HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of Top 5 members of Executive CouncilBack

Press Release on August 16, 2007

Special Announcement

Since January 2007, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has launched a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). It records significant events on a daily basis, as well as provides certain opinion poll figures on those separate days. Our purpose is to provide accurate information for readers to judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of opinion figures. "Opinion Daily" began to operate on January 17, 2007. At the beginning, it only recorded significant events and the popularity figures of the Chief Executive for the previous few months. As of today, it gives a chronology of events back from July 1, 2006, and many other poll figures since January 1, 2006, and its content is ever increasing.

In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP since July 24 on a daily basis a record of significant events of the day, according to a research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to the "Opinion Daily" feature page as soon as they are verified by POP, in order to provide readers with swifter and more accurate information.

Starting today, other than reading the chronology of significant events, readers can also check on the results of 9 different polling items compiled by POP, including the popularity of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR government, and the Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system. In near future, "Opinion Daily" will be regularly updated and expanded in order to promote the science of opinion polling.

Besides, since mid-August 2007, in POP's regular press releases, we have listed some of the more significant events which happened in between two surveys for readers to make their own judgment whether these events have any effect on polling figure changes.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via POP SITE the latest popularity figures of Top 5 members of Executive Council. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
23-26/7/07 （First stage naming survey）	1,007	64.9%	+/- 3%
6-10/8/07 （Second stage rating survey）	1,013	63.8%	+/- 1.4

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang, David Li, Rafael Hui, Cheng Yiu-tong, Anthony Cheung, Bernard Chan, Ronald Arculli and Fan Hung-ling were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 7 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-August, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 councillors in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-4/8/06	6-10/11/06	1-6/2/07	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07			Latest change
Sample base	1,010	1,013	1,020	1,005	1,013			--
Overall response rate	56.0%	57.8%	62.5%	63.3%	63.8%			--
Maximum sampling error of rating (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.4	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.4			--
Finding /Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	Recognition rate
Rafael Hui	--	--	--	--	61.7 [1]	+/-1.2	88.7%	--
Selina Chow	57.0 [2]	56.2 [2]	56.4 [2]	58.7[2]	60.4 [2]	+/-1.2	94.9%	+1.7
Leung Chun-ying	49.3 [4]	49.5 [4]	49.1 [5]	52.5 [4]	54.6 [3]	+/-1.4	86.8%	+2.1
Jasper Tsang	47.5 [5]	48.2 [5]	49.4 [4]	51.8[5]	54.4 [4]	+/-1.4	90.3%	+2.6
David Li	--	56.6 [1]	55.7 [3]	54.9[3]	53.3 [5]	+/-1.2	87.2%	-1.6
Anthony Cheung	--	--	--	--	57.5[]**	+/-1.2	61.7%	--
Cheng Yiu-tong	49.8 [3]	50.9 [3]	--	--	55.8[]**	+/-1.4	79.3%	--
Ronald Arculli	58.9 [1]	--	58.7 [1]	60.1 [1]	--	--	--	--
Bernard Chan	56.8 [**]	54.5 [**]	56.6 [**]	57.2[**]	--	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.4 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, applicable only to surveys starting from 2006.

The latest survey conducted in early-August showed that Rafael Hui was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 61.7 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 60.4 marks. Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang occupied the 3rd and 4th ranks, with 54.6 and 54.4 marks correspondingly. David Li ranked the 5th, scoring 53.3 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 56.9 marks. For this latest survey, Anthony Cheung and Cheng Yiu-tong obtained support ratings of 57.5 and 55.8 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	6-10/11/06	1-6/2/07	4-9/5/07	6-10/8/07	No. of times on top 5	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Selina Chow	56.2	56.4	58.7	60.4	4	57.9	1
David Li	56.6	55.7	54.9	53.3	4	55.1	2
Leung Chun-ying	49.5	49.1	52.5	54.6	4	51.4	3
Jasper Tsang	48.2	49.4	51.8	54.4	4	51.0	4
Ronald Arculli	^	58.7	60.1	^	2	59.4	5
Rafael Hui	^	^	^	61.7	1	61.7	6
Cheng Yiu-tong	50.9	^	^	^	1	50.9	7

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.

