HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive CouncilBack

Press Release on November 20, 2007

Special Announcement

(1) Sponsored by a number of media organizations, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong began its rolling poll on the Legislative Council by-election for the Hong Kong Island Geographical Constituency immediately after the close of nominations on October 31. The methodology is the same as its previous rolling polls conducted every day. According to sponsorship terms, findings are first released immediately to sponsors for exclusive use, and then uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption after no less than 48 hours. Our latest round's rolling poll frequency and cross-tabulation analyses have already been uploaded online on November 15.

(2) With effective from 22 October 2007, POP has been relocated from Meng Wah Complex at the University of Hong Kong to 5/F, Kennedy Town Centre, 23 Belcher's Street, Kennedy Town, Hong Kong. The general line is changed to 3921-2700. The fax number, email address and website address remain unchanged.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest ratings of the Top 5 members of Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have already been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
22-25/10/07 （First stage naming survey）	1,016	67.4%	+/-3%
5-9/11/07 （Second stage rating survey）	1,009	66.3%	+/-1.6

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late-October. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying, Jasper Tsang, Cheng Yiu-tong, Anthony Cheung, Ronald Arculli, David Li, Bernard Chan, Fan Hung-ling and Rafael Hui, were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-November, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	6-10/11/06	1-6/2/07	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07			Latest change
Sample base	1,013	1,020	1,005	1,013	1,009			--
Overall response rate	57.8%	62.5%	63.3%	63.8%	66.3%			--
Maximum sampling error of rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6			--
Finding /Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	Recognition rate
Ronald Arculli	--	58.7 [1]	60.1 [1]	--	62.5[1]	+/-1.2	83.8%	--
Selina Chow	56.2 [2]	56.4 [2]	58.7[2]	60.4 [2]	59.1[2]	+/-1.2	93.6%	-1.3
Leung Chun-ying	49.5 [4]	49.1 [5]	52.5 [4]	54.6 [3]	54.1[3]	+/-1.4	86.0%	-0.5
Cheng Yiu-tong	50.9 [3]	--	--	55.8[**]	51.0[4]	+/-1.6	79.7%	-4.8
Jasper Tsang	48.2 [5]	49.4 [4]	51.8[5]	54.4 [4]	50.7[5]	+/-1.6	88.8%	-3.7
Anthony Cheung	--	--	--	57.5[**]	57.7[]**	+/-1.2	61.5%	+0.2
Rafael Hui	--	--	--	61.7 [1]	--	--	--	--
David Li	56.6 [1]	55.7 [3]	54.9[3]	53.3 [5]	--	--	--	--
Bernard Chan	54.5 [**]	56.6 [**]	57.2[**]	--	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in early-November showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 62.5 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 59.1 marks. The 3rd rank went to Leung Chun-ying with 54.1 marks. Cheng Yiu-tong and Jasper Tsang occupied the 4th and 5th ranks, with 51.0 and 50.7 marks correspondingly. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 55.5 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung obtained support ratings of 57.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	1-6/2/07	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	5-9/11/07	No. of times on top 5	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Selina Chow	56.4	58.7	60.4	59.1	4	58.7	1
Leung Chun-ying	49.1	52.5	54.6	54.1	4	52.6	2
Jasper Tsang	49.4	51.8	54.4	50.7	4	51.6	3
Ronald Arculli	58.7	60.1	^	62.5	3	60.4	4
David Li	55.7	54.9	53.3	^	3	54.7	5
Rafael Hui	^	^	61.7	^	1	61.7	6
Cheng Yiu-tong	^	^	^	51.0	1	51.0	7

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 58.7 marks, Leung Chun-ying who ranked 2nd and attained 52.6 marks, Jasper Tsang who ranked 3rd with 51.6 marks. Moreover, Ronald Arculli and David Li have been on the list for three times with respective average ratings of 60.4 and 54.7 marks and occupied the 4th and 5th places in corresponding order. Two non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list once that Rafael Hui and Cheng Yiu-tong who ranked 6th and 7th with 61.7 and 51.0 marks respectively.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis. Our purpose is to provide readers with accurate information so that they can judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. When "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007, it only contained significant events and popularity figures of the Chief Executive over the past few months. As of today, it contains a chronology of events starting from May 1, 2006, and many poll figures registered since January 1, 2006. Readers can now check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, the content of "Opinion Daily" will continue to expand, in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 each day a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

In August 2007, POP began to include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This press release is no exception.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 6 to 10, 2007 while this survey was conducted from November 5 to 9, 2007. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

6/11/07	Alibaba.com increased 192 percent to close at HK$39.5 on its first trading day
5/11/07	The Hang Seng Index plunges 1,526 points, the largest one-day points drop in its history
3/11/07	Premier Wen Jiabao states that the "through-train" investment scheme is put on hold.
2/11/07	Govt launches a 5-month consultation on a proposal to ban drivers from leaving engines idling while parked
23/10/07	Government subsidizes MTR $6 billion to build West Island Line.
17/10/07	The government furthers its plans for political appointees to the administration
13/10/07	1) CE Donald Tsang apologizes for equating democracy with Cultural Revolution 2) Finanical Secretary plans for tax cuts
10/10/07	CE Donald Tsang releases his Policy Address entitled "A New Direction for Hong Kong"
9/10/07	Green light for rail merger
18/9/07	Government discloses investigation report on the accident of Ngong Ping 360 cable car
17/9/07	Government suspends poultry imports from Guangdong
14/9/07	The government declares King Yin Lei mansion as a proposed monument
12/9/07	The government announces a new proposal for the West Kowloon Cultural District
10/9/07	Acquisition of HKEx by HK Government causes rapid increase in HKEx's price, yet draws different opinion

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, there are two major changes in the popularity ratings of people's five most familiar non-official Executive Councillors. First, Rafael Hui, former Chief Secretary who came first last time immediately after he was appointed a non-official member of the Executive Council, has dropped out of the list this time due to his low recognition rate. This makes Ronald Arculli whose recognition rate usually stays at the margin come first again. Second, Cheng Yiu-tong has come back to the list again after staying away for almost a year, David Li has dropped out instead. It should be noted that our list of top five only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 10 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 5' list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be November 27, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of Top 5 members of Executive Council

The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on November 21, 2006, February 13, May 22 as well as August 6, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey once every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 month until May 2002.
From August 2002 to February 2005, it was conducted once every 6 months. HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"
Meanwhile, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as a non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under the accountability system), their ratings were conducted even more frequently.
In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. In July 2007, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official member to 16 by adding one more member. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming stage and one rating stage, and its current cycle is once every 3 months.
Regarding sample size, from the beginning up to now, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 1,000. All the findings are released on POP Site.