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* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
# This series of questions is conducted once every month since July 2007, different from the frequency of support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
^ York Chow has been appointed as the Secretary for Food and Health from July 1, 2007 onwards. Prior to that he was the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food.
^^ Frederick Ma has been appointed as the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development from July 1, 2007 onwards. Prior to that he was the Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury.
^^^ Michael Suen has been appointed as the Secretary for Education from July 1, 2007 onwards. Prior to that he was the Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands.
^^^^ Stephen Lam has been appointed as the Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs from July 1, 2007 onwards. Prior to that he was the Secretary for Constitutional Affairs.
The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.9 marks, and 71% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Henry Tang Ying-yen, FS John Tsang Chun-wah and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 65.4, 57.8 and 68.5 marks, and 59%, 31% and 72% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 78%. The 2nd place went to Secretary for Food and Health York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung. Their reappointment rates were both 54%. The 4th and 5th ranks went to Secretary for Development Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, obtaining support rates of 48% and 45% respectively. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Ceajer Chan Ka-keung occupied the 6th to 8th places, achieving 38%, 36% and 36% accordingly. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung, Secretary for Transport and Housing, Eva Cheng Yu-wah and Secretary for the Environment Edward Yau Tang-wah ranked the 9th to 12th, as they gained 33%, 32%, 29% and 23% vote of confidence from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, York Chow Yat-ngok and Matthew Cheung Kin-chung scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our survey conducted after Donald Tsang's cabinet took office, but before the government published its Green Paper on Constitutional Development, both the support rating and support rate of CE Donald Tsang have not changed much, compared to mid-June. As for the three Secretaries of Departments, those who supported Henry Tang to become Chief Secretary has dropped 18 percentage points compared to those who supported him as Financial Secretary in mid-June, while those who supported Wong Yan-lung as Secretary of Justice has increased by 7 percentage points. As for the Directors of Bureaux, almost all of those who have been reappointed to their old posts, or re-deployed to some new posts, have gained in popularity, especially for Michael Suen. As expected, the recognition rates of the newly appointed principal officials are generally low. This may not post any problem for the time being, but if the situation lingers on for more than 6 months, then the officials concerned should really think about it. According to the benchmarks developed by POP for mapping the popularity of these officials, Ambrose Lee, Wong Yan-lung and Donald Tsang can be labeled as 'ideal', since their approval rates are more than 66%. Henry Tang, Matthew Cheung and York Chow can be labeled as 'successful' with support rates exceeding 50%. The combined support and disapproval rates of Ceajer Chan, Tsang Tak-sing, John Tsang*, Eva Cheng and Edward Yau do not reach 50%, so their performance can be labeled as 'inconspicuous'. The performances of all other officials range between 'successful' and 'depressing' and can be labeled as 'mediocre'. No official falls under the categories of 'depressing' or 'disastrous. POP will continue to explain the concept of these benchmarks, in order to facilitate further discussions on how to make these principal officials more accountable to the general public."
* John Tsang was accidentally omitted from the original draft of the commentary.
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, we will release the latest results of subjective freedom indicators on July 24, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Popularity surveys of CE and principal officials
In advanced democratic countries, the popularity of top leaders and principal officials is the crux of all opinion polls. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. We have explained the development of these surveys in our press releases of October 31, 2006, January 16 and 31, February 8, March 13 as well as June 12, 2007. Today, we post it again, so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.
(1) Development of CE's popularity survey
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From its establishment to the handover of Hong Kong, POP
has continually conducted surveys to measure the popularity rating of
Governor Chris Patten. After the handover when Tung Chee-hwa became the
first Chief Executive in 1997, we began our popularity survey of CE Tung
Chee-hwa. After Tung resigned and Donald Tsang succeeded, POP has begun to
measure Tsang's popularity. The frequency of our surveys was at least once
every month during the Patten era. It was then increased to three times per
month when Tung became CE, until the end of 1997. From January 1998 onwards,
it was reduced to twice every month.
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The question wordings used in "popularity of Governor or CE" survey are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to the Governor/ the Chief Executive XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate the Chief Executive XXX?" and "If a general election of the Chief Executive were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, would you vote for
XXX?".
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Before April 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set at slightly over 500. After that, it was increased to at least 1,000.
(2) Development of CE's popularity (performance) survey
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The frequency of our surveys was once every two months since August 2002. From February 2004 onwards, it was reduced to once every six months.
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The question wordings used in "CE popularity (performance)" survey are: "Do you think XXX is doing a good or bad job as CE?".
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Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000.
(3) Development of the survey for Secretaries of Departments:
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For the rating survey of the Secretaries of Departments, in between January to November 2001, the survey was conducted at an irregular basis. From January 2002 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month. For the support rates of the Secretaries based on people's hypothetical vote of confidence, it was surveyed once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then it was changed to once every two months from February 2004 to December 2005. From January 2006 onwards, the survey is conducted once every month.
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The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to Chief Secretary for Administration XXX/Financial Secretary YYY/Secretary for Justice ZZZ, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX/YYY/ZZZ?". For the support rates of Secretaries, the wordings are "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX/YYY/ZZZ as the Chief Secretary for Administration/Financial Secretary/Secretary for Justice tomorrow, how would you vote?"
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Regarding the sample size, ever since the beginning, the sample size of surveys has been set at slightly over 1,000.
(4) Development of the survey for Directors of Bureaux:
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For the rating survey of the Directors of Bureaux, in between June 2002 to December 2005, the frequency was once every month. From January 2006 to June 2007, the survey is conducted once every two months. For the support rates of Directors of Bureaux, the frequency was once every three months from September 2002 to December 2003. Then from February 2004 to June 2007, the survey was conducted once every two months. In July 2007, with the beginning of CE's new term of office and the appointment of new principal officials, the frequency of support rate survey of the Directors of Bureaux was increased to once every month, while the frequency of rating survey was reduced to once every three months. Moreover, although all survey results are uploaded onto the POP Site in detail, POP no longer analyze the result of rating surveys. This is to better match the evolvement of the accountability system as well as the pace of democratic development.
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Similar to the popularity survey of the Secretaries of Departments, that of the Directors of Bureaux also includes the questions of rating and hypothetical voting. The wordings used in the questionnaire are: "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?" and "If you had the right to vote on the reappointment or dismissal of XXX as YYYYYY tomorrow, how would you vote?" However, the two questions may not be asked in the same survey.
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Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to December 2005, the sample size of the surveys was set at slightly over 1,000. However, from 2006 onwards, this series of questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, and the sample size for each question also varies.
All the findings from our surveys on "popularity of principal officials" have been released online through our HKU POP Site.
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