The overall rankings in the past year showed that four non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.9 marks, David Li who ranked 2nd and attained 55.1 marks, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang who ranked 3rd and 4th with respective scores of 51.4 and 51.0 marks. Moreover, Ronald Arculli has been on the list for two times with an average rating of 59.4 marks, occupying at the 5 place. Two non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list once that Rafael Hui and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked 6th and 7th with 61.7 and 50.9 marks respectively.

Opinion Daily

The previous rating survey on the polling items covered in this press release was conducted from May 4-9, 2007 while the latest survey was conducted from August 6-10. In between these two surveys, herewith some of the more significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis, covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can either make their own judgment whether these events have any impact on the polling figures, or reserve their judgment after reviewing all the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily".

9/8/2007	The Chairperson of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, Ma Lik, dies of colon cancer at 55
2/8/2007	A new express rail linking Hong Kong with Guangzhou via Shenzhen will be built as a dedicated track, reducing the traveling time.
1/8/2007	Hong Kong police evict protesters from Queen's Pier
31/7/2007	The Queen's Pier protesters flocked to the Pier preparing for a showdown with the government as the deadline for clearing the site passed.
29/7/2007	Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor attended the forum for Queen's Pier
20/7/2007	Government sets measures to end pork supply monopoly.
16/7/2007	Consumer Council study reveals MPF management fees stand at a high level
15/7/2007	Taxi and light van drivers in a protest at airport against the new pick-up and drop-off measures
11/7/2007	Gov't published Green Paper on Constitutional Development for public consultation
4/7/2007	Pig shortage most probably puts up the price
29/6/2007	President Hu Jintao visits HK for 3 days.
23/6/2007	New SARG officials under accountability system meet the media.
20/6/2007	Fanny Law quits as the report on HKIEd incident discloses.
18/6/2007	Many newspapers comment on the widening of wealth gap.
12/6/2007	Government urges investigation on cable car accident.
6/6/2007	Wu: Hong Kong's autonomy laid down by Beijing
26/5/2007	A cut in beer price in June
14/5/2007	Hong Kong shares rocket under the expanded QDII scheme
9/5/2007	Queen's Pier to be dismantled and removed though with historic status
4/5/2007	Visitors increases during "Golden Week"

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, there are ups and downs in the popularity ratings of people's five most familiar non-official Executive Councillors. The most important change is that Rafael Hui, former Chief Secretary, has become the most popular councillor immediately after he was appointed as a non-official member. This is obviously due to Hui's past performance and popularity as CS. The immediate effect of Hui entering the top five list is the displacement of Ronald Arculli out of the list. Arculli has topped the list many times, but his recognition rate is often marginal. The fact that Hui is appointed into ExCo as an ex-secretary of departments with high popularity means that his influence in ExCo will not be less than any of his colleagues. This is a new change in the governance of the SAR. It should be noted that our list of top five only includes non-official councillors best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 10 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 5' list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 21, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future will be released. Then, on August 23, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the latest ratings of the top 10 political groups.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Popularity survey of Top 5 members of Executive Council

The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on November 21, 2006, February 13 as well as May 22, 2007. Today, we release it again, so that readers can refresh such development.

From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey once every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 months, and ended in May 2002.
From August 2002 to February 2005, it was conducted once every 6 months. HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"
Meanwhile, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as a non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under the accountability system), their ratings were conducted even more frequently.
In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. In July 2007, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official member to 16 by adding one more member. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming stage and one rating stage, and its current cycle is once every 3 months.
Regarding sample size, from the beginning up to now, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 1,000. All the findings are released on POP Site.