HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan and their appraisal of past Chinese leadersBack

Press Release on March 20, 2007

Special Announcement

The Chief Executive Election is reaching its final stage, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will release on a daily basis the latest findings and analysis of our election surveys, first for sponsors' use and then uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public reference. Potential sponsors can call Miss Pang at 2859-2988 for more details.

Latest Figures

POP SITE today releases on schedule the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2006. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages/ratings*
7-12/3/07 （First stage naming survey）	1,033	58.8%	+/-3%
13-16/3/07 (Second stage rating survey)	1,036	61.2%	+/-1.8

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Ma Ying-jeou, and Lu Hsiu-lien were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in mid-March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997. Recent ratings of the top political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	15-21/9/05	13-17/3/06	14-20/9/06	13-16/3/07			Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,010	1,013	1,036			--
Overall response rate	61.9%	59.4%	58.4%	61.2%			--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.6	+/-1.8			--
Finding for each question/ Sampling error*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Sampling error	Recognition rate	--
Wen Jiabao	76.5 [1]	76.0 [1]	74.0 [2]	76.5[1]	+/-1.0	94.7%	+2.5
Zhu Rongji	76.2 [2]	74.7 [2]	74.3 [1]	74.7[2]	+/-1.2	89.7%	+0.4
Hu Jintao	74.3 [3]	73.1 [3]	70.7 [3]	73.0[3]	+/-1.0	94.2%	+2.3
Wu Yi	--	67.9 [4]	67.9 [4]	71.3[4]	+/-1.2	78.6%	+3.4
Jiang Zemin	65.6 [5]	64.2 [5]	61.0 [5]	63.1[5]	+/-1.4	90.6%	+2.1
Ma Ying-jeou	65.4 [6]	64.0 [6]	58.9 [6]	60.3[6]	+/-1.0	88.3%	+1.4
Lien Chan	56.8 [7]	55.3 [7]	--	52.2[7]	+/-1.4	78.0%	--
Lee Teng-hui	37.7 [10]	28.7 [9]	32.7 [8]	35.0[8]	+/-1.6	82.3%	+2.3
Lu Hsiu-lien	38.3 [9]	28.8 [8]	31.0 [9]	29.4[9]	+/-1.6	83.0%	-1.6
Chen Shui-bian	38.9 [8]	25.7 [10]	18.9 [10]	20.5[10]	+/-1.4	91.0%	+1.6
Zeng Qinghong	67.4 [4]	--	--	59.5[]**	+/-1.4	69.9%	--
Wang Chin-ping	--	--	--	48.5[]**	+/-1.8	45.3%	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of ratings +/-1.8 at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Survey conducted in mid-March revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Wen Jiabao, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao were the top 3, attaining 76.5, 74.7 and 73.0 marks respectively. Wu Yi, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan occupied the 4th to 7th ranks, attaining 71.3, 63.1, 60.3 and 52.2 marks correspondingly. The 8th to 10th ranks fell to Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian, with respective scores of 35.0, 29.4 and 20.5 marks. For this latest survey, Zeng Qinghong and Wang Chin-ping obtained support ratings of 59.5 and 48.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 71.7 marks, while that for the top 10 was 55.6 marks. As for the overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 24 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	15-21/9/05	13-17/3/06	14-20/9/06	13-16/3/07	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking^
Wen Jiabao	76.5	76.0	74.0	76.5	4	75.7	1
Zhu Rongji	76.2	74.7	74.3	74.7	4	75.0	2
Hu Jintao	74.3	73.1	70.7	73.0	4	72.8	3
Jiang Zemin	65.6	64.2	61.0	63.1	4	63.5	4
Ma Ying-jeou	65.4	64.0	58.9	60.3	4	62.1	5
Lee Teng-hui	37.7	28.7	32.7	35.0	4	33.5	6
Lu Hsiu-lien	38.3	28.8	31.0	29.4	4	31.9	7
Chen Shui-bian	38.9	25.7	18.9	20.5	4	26.0	8
Wu Yi	--	67.9	--	71.3	2	69.6	9
Lien Chan	--	55.3	--	52.2	2	53.7	10
Zeng Qinghong	67.4	--	--	--	1	67.4	11
James Soong	--	--	51.7	--	1	51.7	12

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by political figures over the past 24 months.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not listed.
^ "Overall ranking" is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 24 months showed that eight political figures have been on the list for four times. They are Wen Jiabao in the top rank achieving an average rating of 75.7 marks, Zhu Rongji and Hu Jintao who ranked 2nd and 3rd, attaining 75.0 and 72.8 marks correspondingly, Jiang Zemin, Ma Ying-jeou and Lee Teng-hui who ranked 4th to 6th with respective scores of 63.5, 62.1 and 33.5 marks, while Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian at the 7th to 8th ranks, attaining 31.9 and 26.0 marks correspondingly. Wu Yi and Lien Chan were listed for twice. Zeng Qinghong and James Soong were listed for one time each, and occupied the 11th to 12th ranks.

