HKU POP SITE releases the first set of CE Election rolling poll wrap-up figuresBack

Press Release on March 9, 2007

Special Announcement

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases the first set of CE Election rolling poll wrap-up figures. The latest figures of such surveys have been released by the sponsors and used by them exclusively for at least 48 hours, before they are uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. Organizations wishing to join the sponsorship of these surveys are welcome to contact Miss Chau or Miss Pang at 2859-2988.

Background

In 1996, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted many rounds of surveys on the Chief Executive election, most of which were conducted after Tung Chee-hwa formally announced his intention to stand for the election. During the 2005 CE by-election, because a number of well-known political figures had declared their intention to stand, POP therefore also started our CE election polling routine. Between the end of January and early February this year, both Alan Leong and Donald Tsang embarked on their CE election campaigns, POP therefore switched on our CE election series accordingly. In our three rounds of feature survey, respondents were asked to rate the suitability of Leong and Tsang, as well as to vote hypothetically. The results have already been released some time ago.
The first set of CE Election rolling poll wrap-up figures released by POP today via the POP Site is similar to the three rounds of feature survey, in that respondents were asked to rate the suitability of the candidates to the post of CE, with 0 indicating absolutely not suitable, 100 indicating absolutely suitable and 50 indicating half-half. They were also asked to vote on the two candidates hypothetically. In-depth demographic analyses are also presented.

Latest Figures

As a general practice, the figures in each study have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the population census. The contact information of the studies are tabulated as follows:

Rolling surveys
Date of Surveys	26/2-1/3	27/2-2/3	28/2-3/3	1-4/3	2-5/3	3-6/3
Sample base	1,201	1,058	1,052	1,044	1,036	1,050
Overall response rate	65.3%	67.0%	64.9%	65.8%	63.3%	63.4%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95%conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%
Sampling error of ratings (at 95%conf. level)*	Please refer to the relevant frequency tables

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Rolling survey results of Donald Tsang are summarized below:

Rolling surveys	Donald Tsang
Date of surveys	26/2-1/3	27/2-2/3	28/2-3/3	1-4/3	2-5/3	3-6/3
Sample base	1,201	1,058	1,052	1,044	1,036	1,050
Overall response rate	65.3%	67.0%	64.9%	65.8%	63.3%	63.4%
Findings/errors*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding
Suitability ratings	70.1	70.8	70.3	70.8	70.5	70.5
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	66.3	66.8	65.3	67.1	65.4	64.8
Pro-China	80.8	80.9	80.1	79.3	78.0	79.4
Moderate	70.4	71.7	70.4	70.5	70.4	70.6
No preference	71.1	70.8	71.6	71.9	72.3	72.6

Hypothetical voting	74.2%	76.0%	75.8%	75.8%	77.8%	78.1%
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	58.4%	56.6%	55.2%	54.4%	60.5%	61.1%
Pro-China	91.4%	93.5%	95.2%	95.0%	96.6%	97.0%
Moderate	81.1%	83.3%	81.5%	81.2%	82.6%	81.9%
No preference	78.1%	79.9%	79.2%	78.9%	79.7%	81.4%

Our latest rolling survey (from March 3 to 6) shows that Donald Tsang's suitability rating was 70.5 marks which remained unchanged when compared with the last rolling survey (from March 2 to 5). As for the hypothetical voting, 78% supported Donald Tsang as the Chief Executive, with a 0.3-percentage-point increase.

Rolling surveys	Alan Leong
Date of surveys	26/2-1/3	27/2-2/3	28/2-3/3	1-4/3	2-5/3	3-6/3
Sample base	1,201	1,058	1,052	1,044	1,036	1,050
Overall response rate	65.3%	67.0%	64.9%	65.8%	63.3%	63.4%
Findings/errors*	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding
Suitability ratings	44.5	45.3	46.1	47.4	46.6	46.2
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	55.4	56.3	57.0	58.2	55.6	56.0
Pro-China	31.7	29.2	29.3	34.5	34.8	31.4
Moderate	41.1	43.1	44.7	45.6	45.5	44.5
No preference	40.6	41.9	42.7	44.4	43.8	43.9

Hypothetical voting	14.9%	14.8%	15.8%	15.9%	14.2%	14.7%
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	32.0%	33.2%	36.0%	38.7%	33.4%	35.0%
Pro-China	4.7%	3.3%	3.7%	3.8%	2.3%	2.0%
Moderate	7.7%	9.0%	11.6%	11.9%	11.6%	11.8%
No preference	10.6%	9.9%	9.6%	9.4%	6.8%	6.6%

Our latest rolling survey (from March 3 to 6) shows that Alan Leong scored 46.2 marks in terms of his suitability to be Chief Executive. This marked a drop of 0.4 mark when compared with the last rolling survey (from March 2 to 5). Regarding the hypothetical voting, 15% supported Leong, with a 0.5-percentage-point increase.

Concluding Remarks

Regarding the above-mentioned first rolling poll wrap-up figures, POP is not to provide commentary as the figures should be self-explanatory. In this press release, we have especially indicated the extent of support for each candidate with respect to the education level and political inclination of the respondents. This is because POP finds them worth-noted after analyzing the figures. The general public is welcome to analyze other demographic variables by viewing the details in our POP Site directly. POP would continuously monitor all the data changes from the rolling surveys, and gradually increase the daily sample size in order to better explain the daily changes of the figures. However, all the results will be first delivered to our sponsors for their use and release, and then uploaded to our POP Site after at least 48 hours. Please take note of this.

It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.