HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack

Since January 2007, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has launched a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). It records significant events on a daily basis, as well as provides certain opinion poll figures on those separate days. Our purpose is to provide accurate information for readers to judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of opinion figures. "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007. At the beginning, it only recorded significant events and the popularity figures of the Chief Executive for the previous few months. As of today, it gives a chronology of events back from May 1, 2006, and many other poll figures since January 1, 2006, and its content is ever increasing.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 on a daily basis a record of significant events of the day, according to a research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

Starting today, other than reading the chronology of significant events, readers can also check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, "Opinion Daily" will be regularly updated and expanded in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

Besides, since mid-August 2007, in POP's regular press releases, we have listed some of the more significant events which happened in between two surveys for readers to make their own judgment whether these events have any effect on polling figure changes.

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2007. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Recent figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues are summarized as follows:

Results obtained in early September revealed that 83% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas only 11% showed support. Meanwhile, 54% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 38% expressed no confidence. Moreover, 68% opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 22% supported it. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 51% gave a positive view while 39% gave a negative answer.

As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 82% and 59% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 21% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 20% found more faults than merits in Yang, while 43% of the respondents had no idea.

For the polling items covered in this press release, using the previous survey as a reference point for comparison, our "Opinion Daily" for this release starts on March 13, 2007, because the previous survey of some items was conducted from March 13 to 16, 2007 while this survey was conducted from September 4 to 7, 2007. During this period, only one significant event could be identified by counting stories covered by at least 25% of the newspaper headlines plus commentaries on a certain day. Readers can make their own judgment if this or other events reported in our "Opinion Daily" have any impact on different polling figures:

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and their opposition to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations have both increased 4 percentage points over the past 3 months. The latter figure is now at record high since this survey series started in June 1993. It seems that Hong Kong people are not sympathetic with both the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan in using the UN issue as part of their presidential election campaign. However, what is happening in Taiwan has also made more Hong Kong people believe that "one country two systems" is not applicable to Taiwan, as the number soars to an 8-year high. As for Hong Kong people's appraisals of the merits and faults of some past Chinese leaders, there is not much change over the past 6 months. Most people believe Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in terms of China's development, while Yang Shangkun's contribution is considered to be only half and half."

As on the applicability of "Opinion Daily" to the survey items released this time, Robert Chung explained, "The purpose of compiling our "Opinion Daily" is to facilitate readers making their own judgment on what events have affected what opinion. However, due to their local orientation, local newspapers rarely use cross-strait events in their frontpage headline. According to records in our "Opinion Daily" and counting stories covered by 25% of all newspaper headlines plus commentaries on a certain day, there is only one story related to cross-strait issues. This shows how little attention our people and media pay to cross-strait issues. We can therefore deduce that whatever opinion Hong Kong people hold on these issues, they may be largely based on hearsays than well thoughts."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government on September 25, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly

About HKUPOP

Taiwan issues and appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders

Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Taiwan issues and the appraisal of deceased Chinese leaders long time ago. We have explained the development of the Taiwan issues surveys in our press releases of September 19, 2006, March 15 as well as June 22, 2007. Today, other than posting the development of the "Taiwan issue" survey, we have also included that of the "appraisal of past Chinese leaders" survey, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development. 

(1) Taiwan issue

• Two years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions. 
  
  

• In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?"
  
  

• Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

(2) Appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders

• Since February 1995, POP has surveyed people's appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, including Deng Xiaoping, Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek. Our series stopped in July 2003, but then resumed in March 2005. Except Deng Xiaoping, others have been replaced by more recently deceased leaders, Zhao Ziyang and Yang Shangkun. From the beginning to January 1997, the survey was conducted almost once every month until February 1997 when it was then changed to about once every four months. Since July 2000, it was changed to once every six months (except 2004 when no poll was conducted) to cope with the social development.
  
  

• The question wordings used in "appraisal of past Chinese leaders" survey are, "Would you say Mao Zedong/ Zhou Enlai/ Chiang Kai Shek/ Deng Xiaoping/ Zhao Ziyang/ Yang Shangkun has accrued more merit or demerit in the development of China?".
  
  

• Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.

Our findings of Taiwan issues and appraisal of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders surveys are released online via POP Site. 

| Special Announcement | Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | Opinion Daily | About HKUPOP |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Independence of Taiwan / Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification ) |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan  ) |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations ) |
| Detailed Findings ( Merits and Faults of Past Chinese Leaders ) |