48.9 and 48.7 marks, and Leung Kwok-hung at the 7th rank attaining 32.0 marks. Alan Leong, Albert Ho and Jasper Tsang ranked 8th to 10th ranks with respective scores of 60.0, 53.5 and 51.0 marks and they were all listed for three times. Audrey Eu who was on list for twice ranked 11th with 60.4 marks while Anson Chan was listed for the first time.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from October 22 to 25, 2007 while this survey was conducted from January 16 to 18, 2008. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

5/12/07	Tsang Tak-sing criticizes Anson Chan for being "sudden democrat" and her "sudden support for livelihood"
3/12/07	Many newspapers follow and discuss the result of LC by-election
2/12/07	Anson Chan wins the Legco by-election
1/12/07	Legco by-election on HK island will be held tomorrow
25/10/07	Martin Lee criticized for urging other countries to use next year's Olympics to press for human rights improvements in China

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of Legco members on our top 10 list have all dropped, except James Tien and the newly elected councillor Anson Chan. Among them, Selina Chow, Albert Ho and Emily Lau registered the biggest drop. Albert Ho re-entered the list this time after passing the recognition benchmark, but Alan Leong and Audrey Eu who occupied the second and third place last time both dropped out of the list due to relatively low recognition rate. The relative rankings of councillors in our 'Top 10' list have therefore changed significantly after the Legislative Council by-election. It should be noted, however, that our list of top 10 only includes Legislative Councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these popularity ratings, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'.

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 29, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive Council will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

Ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors survey

The Legislative Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Legislative Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since 1992. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press release of November 2, 2006, February 6, May 2, August 7 as well as November 1, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development:

Starting from October 1992, the surveys are conducted once every three months, without any change.
Our research design comprises separate naming and rating surveys in two stages. In the naming stage, in between 1992 and 1993, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "Please name up to 5 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." From 1994 onwards, the wordings used in the questionnaire become "Please name up to 10 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." In the rating stage, since the beginning, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?"
Regarding sample size, from the beginning to March 2000, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.
Our first findings of our political group surveys were published in the East Week, which was a magazine on political and economic affairs then. We later published our findings by fax. Then in 1996, HKUPOP published our newsletter POP Express, which naturally carried our findings on this topic. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, we switched to an on-line mode of release since then, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.