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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan and their confidence in cross-strait reunification have not changed much over the past 3 months. People's opposition to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations has, however, jumped 9 percentage points, while those who considered "one country, two systems" to be applicable to Taiwan has dropped 7 percentage points. The signature campaign recently launched by the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan, to establish a referendum proposal on whether Taiwan should join the United Nations under the title "Taiwan", as part of its strategy to bind next year's presidential election to referendums, has invited criticisms from both the United States and Beijing Central Governments. This might have affected Hong Kong people's views on this issue. On the other hand, in our press release of June 14, we mentioned that the recent speech of Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, on the limits of Hong Kong's autonomy might have reduced Hong Kong people's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in "one country, two systems". It now seems that Wu's speech might also have decreased the number of Hong Kong people who think that "one country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 26, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest findings of people's opinions towards ethnic identity will be released. Then on June 28, 2007, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, POP will release the latest results of the Handover Anniversary survey.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Taiwan issues
Be it under British colonial rule or under "one country, two systems", Hong Kong has always been part of China. It thus seems natural for HKUPOP to survey people's opinion on Chinese national and ethnical issues, if we can squeeze some resources. This is exactly what we did, when we embarked on conducting the regular surveys on Taiwan issues and the appraisal of deceased Chinese leaders long time ago. We have explained the development of the Taiwan issues surveys in our press releases of September 19, 2006 and March 15, 2007. Today, we release it again so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such
development.
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Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. They include: Taiwan independence, Taiwan joining the United Nations, Hong Kong people's trust of the Taiwan government, and people's confidence in cross-strait reunification. By 1996, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, whether "one country, two systems" should be equally applicable to Taiwan or not became a talking point for peoples across the Strait. HKUPOP therefore added it to the pool of tracking questions. Starting from April 2000, the survey was conducted once every two months but in June 2000, its frequency was changed to once every three months to cope with the social conditions.
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In terms of wording, the 4 questions used in the questionnaire are "Are you confident in the ultimate reunification of Taiwan and Mainland China?", "Do you agree to Taiwan rejoining the United Nations?", "Do you agree to Taiwan becoming independent?" and "Do you think "One country, two systems" is applicable to Taiwan?"
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning to April 2000, the sample size of Taiwan issues survey was set at slightly over 500. From June 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
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Our first findings of Taiwan issues surveys in May 1997 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the issues on Taiwan independence and cross-trait reunification were released online. The findings on the applicability of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan and its rejoining the United Nations were released online since June 2004 and March 2005, respectively. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats.
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