HKU POP SITE releases findings on Hong Kong and Taiwan peoples' views on the 10th Anniversary of Hong Kong's HandoverBack

Press Release on June 27, 2007

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP |
| Detailed Findings (Hong Kong & Taiwan people's comments on the 10th Anniversary of Hong Kong's Handover) |

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the findings on Hong Kong and Taiwan peoples' views on the 10th Anniversary of Hong Kong's Handover. This release includes results of a survey conducted in mid-June by TVBS Poll centre and related survey findings by POP in the past 3 months for the reason of comparing public opinion in two places. TVBS released the results in Taiwan on June 26, 2006. A point to note is that the Hong Kong surveys conducted by POP aimed at Hong Kong residents who are over 18 while those conducted in Taiwan by TVBS targeted at Taiwan residents who are over 20. As a general practice, all figures of the Hong Kong surveys have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Contact Information for each Hong Kong survey:

	Date of survey	Sample/sub-sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentage*
Q1 and 2	8-11/6/07	521	69.7%	+/-4%
Q3 and 4	18-22/6/07	1,026	65.1%	+/-3%
Q5	19-21/3/07	1,007	63.6%	+/-3%
Q6	8-12/6/07	1,016	69.5%	+/-3%
Q7 to Q9	16-25/5/07	530-564	61.1%	+/-4%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Contact Information of the 10th Anniversary of Hong Kong's Handover survey conducted by TVBS in mid-June:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Sampling error of percentages*	Target Respondents
13-15/6/07	953	+/- 3%	Taiwan residents aged over 20

Recent figures of the opinion of peoples in two places on the implementation of the "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong are as follows:

Opinion of Hong Kong People		Opinion of Taiwan People
Q1. HK version: Since the handover, do you think that the "one country, two systems" implemented by the Central Government in Hong Kong has been successful or failed?* ^ Taiwan version: Hong Kong has returned to China's rule for 10 years. Do you think that the "one country, two systems" implemented in Hong Kong has been successful or failed?*
Successful	62%	Successful	38%
Half-half	21%	So-so / neither successful nor failed	9%
Not successful / failed	13%	Failed	23%
Don't know / hard to say	4%	Don't know / hard to say / no comment	30%

Q2. HK version: Generally speaking, do you think that Hong Kong has become better or worse since the handover?* ^ Taiwan version: Hong Kong has returned to China's rule and implemented the "one country, two systems" for 10 years. Generally speaking, do you think that the lives of Hong Kong people are better, worse or about the same as compared with those before the handover?
Better	40%	Better	17%
No change / about the same	19%	No change / about the same	34%
Worse	36%	Worse	16%
Don't know / hard to say	5%	Don't know	33%

Q3. Under the "one country, two systems", are you confident in Hong Kong's future economic development?* (Note: There is a slight difference in the question wordings between HK version and Taiwan version and such difference is just due to a dialect matter.)
Confident	68%	Confident	41%
Half-half	18%	So-so / about the same	9%
Not confident	11%	Not confident	18%
Don't know / hard to say	3%	Don't know / hard to say / no comment	32%

Q4. Under the "one country, two systems", are you confident in Hong Kong's future democratic development?* (Note: There is a slight difference in the question wordings between HK version and Taiwan version and such difference is just due to a dialect matter.)
Confident	45%	Confident	32%
Half-half	24%	So-so / about the same	7%
Not confident	25%	Not confident	37%
Don't know / hard to say	6%	Don't know / hard to say / no comment	24%

Q5. Hong Kong version: Would you prefer being a SAR citizen after 1997 or a colonial citizen before 1997? # Taiwan Version: If there were only one choice, would you prefer Hong Kong to be a British colony or a special administrative region of China?
Colonial citizen before 1997	31%	British colony	38%
SAR citizen after 1997	41%	SAR of China	36%
Doesn't matter	22%	Don't know / hard to say / no comment	26%
Neither	2%
Don't know / hard to say	4%

* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ Question extracted from a recent poll sponsored by SCMP.
# Question extracted from a recent poll sponsored by RTHK.

With respect to the comments on "one country, two systems", 62% of Hong Kong people considered it successful. Only 38% of Taiwan people gave positive comments. 13% of Hong Kong people considered it not successful, which is less than the 23% from Taiwan people.

As for the overall condition of Hong Kong after the handover, 40% of Hong Kong people considered Hong Kong had become better, while 36% thought it had become worse. On the other hand, only 17% of Taiwan people thought the lives of Hong Kong people were better than those before the handover, but 16% thought the opposite.

Regarding the confidence of Hong Kong's development under "one country, two systems", the survey revealed that 68% of Hong Kong people were confident in Hong Kong's future economic development while only 41% of Taiwan people shared the view. 18% of Hong Kong people felt half-half, whereas 9% for Taiwan people. On the other hand, only 11% of Hong Kong people were pessimistic towards Hong Kong's future economy, which was less than the 18% from Taiwan respondents.

In terms of democratic development, 45% of Hong Kong people were confident, which is more than the 32% from Taiwan people. 24% of Hong Kong felt half-half, whereas 7% for Taiwan people. Besides, 25% of Hong Kong people and 7% of Taiwan people were not confident in Hong Kong's democratic development.

With respect to the comparison between colonial and SAR governance, 31% of Hong Kong people preferred being a citizen of British colony before 1997. 41% of Hong Kong opted for being a SAR citizen. In Taiwan, 38% of respondents wished Hong Kong to be a British colony, but 36% hoped Hong Kong as a SAR of China.

