Press Release on December 13, 2007
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| Special Announcement | Latest Figures |
Opinion Daily | Commentary
| News about POP | About HKUPOP
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| Detailed Findings (Feeling
towards different governments / Feeling
towards different peoples)
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Special Announcement |
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Sponsored by a number of media organizations, we at the
Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong have already
completed our exit poll on the District Council elections, as well as the
rolling and exit polls on the Legislative Council by-election for the Hong
Kong Island Geographical Constituency. We will complete our follow-up
polls on the two elections soon, after which we will proceed to upload our
findings onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk)
for public consumption.
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Latest Figures |
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POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the survey findings on Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments. These surveys are basically conducted at least once a year since 1997. The part on people's feeling towards different peoples is also added for the first time in this survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
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Date
of survey |
Overall
sample size |
Response
rate |
Sampling error of
percentages* |
5-9/11/07
(First stage naming survey)
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1,009 |
66.3% |
+/-3% |
3-7/12/2007
(Second stage rating survey) |
1,012 |
68.3% |
+/-3% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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The research design of our survey on "people's feeling towards different governments and peoples" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people's feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people's cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. In the mid-year survey, our survey was divided into two stages, i.e. naming survey and opinion survey. In the year-end survey, we added the part on people's feeling towards different peoples. On specific terms, in our naming survey conducted on November 5-9, other than the Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau and Taiwan, respondents could name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they knew best. United States, United Kingdom, Japan, France and Australia were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage. During that second stage survey conducted on December 3-7, respondents were asked to rate their feelings towards the shortlisted governments and peoples of these regions as either "very positive", "quite positive", "half-half", "quite negative" or "very negative". Recent figures of people's feeling towards different governments and peoples are summarized below. Except the four cross-strait regions, all others are ranked according to people's positive feelings towards different peoples: |
|
Date of survey |
16-25/5/07 |
3-7/12/07 |
Sample base |
1,008 |
1,012 |
Overall response rate |
61.10% |
68.30% |
Maximum sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-4% |
+/-4% |
Items |
Feeling
towards different governments |
Feeling
towards different peoples |
Finding/Sampling error* |
Finding |
Base# |
Finding |
Sampling error |
Latest change^ |
Base# |
Finding |
Sampling error |
Difference with gov'ts' findings |
Hong Kong |
Positive** |
53% |
559 |
47% |
+/-4% |
-6% |
559 |
58% |
+/-4% |
11% |
Negative** |
7% |
559 |
9% |
+/-2% |
2% |
559 |
5% |
+/-2% |
-4% |
Mainland |
Positive** |
44% |
554 |
49% |
+/-4% |
5% |
554 |
39% |
+/-4% |
-10% |
Negative** |
12% |
554 |
12% |
+/-3% |
-- |
554 |
16% |
+/-3% |
-4% |
Taiwan |
Positive** |
5% |
550 |
10% |
+/-3% |
5% |
550 |
40% |
+/-4% |
30% |
Negative** |
59% |
550 |
56% |
+/-4% |
-3% |
550 |
10% |
+/-3% |
-46% |
Macau |
Positive** |
36% |
561 |
44% |
+/-4% |
8% |
561 |
51% |
+/-4% |
7% |
Negative** |
12% |
561 |
14% |
+/-3% |
2% |
561 |
3% |
+/-1% |
-11% |
Singapore |
Positive** |
54% |
556 |
59% |
+/-4% |
5% |
556 |
63% |
+/-4% |
4% |
Negative** |
8% |
556 |
7% |
+/-2% |
-1% |
556 |
3% |
+/-1% |
-4% |
Canada |
Positive** |
48% |
531 |
45% |
+/-4% |
-3% |
531 |
52% |
+/-4% |
7% |
Negative** |
3% |
531 |
4% |
+/-2% |
1% |
531 |
1% |
+/-1% |
-3% |
Australia |
Positive** |
38% |
598 |
46% |
+/-4% |
9% |
598 |
47% |
+/-4% |
+1% |
Negative** |
4% |
598 |
4% |
+/-2% |
-- |
598 |
3% |
+/-1% |
-1% |
Japan |
Positive** |
18% |
564 |
17% |
+/-3% |
-1% |
564 |
46% |
+/-4% |
29% |
Negative** |
39% |
564 |
43% |
+/-4% |
4% |
564 |
12% |
+/-3% |
-31% |
South Korea |
Positive** |
29% |
531 |
39% |
+/-4% |
10% |
531 |
45% |
+/-4% |
6% |
Negative** |
10% |
531 |
11% |
+/-3% |
1% |
531 |
8% |
+/-2% |
-3% |
United
Kingdom |
Positive** |
37% |
527 |
38% |
+/-4% |
1% |
527 |
45% |
+/-4% |
7% |
Negative** |
12% |
527 |
12% |
+/-3% |
-- |
527 |
7% |
+/-2% |
-5% |
USA |
Positive** |
18% |
567 |
16% |
+/-3% |
-2% |
567 |
41% |
+/-4% |
25% |
Negative** |
32% |
567 |
45% |
+/-4% |
13% |
567 |
8% |
+/-2% |
-37% |
Thailand |
Positive** |
22% |
518 |
20% |
+/-4% |
-2% |
518 |
40% |
+/-4% |
20% |
Negative** |
19% |
518 |
29% |
+/-4% |
10% |
518 |
9% |
+/-3% |
-20% |
France |
Positive** |
25% |
547 |
24% |
+/-4% |
-1% |
547 |
32% |
+/-4% |
8% |
Negative** |
