The Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 19-24 December by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey finds that given a free choice, 42% of Hong Kong people would make a new year wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, 35% would make a wish on their own personal development, mainly for health. Programme Director Robert Chung considers this a postivie reflection of people's social awareness. Although new year wishes is a light topic, there are also academic values in it. Had the survey concentrated on birthday rather than new year wishes, the results might have been entirely different. The sample error of the survey is +/-3 percentage points, response rate being 66%.
Points to note:
* The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
* When quoting figures of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting the decimal places, because sampling errors do not entail that kind of precision.
* The sample size of this survey is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 66.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
* The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflate its IVS operation, this is unprofessional.
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Findings showed that, with respect to people's new year wishes, in terms of general classification, 42% were society-related, 35% were related to personal development, another 11% did not make any wish. In terms of narrow classification, 24% were social economy-related, 8% were related to social livelihood, 15% were related to personal health, 12% were related to personal career or studies, and 4% were related to personal family.
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In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at
the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling
figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate
information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and
downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to
operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity
figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it
contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures
registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9
different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief
Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the
accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will
continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers
supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that
day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would
be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified
by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a
list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that
readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on
the ups and downs of the polling figures. Yet, this press release is an
exception. It is because for the polling items covered in this press release,
the previous survey was conducted from December 18 to 20, 2006 while this survey
was conducted from December 19 to 24, 2007. The two surveys were one year apart,
and any of the significant events inside "Opinion Daily" in between might
have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this press release
would not further select the events from "Opinion Daily", but readers can
make their own judgment based on the detailed records in the respective online
section.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Although new year wishes looks like a very light topic, there are also academic values in studying them. In our surveys, asking people with an open-ended question or close-ended multiple choice question yields very different results. In the survey we release today, we use a completely open-ended question. Given such a free choice, more than 40% of Hong Kong people would make a new year wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy, only 35% would make a wish on their own personal development, especially for health. This shows Hong Kong people has a good sense of social awareness. Of course, if we were to survey birthday wishes rather than new year wishes, the results might have been entirely different."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release our survey result on January 4, 2008, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the PLA Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force will be released. Then on January 8, 2008, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP Site will release the latest figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our press release a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Year-end review and forecast surveys
It is a common practice that at the end of a year, people would like to look back at their achievement in the year past, and then look forward to what would happen in the year to come. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we began to conduct year-end surveys. Besides mapping people's general appraisal of the year past, we also ask people for their expectations on, and forecast of, their own development in the year ahead, as well as that of the society and that of the government. We have explained the development of the survey in our press releases of December 29, 2006 and December 31, 2007. Today we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.
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In December 1992, we began to conduct year-end surveys. At first, we only asked questions on people's forecast of society's development in the year ahead, and their expectations on government policies. From the second year onwards, we gradually expanded our survey to cover people's expectation of their own development, their expectation of society's development, and their general satisfaction with development in the year past.
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The questionnaire we now use comprises 7 opinion questions, namely: "In general, are you satisfied with the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx?", "Do you think the development of Hong Kong in the year xxxx +1 will be better or worse?", "What do you think is the most important problem that the HKSAR government should tackle in the year xxxx +1?", "What kind of society would you most like Hong Kong to become: a prosperous, free, fair, welfare or corruption-free society?", "Were you happy in the year xxxx?", "Do you have any new year wish?" and "Do you think your personal development will become better or worse in the year xxxx +1?".
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Regarding sample size, before 2000, the sample size of surveys was set at slightly over 500. Since 2000, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.
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The findings from our "year-end review and forecast surveys" conducted on or before 2000 were released through our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established, the findings are released online, while all previous findings published in our POP Express have also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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