HKU POP SITE releases daily tracking analyses of CE Election rolling pollBack

Press Release on March 22, 2007

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today continues to release the latest figures of the CE Election rolling polls. Because the daily samples of such polls have increased from 250+ to 350+ since March 15, POP considers it appropriate to release the daily figures. The latest figures, however, will be used by the sponsors first and then later uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. Organizations wishing to sponsor these polls can contact Miss Pang at 2859-2988.

Background

In 1996, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted many rounds of surveys on the Chief Executive election, most of which were conducted after Tung Chee-hwa formally announced his intention to stand for the election. During the 2005 CE by-election, because a number of well-known political figures had declared their intention to stand, POP therefore also started our CE election polling routine. Between the end of January and early February this year, both Alan Leong and Donald Tsang embarked on their CE election campaigns, POP therefore switched on our CE election series accordingly. In our three rounds of feature survey, respondents were asked to rate the suitability of Leong and Tsang, as well as to vote hypothetically. The results have already been released long ago.

POP's CE Election rolling poll began on February 26 using similar questions, whereby respondents were asked to rate the suitability of the two candidates and to vote hypothetically. The first batch of focus analyses was released on March 9, in the form of 4-day rolling analyses. According to schedule, beginning from March 15, POP increased the daily samples of the polls from 250+ to 350+. Yesterday, March 21, POP wrapped up the findings again and released them in the form of 4-day and 2-day analyses. Today, POP releases via the POP SITE (http://hkupop.pori.hk) again the latest figures and charts of the rolling poll, this time including daily tracking figures and charts on top of the 4-day and 2-day analyses. This press release reprints some of those charts for focus analyses. Readers who would like to examine the figures in detail, or to study the effects of various demographic variables can check them out at the POP Site.

It should be noted that as the period of rolling gets shorter, the sample size gets smaller, and the sampling errors get bigger. For this reason, POP did not release 2-day rolling or daily tracking figures before our sample size grew to 350+ daily. Readers are advised to check carefully the contact information and sampling errors of all surveys before using them. For the latest rolling figures released, roughly speaking, the sampling error of all percentages for 4-day rolling samples should not exceed +/-2.6 percentage points, at 95% confidence level using the full sample. For 2-day rolling samples, it should not exceed +/-3.8 percentage points. For daily tracking samples, it should not exceed +/-5.4 percentage points. Sampling errors of rating figures are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Charts

(1) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 19, daily changes of Donald Tsang's support rate with respective to respondents' different political inclinations are as follows:

(2) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 19, daily changes of Donald Tsang's support rate with respective to respondents' different educational attainment are as follows:

(3) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 19, daily changes of Alan Leong's support rate with respective to respondents' different political inclinations are as follows:

(4) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 19, daily changes of Alan Leong's support rate with respective to respondents' different education attainment are as follows:

Commentary

On the four charts carried in this release, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made these simple observations: "In this press release, we have focused on the extent of support for each candidate with respect to the education level and political inclination of the respondents, because we find them worth-noting after analyzing all our CE election surveys. Moreover, because daily tracking figures can reflect the effect of daily events more accurately within the constraints of sampling errors, they can be mapped with election diaries to study people's changing support of the candidates. Put it simple, people's support towards the two candidates seems to have remained rather stable, up to March 19 which is the cut-off date covered by this release. The effect of election debate seems more obvious among the self-proclaimed democratic supporters, and those with tertiary education. However, even there, the effect is short-lived."

Concluding Remarks

Other than questions on the research design of the surveys mentioned, POP will not provide further comments on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Tomorrow, POP will continue to release our rolling poll findings on a daily tracking basis, but please note that the most updated figures will be used and released by the sponsors first, before they are uploaded onto the POP site some days later.