6% |
547 |
7% |
+/-2% |
1% |
547 |
7% |
+/-2% |
-- |
Germany |
Positive** |
26% |
531 |
26% |
+/-4% |
-- |
531 |
31% |
+/-4% |
5% |
Negative** |
3% |
531 |
6% |
+/-2% |
3% |
531 |
3% |
+/-1% |
-3% |
Italy |
Positive** |
19% |
596 |
18% |
+/-3% |
-1% |
596 |
28% |
+/-4% |
10% |
Negative** |
5% |
596 |
6% |
+/-2% |
1% |
596 |
4% |
+/-2% |
-2% |
Russia |
Positive** |
11% |
534 |
17% |
+/-3% |
6% |
534 |
26% |
+/-4% |
9% |
Negative** |
22% |
534 |
24% |
+/-4% |
2% |
534 |
7% |
+/-2% |
-17% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
^ comparison made with survey findings of 16-25/5/07. |
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Findings obtained in early December showed that, regarding the results of people's feeling towards different governments, 47% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while 9% felt negative. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR governments were 49%, 10% and 44%, while the corresponding negative figures were 12%, 56% and 14%. As for other governments, the positive figures for Singapore, Australia and Canada were 59%,
46% and 45% respectively, while those for South Korea, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Thailand, Italy, Russia and Japan were 39%, 38%, 26%, 24%, 20%, 18%, 17% and 17% correspondingly. Lastly, only 16% expressed positive feelings towards the government of the United States.
As regards the results of people's feeling towards different peoples, latest survey showed that 58% felt positive towards the HKSAR people while 5% felt negative. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau SAR peoples were 39%, 40% and 51%, while the corresponding negative figures were 16%, 10% and 3%. As for the peoples of other regions and countries, the positive figures for Singapore, Canada and Australia were 63%, 52% and 47% respectively, while those for Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom, the United States, Thailand, France, Germany and Italy were 46%, 45%, 45%, 41%, 40%, 32%, 31% and 28% correspondingly. Lastly, only 26% expressed positive feelings towards the people of Russia. |
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Opinion Daily |
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In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.
In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.
In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.
For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on May 17, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from May 16 to 25, 2007 while this survey was conducted from December 3 to 7, 2007. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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26/11/07 |
China shows the first picture of the moon's surface taken by Chang'e I moon
probe |
24/11/07 |
Labor Party leader Kevin Rudd is elected as new Australian Prime Minister ending John Howard's 11-year
rule |
13/11/07 |
Macau Chief Executive Edmund Ho Hau-wah delivers his policy address of
2008 |
3/11/07 |
Premier Wen Jiabao states that the "through-train" investment scheme is put on
hold. |
1/11/07 |
Hong Kong banks cut interest rate by 0.25% following Fed's move in
U.S. |
25/10/07 |
Martin Lee criticized for urging other countries to use next year's Olympics to press for human rights improvements in
China |
24/10/07 |
China successfully launches its first lunar orbiter |
21/10/07 |
The Communist Party of China elects the new central committee in the 17th national
congress. |
15/10/07 |
Party general secretary, Hu Jintao delivers his policy address in 17th CPC national
congress |
13/10/07 |
CE Donald Tsang apologizes for equating democracy with Cultural Revolution |
17/9/07 |
Government suspends poultry imports from
Guangdong |
6/9/07 |
Hu: This year and next year are a "highly dangerous" period of the Taiwan Strait
situation |
31/8/07 |
Bush and Bernanke outline ways to alleivate subprime problem |
28/8/07 |
The Venetian Macao hotel-casino opens and brings competition to HK's exhibition
industry |
27/8/07 |
HK stock market scores record high as affected by the "foreign stocks investment for individuals" scheme to be implemented
shortly. |
19/8/07 |
HK stocks is expected to recover due to the rebound in US. |
17/8/07 |
The US Federal Reserve cuts the discount window rate and puts brakes on stock slump. |
16/8/07 |
Global stock markets crash due to US subprime crisis, Hong Kong stocks mark two-day slump. |
15/8/07 |
Asian markets were hit by the US subprime crisis |
2/8/07 |
A new express rail linking Hong Kong with Guangzhou via Shenzhen will be built as a dedicated track, reducing the traveling time. |
27/7/07 |
Ripple effect from subprime and weak housing triggers global stock market sell-off; Hang Seng Index plummeted 641 points |
23/7/07 |
China Development Bank has bought stock of Barclays Bank to help fund its takeover bid for ABN Amro. |
20/7/07 |
Government sets measures to end pork supply monopoly. |
19/7/07 |
11.9% China's GDP growth reaches 11.9% |
29/6/07 |
President Hu Jintao visits HK for 3 days. |
6/6/07 |
Wu: Hong Kong's autonomy laid down by Beijing |
17/5/07 |
Li Ka-shing worries on overheating of Mainland stock market |
