HKU POP SITE releases the findings of Policy Address follow-up surveyBack

Press Release on October 25, 2007

Special Announcement

With effective from 22 October 2007, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has been relocated from Meng Wah Complex at the University of Hong Kong to 5/F, Kennedy Town Centre, 23 Belcher's Road, Kennedy Town, Hong Kong. The general line is changed to 3921-2700. The fax number, email address and website address remain unchanged.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the findings of follow-up survey on people's reactions towards the Policy Address. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
22-23/10/2007	526	67.2%	+/- 4%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings of the instant poll and follow-up survey are summarized below:

Date of follow-up survey (FU survey)							25-27/10/05		23-24/10/06			22-23/10/07
Sample base							513		507			526
Overall response rate							65.4%		61.8%			67.2%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*							+/-4%		+/-4%			+/-4%
Date of instant poll							12/10/05		11/10/06			10/10/07
Sample base							914		1,027			1,023
Overall response rate							66.1%		60.7%			69.9%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*							+/-3%		+/-3%			+/-3%
How satisfied are you with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's Policy Address?**
2007	FU survey	Satisfied	44%	Half-half	31%	Dissatisfied		18%		DK/HS	8%		Total	100%
2007	Instant poll^	Satisfied	52%	Half-half	29%	Dissatisfied		10%		DK/HS	9%		Total	100%
2006	FU survey	Satisfied	26%	Half-half	41%	Dissatisfied		23%		DK/HS	10%		Total	100%
2006	Instant poll^^	Satisfied	30%	Half-half	37%	Dissatisfied		22%		DK/HS	11%		Total	100%
2005	FU survey	Satisfied	41%	Half-half	24%	Dissatisfied		5%		DK/HS	30%		Total	100%
2005	Instant poll^^^	Satisfied	48%	Half-half	33%	Dissatisfied		9%		DK/HS	11%		Total	100%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ Excluding respondents who had not heard of the Policy Address, the sub-sample size of this question in 2007 is thus 602 only, with sampling error of +/- 4%.
^^ Excluding respondents who had not heard of the Policy Address, the sub-sample size of this question in 2006 is thus 445 only, with sampling error of +/- 5%.
^^^ Excluding respondents who had not heard of the Policy Address, the sub-sample size of this question in 2005 is thus 377 only, with sampling error of +/- 5%.

The follow-up survey suggested that, two weeks after the announcement of the Policy Address, 44% of the respondents were satisfied with the contents of the address, 31% said "half-half", and 18% were dissatisfied.

Our survey on people's expectation of CE Donald Tsang's Policy Address conducted in early October showed that the public thought the top five issues CE had to tackle were education, labour and employment, social welfare, economic development and political development. Findings of our follow-up survey on CE Donald Tsang's policy proposals in his Policy Address on these five areas are as follows:

CE said 12-year free education would be offered. Do you agree to his proposal?#
	Agree	90%	Neutral	4%	Disagree	4%	DK/HS	2%	Total	100%
CE said 10 infrastructure projects would be put ahead during his term of office. Do you agree to his proposal?#
	Agree	77%	Neutral	10%	Disagree	4%	DK/HS	8%	Total	100%
CE said the standard rate of salary tax and profits tax would be reduced to 15% and 16.5% respectively in next financial year while rates for the last quarter of this year would also be waived. Do you agree to his proposal?#
	Agree	76%	Neutral	8%	Disagree	10%	DK/HS	7%	Total	100%
CE said citizens aged 70 or above would be given health care vouchers worth $250 to subsidize primary medical care services they purchased from the private sector. Do you agree to his proposal?#
	Agree	64%	Neutral	6%	Disagree	26%	DK/HS	4%	Total	100%
The consultation period for "Green Paper on Constitutional Development" has ended. CE Donald Tsang said in his Policy Address that Government would collate and summarize the views received as well as submit a report to the Central Authorities, reflecting faithfully the community's views on democratic development. Do you believe CE Donald Tsang will reflect faithfully the community views?#**
	Yes	43%	Half-half	29%	No	23%	DK/HS	5%	Total	100%

CE Donald Tsang said in his Policy Address that 12-year free education would be offered, 10 infrastructure projects would be put ahead, the standard rate of salary tax and profits tax would be reduced while rates for the last quarter would also be waived and citizens aged 70 or above would be given health care vouchers worth $250. A respective of 90%, 77%, 76% and 64% of respondents agreed to CE's proposals whereas 4%, 4%, 10% and 26% opposed these proposals in corresponding order. Finally, 43% believed that CE Donald Tsang would reflect faithfully the community's views on democratic development while 23% did not believe.

