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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to two months ago, all five trust and confidence indicators have dropped. People's trust in the Central Government has dropped most, by 8 percentage points, followed by people's confidence in "one country, two systems", which dropped 5 percentage points, and then people's trust in the HKSAR Government, which dropped 4 percentage points. People's confidence in Hong Kong and China's future have both dropped slightly, but within sampling errors. According to our records in the "Opinion Daily" section of our POP Site, in terms of media reports, the only major event over the past two months related to Central-HK relationship is the speech of Wu Bangguo, Chairman of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, on the limits of Hong Kong's autonomy. This probably explains the drop in people's trust in the Central Government and their confidence in "one country, two systems". Two months ago, both figures had surged to record high since 1992 and 1993. If Wu's speech had indeed turned the tide, it would be really unfortunate."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. As next Tuesday is a public holiday, POP Site will release our survey result on June 20, 2007, Wednesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when people's appraisal of local news media will be released.
It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Since January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP".
About HKUPOP
Mapping people's trust and satisfaction with different governments, and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems"
One important aspect of opinion polling around the world is to monitor people's trust and satisfaction of the government. Shortly after HKUPOP was established, we started to conduct surveys on these aspects. Regarding the development of the surveys, we have explained it in our press release of August 22, November 7 and 28, December 14, 2006, February 21, as well as April 26 2007. Today, we post it again to give readers a more comprehensive picture of such developments.
(1) Mapping people's trust in different governments
- Due to Hong Kong's very special political status, before the handover in 1997, our survey covered people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. After the handover, the survey method remained unchanged, but the term British Hong Kong Government was substituted by the HKSAR Government, and Chinese Government was substituted by Central Government, while our survey on people's trust in the British Government stopped.
- Our surveys began in December 1992, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you trust such and such government?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until October 1997 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
- Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.
(2) Mapping people's satisfaction with the government
- In December 1992, we started to survey people's trust in the British Hong Kong, British, Chinese, and Taiwan Governments. These surveys continued after the handover, but we expanded their scope by introducing people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government. We take measurements as frequently as we could, using our limited resources. Besides people's general satisfaction with the HKSAR Government, our survey also includes indicators on the government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity, improving people's livelihood, pace of democratic development, and so on.
- Our surveys on people's satisfaction with the HKSAR Government in general began in July 1997. Since then, it has been conducted once every month. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?"
- Before May 2000, the sample size of our regular surveys was set slightly over 500. After that, it was then increased to at least 1,000.
(3) Mapping people's confidence in the future and "one country, two systems"
- In December 1992, our survey series on people's confidence started. With respect to people's confidence in Hong Kong, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in HK's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month, until April 1998 when it was changed to once every two months. It has remained unchanged since then.
- As for people's confidence in China's future, the frequency was not quite stable at the beginning. Beginning in July 1997, the wordings used in the questionnaire being "Do you have confidence in China's future?". Surveys were conducted once every month at the beginning, but between January 1998 and July 2001, only 5 surveys were conducted on an irregular basis. Then, in August 2001, the survey began its regular course of development, and has been conducted once every two months since then.
- As for people's confidence in "one country, two systems", the survey started in June 1993. The wordings used in the questionnaire being "On the whole, do you have confidence in 'one country, two systems?". Surveys were conducted once every two months, until May 1995 when it was changed to once every month, but were later on changed to once every two months since February 1998. It has remained unchanged since then.
- Regarding the sample size, from the beginning to June 2000, the sample size of "people's confidence in HK's future "one country, two systems" survey was set at slightly over 500, while starting from May 2000, it was increased to at least 1,000. As for "people's confidence in China's future, since July 2001, the sample size has been changed from slightly over 500 to at least 1,000.
The above findings have all been published regularly on-line via our HKU POP Site, while all the previous findings published via our newsletter POP Express have also been uploaded in various formats.
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