It can be seen that in terms of events covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper in the form of headline stories in any particular day, there were very few headline stories related to events outside Hong Kong and Mainland China, during the period covered above. This reflects the international horizon of the local media. Exactly how Hong Kong people form their attitude towards different governments and peoples is definitely worth studying.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "We started our survey on Hong Kong people's feeling towards different governments in 1997, in order to study Hong Kong people's international perspective. In our latest survey, we discovered a very significant finding, namely, that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China. For the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feeling towards the people of Taiwan is 30 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, while their dislike of the Taiwan government is 46 percentage points higher that that of the Taiwan people. As for Hong Kong people's feeling towards themselves, their positive feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 11 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong government. Their positive feeling towards the people of Macau is 7 percentage points higher than that of the Macau government. However, their positive feeling towards Mainland Chinese people is 10 percentage points lower than that of the Mainland Chinese government. As for regions and countries beyond the cross-strait region, Hong Kong people's positive feelings towards the people of Japan is 29 percentage points higher than that of the Japanese government; that towards the people of the United States is 25 percentage points higher than that of the American government; that towards the people of Thailand is 20 percentage points higher than that of the Thai government. In terms of absolute percentages, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of Taiwan, the United States, Japan, Thailand and Russia most, whereas they seem to like all peoples, rather than dislike them. This finding is worth studying by various governments. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be December 18, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2 pm, when the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future will be released. Then on December 20, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Mapping people's feelings towards different governments and peoples
As the world progresses, Hong Kong people need to know and care more about the world, on top of their concern for local matters. Around the time of Hong Kong's handover, we at HKUPOP began to measure Hong Kong people's global views, while at the same time stepping up our surveys on national issues. Herewith some details regarding the development of our survey of "people's feelings towards different governments and peoples":
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In April 1997, our survey series on people's feelings towards different governments began. The wordings used in the questionnaire were "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX government?" We first measured people's feelings towards the Hong Kong, Mainland, British, Taiwanese, Japanese and American governments. Surveys were conducted twice every year at irregular intervals, and after a pause in 2001, we rescheduled our surveys in 2002 to once a year. It has remained unchanged until the end of 2006. As for people's feelings towards the Canadian, Australian, Russian, Indian, Filipino, Indonesian, Vietnamese, Singaporean and Macau governments, we began our survey in September 1997 using the same wordings, but our schedule was to conduct one survey every year. Except for 2001 when no survey was conducted, our schedule has remained unchanged until the end of 2006, except for Macau. We first measured people's feeling towards the Macau government in 1997, then stopped, and resumed our survey in 2004 once very year.
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Starting from May 2007, this survey series is conducted twice every year and is divided into two stages, i.e. naming survey and opinion survey. Then since December 2007, the part on "people's feeling towards different peoples" has also been added. In the naming survey, question wordings used are "Other than the HKSAR, Mainland, Macau and Taiwan, please name up to 10 regions and countries with which you are most familiar" while the wordings used in the opinion survey are "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX government" and "On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards XXX people". Regions covered include the HKSAR, Mainland, Macau and Taiwan, together with those 12 which are mentioned most frequently in the naming stage.
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Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to 1999, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500, while beginning from 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's feelings towards the Macau government, since 2004, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.
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The findings of our surveys on "people's feelings towards the Mainland, British and HKSAR governments" conducted in 1998 and 1999 had been published in our newsletter POP Express, and have also been uploaded on-line at our HKU POP Site. As for the other figures, they are released via our HKU POP Site as well.
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|
| Special Announcement | Latest Figures |
Opinion Daily | Commentary
| News about POP | About HKUPOP
|
| Detailed Findings (Feeling
towards different governments / Feeling
towards different peoples)
|
|