The following is the opinion of peoples in two places on the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan:

Q6. HK version: Do you think "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan? Taiwan version: 1): On a whole, do you think "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?* 2) Do you support or oppose Taiwan implementing "one country, two systems"? That's exactly the mode for Hong Kong and Mainland China right now.
Opinion of Hong Kong People		Opinion of Taiwan People
Applicable	52%	Applicable	21%	Support	23%
Not applicable	33%	Fair	2%	Oppose	55%
Don't know/hard to say	15%	Not applicable	53%	Don't know	21%
		Don't know/no comment/hard to say	23%

* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

With respect to the "one country, two systems" and Taiwan issues, 52% of Hong Kong respondents said "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan, 33% considered not applicable. In Taiwan, only 21% said applicable and 23% supported the implementation whereas 53% considered not applicable and 55% opposed it.

Latest results of Hong Kong and Taiwan people's feelings towards three cross-strait governments are as follows:

Opinion of Hong Kong people		Opinion of Taiwan people
Q7. HK version: On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards the Chinese Government?* Taiwan version: On a whole, do you feel more positive or more negative towards the Chinese Mainland Government?*
Positive	44%	Positive	11%
Half-half	43%	Fair/more or less	20%
Negative	12%	Negative	51%
Don't know/hard to say	1%	Don't know/no comment/hard to say	16%

Q8. HK version: On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards the HKSAR Government?* Taiwan version: On a whole, do you feel more positive or more negative towards the HKSAR Government?*
Positive	53%	Positive	24%
Half-half	40%	Fair/more or less	16%
Negative	7%	Negative	22%
Don't know/hard to say	1%	Don't know/no comment/hard to say	38%

Q9. HK version: On a whole, do you have positive or negative feelings towards the Taiwan Government?* Taiwan version: On a whole, do you feel more positive or more negative towards our Government?*
Positive	5%	Positive	21%
Half-half	28%	Fair/more or less	17%
Negative	59%	Negative	50%
Don't know/hard to say	8%	Don't know/no comment/hard to say	10%

* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

As for Hong Kong and Taiwan peoples' feelings towards three cross-strait governments, 44% of Hong Kong respondents had positive feelings towards the Chinese Government which is more than the 11% registered in Taiwan. On the other hand, only 12% of Hong Kong people felt negative towards the Chinese Government and this is far less than the 51% in Taiwan.

With respect to peoples' feelings towards HKSAR Government, 53% of Hong Kong people had positive feeling while only 24% of Taiwan counterparts felt the same way. Only 7% of Hong Kong people had negative feelings which is less than the 22% registered in Taiwan.

Besides, as for peoples' feelings towards Taiwan Government, only 5% of Hong Kong respondents felt positive towards Taiwan government which is less than the 21% registered in Taiwan. On the other hand, a respective of 59% of Hong Kong people and 50% of Taiwan counterparts had negative feelings.

Latest results of Taiwan people's opinion towards the development of Hong Kong after the handover are as follows:

Q10. On a whole, do you think the democratic development in Hong Kong has got better, worse or remained unchanged when compared with that before the handover? (Opinion of Taiwan people)
Better	10%	No change/more or less	40%	Worse	30%	Don't know	20%	Total	100%
Q11. On a whole, do you think the economic development in Hong Kong has got better, worse or remained unchanged when compared with that before the handover? (Opinion of Taiwan people)
Better	32%	No change/more or less	31%	Worse	17%	Don't know	21%	Total	100%

* Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Regarding the democratic development in Hong Kong, 10% of the Taiwan respondents believed that it has got better when compared with that before the handover while 30% gave a negative answer. As for the economic development in Hong Kong, 32% said it turned better whereas 17% had a negative view.

Commentary

With regard to Hong Kong and Taiwan peoples' evaluation of "one country, two systems", Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to the surveys conducted by POP and TVBS in parallel, although about a third of Taiwan people did not have a definite opinion, almost 40% believed "one country, two systems" is a success in Hong Kong, which is 15 percentage points higher than those who said it is a failure. Hong Kong people, however, are 24 percentage points more positive, as over 60% said it is a success. On whether "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan, findings from the two places are exactly opposite. In Hong Kong, over half said yes, but in Taiwan, over half said no. If "one country, two systems" is meant to be a showpiece for Taiwan, then this wish has failed to come true after ten years. As on the future of "one country, two systems", both peoples are optimistic about Hong Kong's economic development. However, only Hong Kong people are optimistic about democratic development. Taiwan people are rather pessimistic."

On Hong Kong and Taiwan peoples' feelings towards different governments, Robert Chung observed, "One interesting finding of this comparative study is that both peoples feel negatively about the Taiwan Government. As for the Chinese Mainland Government, Taiwan people generally dislike it while Hong Kong people generally like it. Finally for the Hong Kong SAR Government, more than half of Hong Kong people like it, but there is a half-half split among Taiwan people."

To wrap up, Robert Chung concluded, "After the handover of Hong Kong, Taiwan rapidly moves towards democratization and localization. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's role as a cross-strait bridge gradually dwindles. The result is that interaction between the two peoples becomes less frequent. Taiwan issues gradually become taboos in Hong Kong society, while Taiwan society gradually takes Hong Kong issues as Mainland China issues. Both developments are neither conducive to mutual exchanges between the two peoples, nor are they good for the future development of Chinese culture. In this context, it is hoped that this joint study conducted by POP and TVBS would help to increase mutual understanding of these two peoples, and pull them closer to a certain extent."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 28, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest results of the Handover Anniversary survey will be released. Then on July 3, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.