As for respondents' appraisals of the merits and faults of past Chinese leaders, POP has been tracking people's appraisal of these leaders since 1995, but our series on Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Chiang Kai Shek stopped in 2003, while that on more recently deceased leaders Zhao Ziyang, Yang Shangkun and Deng Xiaoping continued. The most recent results are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-7/9/05	13-17/3/06	1-7/9/06	13-16/3/07	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,010	1,007	1,036	--
Overall response rate	62.0%	59.4%	57.5%	61.2%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/-3%	--
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more merits	78%	75%	79%	81%	+2%
Deng Xiaoping had accrued more faults	4%	4%	3%	2%	-1%
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more merits	62%	57%	59%	58%	-1%
Zhao Ziyang had accrued more faults	4%	3%	4%	3%	-1%
Yang Shangkun had accrued more merits	20%	17%	17%	17%	--
Yang Shangkun had accrued more faults	18%	15%	20%	18%	-2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures.

According to our latest survey, those considering Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang have accrued more merits than faults in the development of China accounted for 81% and 58% respectively. For Yang Shangkun, 17% of the respondents thought he has accrued more merits than faults, 18% found more faults than merits in Yang, while 43% of the respondents had no idea.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest findings show that Premier Wen Jiabao has again overtaken Former Premier Zhu Rongji as the most popular cross-strait political figure among Hong Kong people. President Hu Jintao remains at the 3rd place. Wen Jiabao's latest score is the same as that registered in September 2005, both being record highs. As for political figures in Taiwan, President Chen Shui-bian, Vice-President Lu Hsiu-lien, and Former President Lee Teng-hui all remain at the bottom first, second and third positions, with ratings between 20 and 35 marks. Together with our survey findings on Hong Kong people's views on various Taiwan issues, there is little doubt that people's ratings of these Taiwan political figures are affected by their pro-independence stance. As for people's appraisals of the merits and faults of some past Chinese leaders, putting our past figures together, Hong Kong people have clearly judged Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang as having accrued more merits than faults in terms of China's development, while Yang Shangkun's contribution is considered to be only half and half."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 27, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the results of the Budget follow-up survey will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

For the whole of last year, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of sharing our research experience with the readers and the general public, and the subject of our education section today is "About HKUPOP". In the near future, we will keep on stepping up our effort in promoting general civic education to enhance our POP Site accordingly.

About HKUPOP

Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan survey

Two years after HKUPOP was established, in 1993, we began our regular surveys on Hong Kong people's views on different Taiwan issues. In July 1997, HKUPOP expanded its "Top 5 Chinese leaders" rating surveys which dates back to July 1995 to become "Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan", in order to further study people's knowledge and opinions on cross-strait issues. HKUPOP believes that as long as people are concerned with certain issues, it should spare resources to conduct regular surveys on such issues. This has nothing to do with any political orientation, but is part of opinion researchers' social responsibility. In fact, not mentioning Hong Kong people's positions on patriotic issues and the nature of the Taiwan issue itself, in a modern liberal democratic society, the media and survey organizations regularly examine its own people's opinions and feelings towards other nations and races, beyond geographical and ethnic boundaries. We have explained the development of the "Top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan" surveys in our press releases of September 28, 2006. Today, we release again so that readers can have a more comprehensive picture of such development.

Four years after HKUPOP was established, in June 1995, we began our regular surveys on the ratings of top 5 Chinese leaders. The questions include Hong Kong people's recognition and extent of support towards cross-strait political leaders. In May 1997, shortly before Hong Kong's handover, the survey was changed from "Top 5" to "Top 10", and the results were released to public in June 1997 for the first time, whereas the ratings for "Top 5" survey also ended. From the beginning to its end, the "Top 5" survey was conducted once every two months. For the "Top 10" survey, its frequency was changed from once every two months in the beginning till October 1997, to once every four months to cope with the social conditions since then. Starting from March 2001, the frequency was changed again and the survey is now conducted once every six months.
Both "Top 5" and "Top 10" surveys are conducted in two stages. The question wordings are also identical. In the naming stage, the wordings used in the questionnaire are "Please name up to a certain number of contemporary political leaders in Mainland China and Taiwan that you are most familiar with." and multiple responses are allowed. In the rating stage, the question used is "Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to XXX, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate XXX?"
Regarding sample size, from the beginning to the end, the sample size of "Top 5" survey was set at slightly over 500. As for the "Top 10" survey, the sample size from the beginning to January 2000 was set at slightly over 500. From May 2000 onwards, it was increased to at least 1,000.
Our first findings of "Top 5" surveys in September 1996 or before as well as the findings of "Top 10" surveys in July 1997 or before were published in our newsletter POP Express. After our HKU POP Site was established in June 2000, the "Top 10" surveys were released online since April 2002. All previous findings published in our POP Express were also uploaded on-line in various formats. Yet, the "Top 5" surveys were never released online.