HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR GovernmentBack

Press Release on September 25, 2007

Special Announcement

Since January 2007, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has launched a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). It records significant events on a daily basis, as well as provides certain opinion poll figures on those separate days. Our purpose is to provide accurate information for readers to judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of opinion figures. "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007. At the beginning, it only recorded significant events and the popularity figures of the Chief Executive for the previous few months. As of today, it gives a chronology of events back from May 1, 2006, and many other poll figures since January 1, 2006, and its content is ever increasing.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 on a daily basis a record of significant events of the day, according to a research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

Starting today, other than reading the chronology of significant events, readers can also check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, "Opinion Daily" will be regularly updated and expanded in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

Besides, since mid-August 2007, in POP's regular press releases, we have listed some of the more significant events which happened in between two surveys for readers to make their own judgment whether these events have any effect on polling figure changes.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
17-21/9/2007	1,008	65.5%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	23-26/7/07	6-10/8/07	20-24/8/07	4-7/9/07	17-21/9/07		Latest change^
Sample base	1,007	1,013	1,010	1,025	*1,008*		--
Overall response rate	64.9%	63.8%	65.2%	66.0%	*65.5%*		--
Maximum sampling error of ratings (at 95 % confidence level)*	+/-1.1	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	*+/-1.0*		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	*+/-3%*		--
Finding for each question/Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	66.4	66.1	66.7	65.3	*65.4*	*+/-1.0*	*+0.1*
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	69%	70%	64%	68%	*64%*	*+/-3%*	*-4%*
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	13%	15%	14%	15%	*15%*	*+/-2%*	--
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance**	51%	--	53%	--	*53%*	*+/-3%*	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance**	10%	--	11%	--	*11%*	*+/-2%*	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings +/-1.0, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.

The latest survey conducted in late-September showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 65.4 marks, and 64% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 53% were satisfied, whereas 11% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-20/9/06	18-20/12/06	19-21/3/07	15-21/6/07	17-21/9/07		Latest change
Sample base	1,013	1,016	1,007	1,006	*1,008*		--
Overall response rate	58.4%	64.1%	63.6%	65.2%	*65.5%*		--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	*+/-3%*		--
Finding /Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Error	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate**	58%	58%	67%	65%	*70%*	*+/-3%*	*+5%*
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate**	11%	12%	8%	8%	9%	*+/-2%*	*+1%*
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate**	46%	46%	56%	57%	*58%*	*+/-3%*	*+1%*
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate**	17%	19%	11%	13%	*16%*	*+/-2%*	*+3%*
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate**	49%	42%	50%	50%	*54%*	*+/-3%*	*+4%*
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate**	17%	21%	17%	19%	*17%*	*+/-2%*	*-2%*
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate**	35%	28%	37%	34%	*36%*	*+/-3%*	*+2%*
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate**	30%	35%	28%	32%	*32%*	*+/-3%*	--
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate**	30%	25%	37%	36%	*32%*	*+/-3%*	*-4%*
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate**	28%	34%	23%	26%	*34%*	*+/-3%*	*+8%*

** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 70%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 58% and 54% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 36% and 32% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.

Opinion Daily

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on June 18, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from June 15 to 21, 2007 while this survey was conducted from September 17 to 21, 2007. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/9/07	Hang Seng index soared through the 25,500-point mark
18/9/07	Government discloses investigation report on the accident of Ngong Ping 360 cable car
17/9/07	Government suspends poultry imports from Guangdong
14/9/07	The government declares King Yin Lei mansion as a proposed monument
12/9/07	The government announces a new proposal for the West Kowloon Cultural District
10/9/07	Acquisition of HKEx by HK Government causes rapid increase in HKEx's price, yet draws different opinion
28/8/07	The Venetian Macao hotel-casino opens and brings competition to HK's exhibition industry
27/8/07	HK stock market scores record high as affected by the "foreign stocks investment for individuals" scheme to be implemented shortly.
24/8/07	The Hospital Authority and Prince of Wales Hospital disclose investigation report on a medical blunder that killed a young woman
21/8/07	China's trial scheme on "foreign stocks investment for individuals" will be implemented in this month.
20/8/07	New trial scheme from Central Government boosts Hong Kong stocks.
19/8/07	HK stocks is expected to recover due to the rebound in US.
16/8/07	Global stock markets crash due to US subprime crisis, Hong Kong stocks mark two-day slump.
15/8/07	Asian markets were hit by the US subprime crisis
11/8/07	Metal workers on strike for a fourth day brings traffic in Hong Kong's central business district to a standstill
2/8/07	A new express rail linking Hong Kong with Guangzhou via Shenzhen will be built as a dedicated track, reducing the traveling time.
1/8/07	1) Hong Kong police evict protesters from Queen's Pier 2) Global stock market plummets
31/7/07	The Queen's Pier protesters flocked to the Pier preparing for a showdown with the government as the deadline for clearing the site passed.
29/7/07	Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor attended the forum for Queen's Pier
27/7/07	Ripple effect from subprime and weak housing triggers global stock market sell-off; Hang Seng Index plummeted 641 points
20/7/07	Government sets measures to end pork supply monopoly.
16/7/07	Consumer Council study reveals MPF management fees stand at a high level
13/7/07	Hang Seng Index breaks 23,000
11/7/07	Gov't published Green Paper on Constitutional Development for public consultation
4/7/07	Pig shortage most probably puts up the price
26/6/07	RMB bonds for sale tomorrow
23/6/07	New SARG officals under accountability system meet the media.
20/6/07	Fanny Law quits as the report on HKIEd incident discloses.
18/6/07	1) Records set for HK stock market? 2) Many newspapers comment on the widening of wealth gap.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two weeks ago, the support rating of CE Donald Tsang has basically remained unchanged, while his support rate, although remains high, has dropped back to that registered one month ago. As for the popularity of the SAR government, it has remained practically the same as that one month ago. For the 5 specific areas of government performance, people are consistently most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, followed by its performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom. Its performance in developing democracy and improving people's livelihood has remained low. According to our records, people's satisfaction with the government relation with the Central Government, and its protection of human rights and freedom, have both reached record high since this series of survey started in July 1997. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 27, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan will be released. Then on October 2, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, the latest figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison will be released.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP"

About HKUPOP

Again on mapping people's trust and satisfaction of different governments

One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of these surveys, we have explained it separately in our press releases of August 22, November 28, December 14 and 27, 2006, April 3 as well as July 3, 2007. Today, we post it again in order to give readers a complete picture of such developments.

(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments

Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.
Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.

(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government

In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.
Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire are "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?".

Also from July 1997, we began to survey people's satisfaction with the government's performance in five policy areas using the following questions: "Are you satisfied with the performance of the HKSAR Government in maintaining economic prosperity / improving people's livelihood / developing democracy / protecting human rights and freedom / handling of its relation with the Central Government?" The frequency of these sub-indicator surveys, however, was gradually thinned down from once every month at the beginning, to once every two months between July 2000 and May 2003, and then to once every three months since July 2003, in order to match the changing social conditions.

Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500, we increased it to at least 1,000 after that. The above surveys are no exceptions. The findings of these surveys are now published regularly on-line at our HKU POP Site, while all previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded on-line in various formats.