HKU POP SITE releases third round of survey on Chief Executive electionBack

Press Release on February 28, 2007

Special Announcement

The third round of Chief Executive election survey released by Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today is actually the last round of its type. Because the nomination period for CE Election will be officially closed tomorrow, followed almost immediately by the first election forum in the evening, we are going to switch our operation into releasing findings of election forum instant surveys and election rolling surveys. Such surveys would be released by the sponsors and used by them exclusively for 48 hours, before they are uploaded onto the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. Organizations wishing to join the sponsorship of these surveys are welcome to contact Miss Chau or Miss Pang at 2859-2988.

Background

In 1996, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted many rounds of surveys on the Chief Executive election, most of which were conducted after Tung Chee-hwa formally announced his intention to stand for the election. During the 2005 CE by-election, because a number of well-known political figures had declared their intention to stand, POP therefore also started our CE election polling routine. Between the end of January and early February this year, both Alan Leong and Donald Tsang embarked on their CE election campaigns, POP therefore switched on our CE election series accordingly. In our first and second rounds of survey, respondents were asked to rate the suitability of Leong and Tsang, as well as to vote hypothetically. The results have already been released some time ago.
The third round of survey released by POP today via the POP Site is similar to the first two rounds, in that respondents were asked to rate the suitability of the candidates to the post of CE, with 0 indicating absolutely not suitable, 100 indicating absolutely suitable and 50 indicating half-half. Respondents were also asked to vote on the two candidates hypothetically. In-depth demographic analyses are also presented.

Latest Figures

As a general practice, the figures in all three studies have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the population census. The contact information of the studies are tabulated as follows:

	First Round	Second Round	Third Round
Date of survey	2-7/2/07	12-14/2/07	22-26/2/07
Sample base	1,011	1,013	1,014
Overall response rate	63.6%	63.5%	60.2%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	Please refer to the relevant frequency tables

Ratings of the two candidates in terms of their suitability to be Chief Executive are summarized below:

		Donald Tsang				Alan Leong
	Sample base	Rating	Error*	Recognition rate	Latest change	Rating	Error*	Recognition rate	Latest change
All respondents	1,014	68.5	+/-1.3	97.5%	+0.3	44.4	+/-1.4	88.7%	-0.2
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	315	64.3	+/-2.2	98.7%	-0.7	52.7	+/-2.1	92.8%	-2.4
Pro-China	59	80.1	+/-4.4	100.0%	+2.7	31.3	+/-6.2	96.3%	+0.9
Moderate	372	67.9	+/-2.1	97.9%	-1.0	41.4	+/-2.3	90.6%	-1.8
No preference	228	71.6	+/-2.5	96.0%	+4.2	40.8	+/-3.3	81.1%	+0.4
Gender
Male	474	67.7	+/-1.9	96.8%	+0.5	41.8	+/-2.2	91.8%	-2.4
Female	540	69.2	+/-1.6	98.1%	+0.2	46.8	+/-1.9	86.0%	+1.8
Age
18-29	198	65.6	+/-2.5	99.3%	-0.8	48.5	+/-2.6	93.7%	+0.6
30-49	424	67.2	+/-1.9	98.8%	-1.3	44.1	+/-2.2	91.3%	-0.8
50 or above	363	72.1	+/-2.3	96.6%	+3.2	42.3	+/-2.7	85.6%	-0.3
Education Attainment
Primary or below	156	72.6	+/-3.8	96.0%	+1.4	47.2	+/-4.4	80.2%	+4.3
Secondary	531	67.8	+/-1.7	98.3%	-1.0	43.8	+/-1.9	89.1%	-0.5
Tertiary or above	308	67.6	+/-2.2	98.7%	+2.0	44.3	+/-2.5	94.7%	-2.2
Occupation
Executives and professionals	239	65.5	+/-2.7	98.4%	-0.6	40.9	+/-3.0	93.9%	-3.6
Clerical and service workers	228	67.7	+/-2.4	99.0%	-0.5	48.1	+/-2.5	90.6%	+1.4
Production workers	123	68.3	+/-3.8	98.9%	-1.4	42.9	+/-4.4	87.9%	+0.5
Students	66	68.1	+/-3.0	99.2%	+0.1	52.1	+/-3.1	95.6%	+2.6
Housewives	141	71.3	+/-3.5	98.5%	+1.7	46.1	+/-4.1	82.9%	+1.4
Class the family belonged to – self-defined:
Middle or above	409	68.5	+/-2.0	99.0%	+0.2	43.5	+/-2.3	91.6%	-1.1
Lower-middle or grassroots	561	68.2	+/-1.7	97.7%	+0.1	45.0	+/-1.9	88.4%	-0.3

Results of the hypothetical voting on the two candidates are summarized below:

