HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack

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Since January 2007, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has launched a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). It records significant events on a daily basis, as well as provides certain opinion poll figures on those separate days. Our purpose is to provide accurate information for readers to judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of opinion figures. "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007. At the beginning, it only recorded significant events and the popularity figures of the Chief Executive for the previous few months. As of today, it gives a chronology of events back from May 1, 2006, and many other poll figures since January 1, 2006, and its content is ever increasing.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 on a daily basis a record of significant events of the day, according to a research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the 「Opinion Daily」 feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

Starting today, other than reading the chronology of significant events, readers can also check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, 「Opinion Daily」 will be regularly updated and expanded in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

Besides, since mid-August 2007, in POP's regular press releases, we have listed some of the more significant events which happened in between two surveys for readers to make their own judgment whether these events have any effect on polling figure changes.

POP SITE today releases on schedule the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007 . Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao, Ma Ying-jeou, Wen Jiabao, and Jiang Zemin were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late-September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Survey conducted in late-September revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao topped the list, attaining 75.5 marks. The 2nd to 4th ranks went to Zhu Rongji, Hu Jintao and Wu Yi with respective scores of 74.1, 73.5 and 71.4 marks. Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Li Peng occupied the 5th to 7th ranks, attaining 63.2, 58.2 and 44.9 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian, with respective scores of 35.8, 31.4 and 22.5 marks. For this latest survey, Lien Chan and Zeng Qinghong obtained support ratings of 51.0 and 59.1 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 71.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 55.1 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 18 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

* 「Average rating」 is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 18 months.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
^ 「Overall ranking」 is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 18 months showed that nine political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank achieving an average rating of 75.5 marks, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao who ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 74.5 and 72.6 marks correspondingly, Wu Yi, Jiang Zemin and Ma Ying-jeou who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 69.6, 62.9 and 60.3 marks, while Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian at the 7th to 9th ranks, attaining 33.1, 30.1 and 21.9 marks correspondingly. Lien Chan were listed for twice and ranked 10th. James Soong and Li Peng were listed for one time each, and occupied the 11th to 12th ranks.

For most of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from March 13 to 16, 2007 while this survey was conducted from September 17 to 21, 2007. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「Our survey shows that the rankings of the top ten Hong Kong people's most familiar cross-strait political figures have remained almost the same as those six months ago. The only difference is that Lien Chan has fallen outside of the recognition threshold, and his seventh place is replaced by Li Peng. These two plus James Soong are the less familiar faces to Hong Kong people, judging from our last four surveys. It should be noted, however, that our 『Top 10 Cross-Strait Political Figures」 only include those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political figures may have very high or low support ratings, but they are excluded from the list because they are relatively less well-known. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of those figures on the list, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".」

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the latest figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison on October 2, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is 「About HKUPOP」. In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan survey

Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. In July 1997, HKUPOP expanded its 「Top 5 Chinese leaders」 rating surveys which dates back to July 1995 to become 「Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan」, in order to further study people's knowledge and opinions on cross-strait issues. HKUPOP believes that as long as people are concerned with certain issues, it should spare resources to conduct regular surveys on such issues. This has nothing to do with any political orientation, but is part of opinion researchers' social responsibility. In fact, not mentioning Hong Kong people's positions on patriotic issues and the nature of the Taiwan issue itself, in a modern liberal democratic society, the media and survey organizations regularly examine its own people's opinions and feelings towards other nations and races, beyond geographical and ethnic boundaries. We have explained the development of the 「Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan」 surveys in our press releases of September 28, 2006 as well as March 20, 2007. Today, we post it again so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.

• Four years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1995, we began our regular surveys on the ratings of top 5 Chinese leaders. The questions include Hong Kong people's recognition and extent of support towards cross-strait political leaders. In May 1997, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, the survey was changed from 「Top 5」 to 「Top 10」, and the results were released to public in June 1997 for the first time, whereas the ratings for 「Top 5」 survey also ended. From the beginning to its end, the 「Top 5」 survey was conducted once every two months. For the 「Top 10」 survey, its frequency was changed from once every two months in the beginning till October 1997, to once every four months to cope with the social conditions since then. Starting from March 2001, the frequency was changed again and the survey is now conducted once every six months. 
  
  

• Both 「Top 5」 and 「Top 10」 surveys are conducted in two stages. The question wordings are also identical. In the naming stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire are 「Please name up to a certain number of contemporary political leaders in Mainland China and Taiwan that you are most familiar with.」 and multiple responses are allowed. In the rating stage, the question used is 「Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?」
  
  

• Regarding sample size, from the beginning to the end, the sample size of 「Top 5」 survey was set at slightly over 500. As for the 「Top 10」 survey, the sample size from the beginning to January 2000 was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
  
  

• Our first findings of 「Top 5」 surveys in September 1996 or before as well as the findings of 「Top 10」 surveys in July 1997 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the 「Top 10」 surveys were released online since April 2002. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats. Yet, the 「Top 5」 surveys were never released online.

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Opinion Daily | Commentary | News about POP | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings (Rating of the Top Ten Political Figures in Mainland China and Taiwan) |