HKU POP SITE releases latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditionsBack

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |

The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 19-24 December, 2007 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that people are relatively less satisfied with the current political condition, their optimism in economic development has significantly dropped compared to 6 months ago, and they are expecting a slow-down in Hong Kong's development in the next 3 years. The sampling error of the survey is below +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:

* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* Since the figures in this release come from the last tracking survey conducted by HKUPOP in 2007, and the survey items are repeated once every six months, these half-yearly figures are also good for general reviews of Hong Kong's development. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more accurate to analyze general changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The maximum standard sampling error of this survey is +/-1.6 percentage points, meaning that at 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be +/-3.2 percentage points, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of ratings +/-0.14, sampling error below +/-3% at 95% confidence level". 
* When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people's appraisal of society's current conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey: 

Recent figures of people's appraisal of society's current conditions are summarized as follows: 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

The survey conducted in late-December, 2007 showed that 53% of the respondents were most concerned with social problems, 40% with economic problems, while 6% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people's concern over social, economic and political problems were 7.34, 7.29 and 5.82 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions were 55%, 53% and 37% in respective order. Regarding people's appraisal of Hong Kong's development, 73%, 59% and 49% respectively considered our economic, social and political conditions have improved in the last 3 years, while 40%, 39% and 37% respectively believed they would become better in 3 years' time.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of 「Opinion Daily」 will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the 「Opinion Daily」 feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 15 to 21, 2007 while this survey was conducted from December 19 to 24, 2007. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our survey conducted at the end of last year, whether in terms of absolute ratings or relative percentages, people are still most concerned with social problems, then economic and political problems. However, their degree of concern for economic problems has significantly increased over the past six months. In terms of satisfaction level, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, social and political conditions are all similar to those six months ago, but they are relatively less satisfied with the current political condition. Looking ahead, nearly 40% believed that Hong Kong's economic, social and political conditions would become better three years from now. Such figures are significantly lower than those registered six months ago, especially the 10 percentage-point drop in people's optimism in the economic domain. Moreover, it should be noted that across all three areas, those who expect things to get better in 3 years' time are much less than those who said things have improved over the past 3 years, meaning that people are expecting a slow-down in Hong Kong's development in the next 3 years. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such changes using detailed records shown in our "Opinion Daily" feature page."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 15, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest results of subjective freedom indicators will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Mapping people's appraisal of society's current conditions

People's appraisal of their society's current condition is always an important indicator of a society's development. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct regular surveys on people's appraisal of Hong Kong society's current conditions. The surveys not only investigate the problem people are most concerned with, but also include people's satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal, expectation and level of concern for the above three aspects. We have explained the survey development in our press release of January 9, 2007 and July 12. Today, we post it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

• Since December 1992, HKU POP began our regular surveys on "people's appraisal of society's current conditions". The questions in the initial surveys covered people's most concerned problem, their satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions as well as their appraisal and expectation. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Hong Kong is currently facing various problems. What kind of problems are you most concerned with?", "Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong?", "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong has become better or worse in the last three years?" and "Do you think the political/economic/social condition in Hong Kong will become better or worse in three years' time?"
  
  

• In 2005, under people's most concerned problem, we added questions on people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please use a scale of 0-10 to rate your level of concern for the political/economic/social problems in Hong Kong, with 10 indicating extremely concerned, 5 being half-half and 0 indicating extremely not concerned."
  
  

• Regarding the frequency, "people's most concerned problem" and "satisfaction with the current political, economic and social conditions" were first surveyed once every two months. Their frequencies were changed to once every three months since December 2000 and then to once every six months since June 2006. For the "appraisal and expectation on the political, economic and social conditions", the frequency of this sub-indicator survey was changed from once every two months at the beginning to once every three months since February 1997. From February 1998 onwards, it is reviewed once every half a year. When it comes to "people's level of concern for political, economic and social problems", it was first surveyed once every three months since March 2005. Starting from June 2006, it is examined once every six months to cope with the changing social conditions.
  
  

• Regarding the sample size, on or before April 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since June 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000.
  
  

• The findings from our "people's appraisal of society's current conditions" surveys conducted by 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.
  

| Abstract | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Appraisal of Society's Current Conditions) |