		Donald Tsang			Alan Leong			Uncertain**
	Sample base	Percentage	Error*	Latest change	Percentage	Error*	Latest change	Percentage	Error*	Latest change
All respondents	1,014	73.5%	+/-3%	+0.6%	13.8%	+/-2%	-2.0%	12.7%	+/-2%	+1.4%
Political inclination – self-defined:
Pro-democracy	315	64.1%	+/-5%	+6.1%	25.2%	+/-5%	-10.4%	10.7%	+/-4%	+4.2%
Pro-China	59	96.6%	+/-4%	+5.0%	1.7%	+/-4%	-1.1%	1.7%	+/-4%	-3.9%
Moderate	372	77.0%	+/-4%	-2.4%	9.7%	+/-3%	-1.8%	13.2%	+/-3%	+4.2%
No preference	228	75.0%	+/-6%	+1.3%	7.7%	+/-4%	+1.0%	17.3%	+/-5%	-2.2%
Gender
Male	474	70.6%	+/-4%	+0.8%	16.9%	+/-3%	-3.6%	12.6%	+/-3%	+2.8%
Female	540	76.2%	+/-4%	+0.4%	11.0%	+/-3%	-0.7%	12.9%	+/-3%	+0.3%
Age
18-29	198	75.6%	+/-6%	+1.0%	14.2%	+/-5%	-0.3%	10.2%	+/-4%	-0.7%
30-49	424	73.4%	+/-4%	-2.6%	13.3%	+/-3%	-1.6%	13.3%	+/-3%	+4.3%
50 or above	363	73.9%	+/-5%	+5.6%	14.6%	+/-4%	-2.8%	11.5%	+/-3%	-2.8%
Education Attainment
Primary or below	156	78.1%	+/-7%	+4.7%	12.3%	+/-5%	+2.6%	9.6%	+/-5%	-7.3%
Secondary	531	75.0%	+/-4%	+0.7%	12.6%	+/-3%	-3.5%	12.4%	+/-3%	+2.8%
Tertiary or above	308	70.4%	+/-5%	-0.4%	16.6%	+/-4%	-1.6%	13.0%	+/-4%	+2.0%
Occupation
Executives and professionals	239	72.6%	+/-6%	+2.2%	16.0%	+/-5%	-2.7%	11.4%	+/-4%	+0.6%
Clerical and service workers	228	72.6%	+/-7%	+0.6%	13.0%	+/-5%	-4.8%	14.3%	+/-5%	+4.1%
Production workers	123	71.6%	+/-8%	-1.1%	21.6%	+/-7%	+4.5%	6.9%	+/-5%	-3.4%
Students	66	84.6%	+/-9%	+1.5%	10.8%	+/-8%	+2.3%	4.6%	+/-5%	-3.8%
Housewives	141	78.4%	+/-7%	+3.8%	12.2%	+/-5%	-0.5%	9.4%	+/-5%	-3.4%
Class the family belonged to – self-defined:
Middle or above	409	79.0%	+/-4%	+5.5%	11.1%	+/-3%	-3.7%	9.9%	+/-3%	-1.8%
Lower-middle or grassroots	561	69.7%	+/-5%	-2.5%	16.1%	+/-4%	-1.3%	14.1%	+/-4%	+3.8%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** "Uncertain" refers to those who answered "neither of them /abstention" and "don't know/hard to say" in the survey.

Our latest survey shows that Donald Tsang's suitability rating was 68.5 marks, while his recognition rate was 98%. Alan Leong scored 44.4 marks with a recognition rate of 89%. As for the hypothetical voting, 74% supported Donald Tsang as the Chief Executive while 14% supported Leong, 13% could not make up their mind.

Commentary

Basing on the results of the survey, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analyses:

(1) In terms of overall figures, Donald Tsang continues to be way ahead of Alan Leong both in terms of suitability rating and hypothetical voting, and among all demographic groups. The overall figures have not changed much since the last survey.

(2) Among the eye-catching group of self-proclaimed pro-democratic camp supporters, Leong's support has significantly dropped. He is now 12 points behind Tsang in terms of suitability rating, and 39 percentage points behind in terms of support rate.

(3) In terms of support rate, Tsang is now supported by 97% of those who claimed themselves to be pro-China, which is almost full saturation. Moreover, among those of age 50 or above, and among those who claimed themselves to be grassroots, Tsang's support has also significantly increased.

(4) As for Leong, his support among the self-proclaimed grassroots, males and those with secondary education, have all dropped significantly.

Robert Chung also observed, "Our latest survey conducted right before the first election forum shows that Leong is in a very disadvantaged position in terms of popularity. Tsang, on the other hand, has apparently captured the full support of pro-China respondents, while gaining ground slowly among the democrats. Whether Leong can turn the table through debating with Tsang in the election forum is something everybody is keen to know."

News About POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be tomorrow, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the Budget instant poll will be released. On March 6, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the HKSAR Government. The above schedule does not include our release of CE election forum instant surveys or election rolling surveys, which will be announced by the sponsors directly.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.