|
The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Rita Fan, Selina Chow, Leung Kwok-hung and James Tien were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in late-July, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
14-21/7/06 |
23-27/10/06 |
22-26/1/07 |
17-20/4/07 |
23-26/7/2007 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,006 |
1,010 |
1,020 |
1,011 |
1,007 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
57.1% |
59.9% |
62.5% |
62.7% |
64.9% |
-- |
Maximum sampling error of ratings
(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.8 |
+/-1.6 |
+/-1.6 |
+/-1.6 |
+/-1.6 |
-- |
| Finding for each question/Sampling error* |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Sampling error |
-- |
| Rita Fan |
62.6 [1] |
63.5 [1] |
63.8 [1] |
69.2 [1] |
68.2[1] |
+/-1.0 |
-1.0 |
| Alan Leong |
-- |
58.5 [**] |
58.9 [**] |
59.5 [3] |
60.2[2] |
+/-1.4 |
+0.7 |
| Selina Chow |
57.5 [3] |
55.9 [3] |
57.2 [3] |
58.0 [4] |
59.3[3] |
+/-1.0 |
+1.3 |
| Lee Cheuk-yan |
52.4 [5] |
52.3 [6] |
51.1 [6] |
55.7 [6] |
56.1[4] |
+/-1.2 |
+0.4 |
| James Tien |
52.5 [4] |
53.3 [5] |
54.3 [4] |
55.8 [5] |
55.5[5] |
+/-1.0 |
-0.3 |
| Albert Ho |
-- |
53.9 [4] |
52.7 [5] |
54.8 [7] |
54.8[6] |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
| Jasper Tsang |
48.3 [6] |
49.1 [7] |
50.9 [7] |
-- |
50.5[7] |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
| Emily Lau |
43.7 [8] |
48.7 [8] |
48.1 [9] |
49.4 [9] |
49.6[8] |
+/-1.4 |
+0.2 |
| Martin Lee |
44.6 [7] |
46.4 [9] |
48.6 [8] |
51.0 [8] |
49.1[9] |
+/-1.6 |
-1.9 |
| Leung Kwok-hung |
29.4 [10] |
30.6 [10] |
34.0 [10] |
30.5 [10] |
33.7[10] |
+/-1.6 |
+3.2 |
| Audrey Eu |
58.0 [2] |
57.0 [2] |
59.0 [2] |
61.1 [2] |
59.7[**] |
+/-1.2 |
-1.4 |
| Yeung Sum |
-- |
-- |
-- |
53.5[**] |
54.3[**] |
+/-1.4 |
+0.8 |
| Chan Yuen-han |
-- |
-- |
60.3 [**] |
60.9[**] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Lee Wing-tat |
48.7 [**] |
50.7 [**] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Albert Cheng |
42.7 [9] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Tam Yiu-chung |
51.9 [**] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
The latest survey conducted in late-July showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 68.2 marks. Alan Leong followed behind with 60.2 marks. Selina Chow, Lee Cheuk-yan and James Tien occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with 59.3, 56.1 and 55.5 marks correspondingly. Albert Ho, Jasper Tsang, Emily Lau and Martin Lee ranked 6th to 9th, scoring 54.8, 50.5, 49.6 and 49.1 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 33.7 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 59.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 53.7 marks. For this latest survey, Audrey Eu and Yeung Sum obtained support ratings of 59.7 and 54.3 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
23-27/10/06 |
22-26/1/07 |
17-20/4/07 |
23-26/7/2007 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating* |
Overall ranking** |
| Rita Fan |
63.5 |
63.8 |
69.2 |
68.2 |
4 |
66.2 |
1 |
| Selina Chow |
55.9 |
57.2 |
58.0 |
59.3 |
4 |
57.6 |
2 |
| James Tien |
53.3 |
54.3 |
55.8 |
55.5 |
4 |
54.7 |
3 |
| Albert Ho |
53.9 |
52.7 |
54.8 |
54.8 |
4 |
54.1 |
4 |
| Lee Cheuk-yan |
52.3 |
51.1 |
55.7 |
56.1 |
4 |
53.8 |
5 |
| Emily Lau |
48.7 |
48.1 |
49.4 |
49.6 |
4 |
48.9 |
6 |
| Martin Lee |
46.4 |
48.6 |
51.0 |
49.1 |
4 |
48.8 |
7 |
| Leung Kwok-hung |
30.6 |
34.0 |
30.5 |
33.7 |
4 |
32.2 |
8 |
| Audrey Eu |
57.0 |
59.0 |
61.1 |
-- |
3 |
59.0 |
9 |
| Jasper Tsang |
49.1 |
50.9 |
-- |
50.5 |
3 |
50.2 |
10 |
| Alan Leong |
-- |
-- |
59.5 |
60.2 |
2 |
59.9 |
11 |
|
|
* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that eight Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 66.2 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd attaining 57.6 marks, James Tien, Albert Ho and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked 3rd to 5th with respective scores of 54.7, 54.1 and 53.8 marks, Emily Lau, Martin Lee and Leung Kwok-hung at the 6th to 8th ranks, attaining 48.9, 48.8 and 32.2 marks correspondingly. Audrey Eu and Jasper Tsang occupied the 9th and 10th ranks and they were both listed for three times. Alan Leong who ranked 11th have been on the list twice.
|
|
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, there are both ups and downs in the popularity ratings of Legco members on our top 10 list. Those with significant increases include Leung Kwok-hung and Selina Chow, while those with significant drops include Martin Lee and Rita Fan. In terms of relative rankings, Rita Fan continues to top the list, while Alan Leong, who entered the list of top 10 for the first time in the last survey, makes his way to the 2nd place this time. Audrey Eu, who ranked 2nd last time, falls out of the list due to relatively low recognition rate. As such, there are both gain and loss for the Civic Party. As for the relative rankings of other councillors, other than Jasper Tsang returning to the 7th place after reaching the recognition benchmark, and Lee Cheuk-yan going up from the 6th to 4th place, all other changes are within plus or minus one place, meaning that the popularity list has been fairly stable. It should be noted, however, that our list of top 10 only includes Legislative Councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 14, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors survey
The Legislative Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Legislative Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since 1992. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press release of November 2, 2006, February 6 as well as May 2, 2007. Today, we release again, so that readers can refresh such development:
-
Starting from October 1992, the surveys are conducted once every three months, without any change.
-
Our research design comprises separate naming and rating surveys in two stages. In the naming stage, in between 1992 and 1993, the wordings used in the questionnaire were "Please name up to 5 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." From 1994 onwards, the wordings used in the questionnaire become "Please name up to 10 Legislative Councillors that you are most familiar with." In the rating stage, since the beginning, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate
XXX?"
-
Regarding sample size, from the beginning to March 2000, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, the sample size was increased to at least 1,000.
-
Our first findings of our political group surveys were published in the East Week, which was a magazine on political and economic affairs then. We later published our findings by fax. Then in 1996, HKUPOP published our newsletter POP Express, which naturally carried our findings on this topic. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, we switched to an on-line mode of release since then, while all previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.
|
