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The research design of our "Top 5 Executive Councilors" is similar to that of our "Top 10" series, it is explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late-April. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. Leung Chun-ying, Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang, David Li, Ronald Arculli, Bernard Chan, Fan Hung-ling, Anthony Cheung, Cheng Yiu-tong, and Laura Cha were the ten most frequently mentioned councillors. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early-May, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed councillor in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 members of Executive Council are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
4-10/5/06 |
1-4/8/06 |
6-10/11/06 |
1-6/2/07 |
4-9/5/07 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,019 |
1,010 |
1,013 |
1,020 |
1,005 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
60.7% |
56.0% |
57.8% |
62.5% |
63.3% |
-- |
| Maximum sampling error of rating (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 1.4 |
+/-1.4 |
+/-1.4 |
+/-1.6 |
+/-1.6 |
-- |
| Finding /Sampling error* |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Sampling error |
Recognition rate |
|
| Ronald Arculli |
59.3 [1] |
58.9 [1] |
-- |
58.7 [1] |
60.1[1] |
+/-1.2 |
73.8% |
+1.4 |
| Selina Chow |
56.7 [2] |
57.0 [2] |
56.2 [2] |
56.4 [2] |
58.7[2] |
+/-1.2 |
89.7% |
+2.3 |
| David Li |
54.9 [3] |
-- |
56.6 [1] |
55.7 [3] |
54.9[3] |
+/-1.2 |
75.6% |
-0.8 |
| Leung Chun-ying |
49.7 [4] |
49.3 [4] |
49.5 [4] |
49.1 [5] |
52.5[4] |
+/-1.6 |
76.1% |
+3.4 |
| Jasper Tsang |
48.3 [5] |
47.5 [5] |
48.2 [5] |
49.4 [4] |
51.8[5] |
+/-1.4 |
81.4% |
+2.4 |
| Bernard Chan |
-- |
56.8 [**] |
54.5 [**] |
56.6 [**] |
57.2[**] |
+/-1.4 |
50.2% |
+0.6 |
| Cheng Yiu-tong |
50.8 [**] |
49.8 [3] |
50.9 [3] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-1.6 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings, applicable only to surveys starting from 2006.
The latest survey conducted in early-May showed that Ronald Arculli was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 60.1 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 58.7 marks. David Li and Leung Chun-ying occupied the 3rd and 4th ranks, with 54.9 and 52.5 marks correspondingly. Jasper Tsang ranked the 5th, scoring 51.8 marks. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 55.6 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained support ratings of 57.2 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past year are tabulated as follows:
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* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 4 surveys.
** "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
^ Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 5 in either stage of survey are not available.
The overall rankings in the past year showed that three non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Selina Chow in the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.1 marks, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang ranked 2nd and 3rd with respective scores of 50.1 and 49.3 marks. Moreover, two non-official Executive Councillors have been on the list for three times that Ronald Arculli and David Li ranked 4th and 5th with 59.2 and 55.8 marks respectively, and Cheng Yiu-tong ranked 6th with 50.4 marks.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the rankings of people's most familiar non-official Executive Councillors have remained more or less the same, while their ratings have generally increased. Summing up all findings since the reorganization of the Executive Council in October 2005, Selina Chow, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang appear on the list every time, and can be regarded as the better-known Councillors. Among them, Selina Chow is the most popular. Ronald Arculli, David Li and Cheng Yiu-tong always compete with each other in terms of recognition rate near the borderline, with one of them dropping out of the list every time. Among them, Cheng Yiu-tong is the weakest. As for the other 9 non-official Executive Councillors, some of them may have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the best-known Councillors, they do not appear in our top five list by design. Because the Chief Executive will soon revamp his leadership team, things may become very different in our next survey of Executive Councillors."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 29, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.
About HKUPOP
Popularity survey of Top 5 members of Executive Council
The Executive Council is an important component of Hong Kong's constitutional system. It is hence well justified to monitor the popularity change of the Executive Council as a whole and its members on an individual basis. HKUPOP has started this polling series since the handover. We explained the development of this polling series in our press release dated on November 21, 2006 and February 13, 2007. Today, we release again, so that readers can refresh such development.
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From July 1997, HKUPOP conducted this survey once every month by asking the question "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the members of the HKSAR Executive Council?" Then from July 2000, the frequency of survey was changed to once every 2 months, and ended in May 2002.
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From August 2002 to February 2005, it was conducted once every 6 months. HKUPOP adopted a more specific way of asking, and the question became "Do you think XXX, YYY, ZZZ…are doing a good or bad job as the non-official members of Executive Council?"
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Meanwhile, HKUPOP also surveyed the popularity rating for each non-official Executive Councillor once every 3 months between July 2003 and October 2005. The question used was "Please rate your support of XXX as a non-official Executive Councillor using a 0-100 scale. 0 stands for absolutely no support, 100 stands for absolute support, 50 stands for half-half. How would you rate XXX?" This rating exercise targeted at all non-official members and sit-in members including the Head of Central Policy Unit and the Director of Chief Executive's Office, which summed up to a maximum of 22 persons in October 2005 right before the reorganization. As for the official Executive Councillors (i.e. Principal Officials under the accountability system), their ratings were conducted even more frequently.
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In October 2005, CE Donald Tsang increased the number of non-official members to 8. To cope with this change and reduce our workload, HKUPOP has started the rating survey on "Top 5 non-official members of Executive Council" since then in order to replace the previous rating survey of all individual Councillors. This "Top 5 Councillors" survey includes one naming stage and one rating stage, and its current cycle is once every 3 months.
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Regarding sample size, from the beginning up to now, the sample size of the survey was set at slightly over 1,000. All the findings are released on POP Site.
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