Commentary

Regarding changes in people's receptiveness of the Policy Address, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "People's satisfaction with a Policy Address usually drops after some public debates, this year is no exception. Our instant poll conducted on the day of the Policy Address shows that 52% of those who have heard of the address were satisfied. After about two weeks, it has dropped about 9 percentage points to 44%. Nevertheless, across the three addresses presented by Donald Tsang, this year's figure is still the best, which far exceeds any similar figure under CH Tung's rule."

As on people's receptiveness of the more important policy proposals, Robert Chung observed, "Because there are many policy initiatives in this year's Policy Address, our instant poll has concentrated on gauging people's receptiveness of some broad concepts mentioned in the address, and reserved the measurement of people's receptiveness of specific policy proposals to our follow-up poll, using findings from our pre-address expectation survey as the framework. According to our expectation survey, five issues stand out to be people's major concern, namely, education, labour and employment, social welfare, economic development and political development. According to our follow-up survey, 90% support CE's proposal to introduce 12-year free education, over 75% support his proposed 10 infrastructure projects and tax reduction, about 65% support his proposal on the provision of health care vouchers to senior citizens, whereas on political development, less than 45% believe that he would faithfully reflect the community's views on democratic development to the Central Government. Political development is no doubt a hot potato for CE Donald Tsang."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be October 26, 2007, Friday, between 1pm and 2pm, when the findings of the second round District Council election survey will be released. Then on October 30, Tuesday, and November 1, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm and 2pm, POP will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government and the latest rating of the top 10 legislative councilors respectively.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".

About HKUPOP

The development of Policy Address follow-up surveys

In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the Policy Address and the Budget Speech are delivered. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. Since the establishment of HKSAR, we began our first Policy Address follow-up survey in October 1997, and our operation has not changed much since then. By "follow-up survey", we mean a survey which is conducted after several weeks when the Policy Address is announced, in order to gauge people's more matured reaction. The development of our Policy Address follow-up surveys is as follows:

Before 2007, our follow-up surveys mainly repeat questions from the instant poll that asked for people's overall appraisal of the Address, and tackle the ad hoc questions designed to match the content of CE's Policy Address. From 2007 onwards, our instant poll focuses on broad concepts put forward by CE in his Policy Address while the follow-up survey mainly gauges people's receptiveness of specific policy proposals in the address, using findings from our pre-address expectation survey as the framework. The questions of our 2007 instant poll are:

1. On the whole, how satisfied are you with Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's Policy Address?
2. Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your degree of satisfaction of the policy address delivered by Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen today, with 0 indicating very dissatisfied, 100 indicating very satisfied and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate his first Policy Address?
3. Has your confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased or decreased after Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen issued his third Policy Address?
4. This year, the theme of CE's Policy Address is "A New Direction for Hong Kong". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of the society?
5. Do you think Donald Tsang's Policy Address delivered today has honoured his pledges made during the CE election?
6. Donald Tsang says over the past decade, there have been too many controversies and too little consensus, thus losing many opportunities. Do you agree to his view?
7. Whose fault is it? (only asking those who said "Agree" or "Half-half" in previous question)
8. Donald Tsang says in two consecutive years that CE needs to face three challenges, including sustainable economic development, constitutional development, and development of a harmonious society. Do you think Donald Tsang can tackle the problem of sustainable economic development/ constitutional development/ development of a harmonious society well in his term of service?

As for the follow-up survey, we retain Question 1 in the instant poll, and then follow the findings of our pre-address expectation survey regarding people's five most concerned policy matters (namely, education, labour and employment, social welfare, economic development and political development in order of priority, please refer to our press release of October 8, 2007), to add five more questions as follows:

1. CE said 12-year free education would be offered. Do you agree to his proposal?
2. CE said 10 infrastructure projects would be put ahead during his term of office. Do you agree to his proposal?
3. CE said the standard rate of salary tax and profits tax would be reduced to 15% and 16.5% respectively in next financial year while rates for the last quarter of this year would also be waived. Do you agree to his proposal?
4. CE said citizens aged 70 or above would be given health care vouchers worth $250 to subsidize primary medical care services they purchased from the private sector. Do you agree to his proposal?
5. The consultation period for "Green Paper on Constitutional Development" has ended. CE Donald Tsang said in his Policy Address that Government would collate and summarize the views received as well as submit a report to the Central Authorities, reflecting faithfully the community's views on democratic development. Do you believe CE Donald Tsang will reflect faithfully the community views?
Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to January 2005, the sample size of our Policy Address follow-up surveys was set at slightly over 1,000. From October 2005 onwards, the sample size has been set at slightly over 500.
The findings from our Policy Address instant surveys conducted on or before November 2000 have been published in our newsletter POP Express, and they are available in our POP Site in various formats.